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Trainer profile

Liam Bailey

1,240 runners in the lifetime window · 85 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 7.1% of 210 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 22 Oct 2026.
Last runner 2 days ago 96% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
79–1,240
Wins / Runs
6.4%
Strike rate
n=1,240
277 (22%)
Placed
0.81
Fair A/E
n=1,227 · 0.70 incl. margin
−518.71
£1 level stake
n=1,240 at SP · −41.8%
£844k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.81).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,240 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 27.7% when favourite Billy Garritty: 8.7% from 333 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

The record is strongest at York (13.3%, n=30), clear of the yard's 6.4% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.6% (n=189, Fair A/E 0.64). The market has consistently overbet a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run: 3% strike, Fair A/E 0.46 and −59.00 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Billy Garritty rides 27% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.7% vs 6.4%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Heavy going (15.8%, n=38) and in Class 4 (10.8%, n=166). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1.8% over 109 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: How Bizarre (GB) — 8 wins from 74 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−3.8
n=189 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −75.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.3%−2.1
n=69 · A/E 0.86 · £1 +21.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.4
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8%+1.6
n=25 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
3%−3.4
n=101 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −59.00
When favourite
27.7%
n=47 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −6.46
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−0.1
n=207 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −88.99

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 15.8% vs 6.4% · n=38
At York 13.3% vs 6.4% · n=30
With Phil Dennis 0% vs 6.4% · n=35
In Class 4 10.8% vs 6.4% · n=166
Off a 61-180-day break 1.8% vs 6.4% · n=109
On last-time-out winners 11.1% vs 6.4% · n=81
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 1,190 76 6.4% −506.21
Hurdle 36 2 5.6% −6.00
Chase 13 1 7.7% −5.50
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 453 26 5.7% −202.49
Good 320 24 7.5% −112.59
Good to Firm 163 10 6.1% −84.50
Soft 136 9 6.6% −18.75
Good to Soft 130 4 3.1% −106.00
Heavy 38 6 15.8% +5.62

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 254 17 6.7% −72.12
Musselburgh 176 18 10.2% −30.75
Southwell (AW) 120 6 5% −67.12
Hamilton 113 5 4.4% −85.50
Catterick 105 3 2.9% −78.50
Ayr 94 5 5.3% −50.50
Ripon 40 4 10% −9.88
Wolverhampton (AW) 39 1 2.6% −32.50
Pontefract 38 2 5.3% −31.09
Chelmsford City (AW) 35 2 5.7% −25.75
Redcar 32 2 6.3% +23.50
York 30 4 13.3% +21.00
Beverley 27 3 11.1% −10.50
Doncaster 20 2 10% +0.50
Carlisle 18 0 0% −18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 732 41 5.6% −380.12
Class 5 316 20 6.3% −124.38
Class 4 166 18 10.8% +11.79
Class 3 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 65 14 21.5% 0.86 −19.96
2nd–3rd fav 192 26 13.5% 0.86 −46.75
4th–6th fav 410 28 6.8% 0.88 −133.00
7th+ in betting 573 11 1.9% 0.59 −319.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
How Bizarre (GB)from Kevin Ryan 74 8 26 29 Mar 24
Stroxx (IRE)from Tim Easterby 59 3 17 24 Mar 26
Quanah (IRE)from Mark H Tompkins 53 5 13 29 Oct 24
Stronsay (IRE)from Bryan Smart 51 2 10 30 May 23
Beneficiary (GB)from K R Burke 50 5 17 28 Apr 26
Yakhabar (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute 44 4 7 31 Jul 26
Clansman (GB)from Jedd O'Keeffe 41 8 17 1 Oct 26
Fanzone (IRE)from Ian Williams 35 1 11 14 Sep 24
Hajjam (GB)from David O'Meara 35 2 7 6 Oct 22
Dicko The Legend (IRE)from Roger Ingram 32 3 12 31 Aug 26
Framley Garth (IRE)from Lawrence Mullaney 32 0 2 23 Nov 21
Lagenda (GB)from Andrew Crook 31 3 6 30 Jul 21
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 85 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 50 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Lawrence Mullaney (8) and David O'Meara (4); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6610857684693
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderBilly Garritty
27% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 1.10
RiderRWSR£1
Billy Garritty 333 29 8.7% −53.47
Daniel Tudhope 159 15 9.4% −72.25
David Nolan 77 3 3.9% −45.00
Jack Garritty 64 1 1.6% −59.00
Jason Hart 40 3 7.5% −11.50
Sam James 35 1 2.9% −12.00
Phil Dennis 35 0 0% −35.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
79
Archived wins
£844k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 15 wins
Say What You See (IRE) — Racing League Race 36 Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Southwell (AW) · Aug 2025 · Class 4
£18,039
Dicko The Legend (IRE) — Tomahawk Restaurants Handicap York · Jul 2025 · Class 4
£12,885
Say What You See (IRE) — Event Traffic Control Handicap (GBBPlus Race) York · Jun 2026 · Class 4
£12,885
Notable horses
How Bizarre (GB) Clansman (GB) Quanah (IRE) Beneficiary (GB) Say What You See (IRE) Yakhabar (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dandy Man (IRE) 9.8% · 9–92
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,927 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Society Rock (IRE) 10.8% · 8–74
Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,836 runs since 2008 (175 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 233.
Ardad (IRE) 9.6% · 7–73
Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,512 runs since 2008 (350 horses).
Camacho (GB) 4.3% · 3–69
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,320 runs since 2008 (596 horses).
Gale Force Ten (GB) 3.9% · 2–51
Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,129 runs since 2008 (74 horses).
Profitable (IRE) 10% · 5–50
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,417 runs since 2008 (357 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,240 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,240 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2019 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Hectic (GB)J: William Pyle Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 11/2
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Pit Boss (GB)J: Cian Horgan Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 8/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Henry Halflight (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Awc Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 33/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Tactical Blitz (GB)J: Luke Morris All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 28/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Pit Boss (GB)J: Andrew Mullen Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1
10 Oct 26 York Say What You See (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 10.5f · Soft · 18 ran 4th 11/1
01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Henry Halflight (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 66/1
01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Clansman (GB)J: Billy Garritty Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 14/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Something (GB)J: Billy Garritty Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 4th 33/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Wait For It (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 1st 6/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Pit Boss (GB)J: Billy Garritty Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 10th 250/1
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Protest Rally (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 9/1
24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Hectic (GB)J: Billy Garritty Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 9/1
24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tactical Blitz (GB)J: Billy Garritty Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 28/1
21 Sep 26 Hamilton Winter Crown (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Start Your Racingtv Free Trial Now Confined Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No Win In 2026)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 33/1
21 Sep 26 Hamilton Ottawa (GB)J: Billy Garritty Start Your Racingtv Free Trial Now Confined Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No Win In 2026)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1
15 Sep 26 Redcar Henry Halflight (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap Stakes (Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Series Qual.)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 150/1
13 Sep 26 Doncaster Say What You See (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Betfred Mallard Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 14.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 6/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Protest Rally (IRE)J: Daniel Tudhope Rmg Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 66/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Pit Boss (GB)J: Billy Garritty Fifth Regiment Royal Artillery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Liam Bailey's strike rate?
Liam Bailey has won 79 of 1,240 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.4% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Liam Bailey do best at?
York by strike rate: 4 wins from 30 runners (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Liam Bailey?
Billy Garritty, with 333 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (8.7%).
Is Liam Bailey in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Liam Bailey's Fair A/E?
0.81, from 1,227 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).