Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 9% (56 runs, true-first definition).
Deterministic profile computed from 929 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Feb–Mar31.7% when favouriteSends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (18.5%, n=65), clear of the yard's 6.1% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 2.3% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.40). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.48 and −144.00 to a £1 stake over 186 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well in Class 4 (27.8%, n=36) and in Chase races (12.5%, n=56). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 55 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree (Apr 2005, £46,400). The stable star of the record: Star Links (USA) — 11 wins from 79 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.7%−3.4
n=186 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −144.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
2.3%−3.8
n=44 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −33.00
Debutants · first career start
5.4%−0.7
n=74 · A/E 1.63 · £1 −14.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8.9%+2.8
n=56 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +2.13
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
3.6%−2.5
n=56 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −44.50
When favourite
31.7%
n=41 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −0.95
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%−1.9
n=408 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −197.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.1
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 427.8% vs 6.1% · n=36
With Davy Russell26.7% vs 6.1% · n=30
With C&D winners21.6% vs 6.1% · n=51
At Wolverhampton (AW)18.5% vs 6.1% · n=65
In Chase races12.5% vs 6.1% · n=56
Off a break of 180+ days0% vs 6.1% · n=55
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat593366.1%−259.33
Hurdle207125.8%−114.74
NH Flat7322.7%−47.00
Chase56712.5%−7.25
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)260207.7%−112.83
Soft18173.9%−114.62
Good168127.1%−65.87
Good to Firm13953.6%−87.00
Heavy12286.6%−27.25
Good to Soft4536.7%−15.00
Firm14214.3%−5.75
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)17352.9%−111.08
Navan8533.5%−59.75
Wolverhampton (AW)651218.5%+7.75
Fairyhouse5447.4%−24.25
Naas5024%−22.00
Down Royal4312.3%−32.00
Curragh3200%−32.00
Ayr28310.7%−4.12
Musselburgh28310.7%−5.50
Limerick2528%+25.00
Roscommon2328.7%−9.62
Bellewstown2200%−22.00
Sligo2129.5%−6.00
Leopardstown2100%−21.00
Galway2129.5%+9.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 678810.3%−33.00
Class 540410%−22.25
Class 4361027.8%+35.13
Class 318211.1%−5.00
Class 11300%−13.00
Class 28112.5%−2.00
Class 7600%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite561323.2%1.01−15.95
2nd–3rd fav1031615.5%1.14−20.37
4th–6th fav213188.5%1.19−30.00
7th+ in betting557101.8%0.61−362.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f280165.7%−90.83
1m5f – 2m15842.5%−139.12
2m1f – 2m4f150128%−37.62
1m – 1m1f149128.1%−37.25
Under 6f8478.3%−54.75
2m5f – 3m5559.1%−19.25
1m2f – 1m4f5112%−47.50
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200810187.9%−54.00
200913696.6%−90.37
201010665.7%−54.62
201156610.7%+9.25
20125423.7%−34.00
20137356.8%−12.00
20148344.8%−24.00
20157345.5%−55.83
201646613%+4.75
20173300%−33.00
20184025%−30.00
20195535.5%−33.50
20202214.5%+19.00
20212414.2%−13.00
20221700%−17.00
20231000%−10.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps543366.6%−232.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners286144.9%−156.87
11-13 runners234187.7%−72.50
8-10 runners177158.5%−41.50
17+ runners17552.9%−128.12
5-7 runners5559.1%−27.33
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 130 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Hannon Snr (4) and R P O'Keeffe (3); 30 had their first archived run for this yard.
40 have since run for another yard, most often for John Butler (5) and Chelsea Banham (3); 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
611851531061264
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
87
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£929k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 16 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cregg House (IRE) — Topham Handicap Chase Aintree · Apr 2005 · Class 2
Progeny have won 12.2% of 691 runs since 2008 (46 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 16.5% from 212. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 16.2% from 198.
Erewhon (USA)2.7% · 2–74
Progeny have won 2% of 249 runs since 2009 (29 horses).
Royal Applause (GB)15.4% · 6–39
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,162 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 850.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,442 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,442 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 10 November 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Donohoe's strike rate?
S Donohoe has won 57 of 929 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S Donohoe do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 65 runners (18.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is S Donohoe's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 926 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Donohoe·SR 6.1%·A/E 0.97
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