What is Harry Derham's strike rate?

Harry Derham has won 184 of 878 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 21% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harry Derham do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 35 runners (37.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Harry Derham?

Paul O'Brien, with 574 runners since 2008 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (22.5%).

Is Harry Derham in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.3%. That is below the baseline of 21% since 2008.

What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 878 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Harry Derham

878 runners in the lifetime window · 159 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.3% of 325 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 30 Oct 2026.

Runners today 96% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

184–878

Wins / Runs

21%

Strike rate

n=878

368 (42%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=878 · 0.93 incl. margin

−121.85

£1 level stake

n=878 at SP · −13.9%

£2.43m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 21% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08). New recruits from other yards win at 32% first time out (98 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 878 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 24.9% 43% when favourite Paul O'Brien: 22.5% from 574 New recruits: 31.6% Sends off the favourite in 25% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Huntingdon (37.1%, n=35), clear of the yard's 21% baseline. It is weakest at Taunton (8.3% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 31.6% (n=98, Fair A/E 1.39), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 15.7% (n=51, Fair A/E 1.25). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 24.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.26 and +13.79 to a £1 stake over 245 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 16 runners in the last 14 days (6.3%, 14.7pts below the 21% baseline). Paul O'Brien rides 65% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (22.5%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Flat races — 8.6% over 35 runners, 12.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.67 across 163 runners (12.3% strike, −50.79 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 8 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Channor Real Estate Group Novice Hurdle at Punchestown (Apr 2026, £73,625). The stable star of the record: Brentford Hope (GB) — 6 wins from 21 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 21% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

24.9%+3.9

n=245 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +13.79

New recruits · first run for the yard

31.6%+10.6

n=98 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +43.45

Debutants · first career start

26.2%+5.2

n=61 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +21.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

28.8%+7.8

n=52 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +11.35

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

21.7%+0.7

n=23 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +1.17

When favourite

43%

n=221 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −10.88

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

16.8%−4.2

n=131 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −46.83

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

15.7%−5.3

n=51 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +0.24

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Huntingdon 37.1% vs 21% · n=35

With new recruits 31.6% vs 21% · n=98

At Taunton 8.3% vs 21% · n=36

Over 2m5f – 3m 12.3% vs 21% · n=163

In Flat races 8.6% vs 21% · n=35

With Harry Reed 9.7% vs 21% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 621 135 21.7% −58.87

Chase 175 35 20% −26.04

NH Flat 47 11 23.4% −12.79

Flat 35 3 8.6% −24.15

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 288 75 26% +5.41

Good to Soft 285 52 18.2% −54.01

Soft 222 44 19.8% −31.27

Heavy 52 10 19.2% −21.09

Standard (AW) 19 1 5.3% −15.75

Good to Firm 12 2 16.7% −5.14

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newbury 71 9 12.7% −14.48

Chepstow 44 9 20.5% −13.14

Wincanton 43 10 23.3% +2.00

Doncaster 43 9 20.9% −8.93

Kempton 41 11 26.8% −1.26

Taunton 36 3 8.3% −18.17

Huntingdon 35 13 37.1% +19.60

Market Rasen 30 7 23.3% −4.12

Uttoxeter 29 5 17.2% −3.61

Ascot 27 6 22.2% +1.70

Musselburgh 27 7 25.9% +6.20

Warwick 26 8 30.8% +11.68

Cheltenham 25 2 8% −16.17

Haydock 24 8 33.3% +5.17

Plumpton 24 6 25% −6.46

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 385 96 24.9% −41.18

Class 3 185 37 20% −36.26

Class 5 133 25 18.8% −23.93

Class 2 96 17 17.7% +1.78

Class 1 73 9 12.3% −16.26

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 245 98 40% 1.07 −25.18

2nd–3rd fav 305 62 20.3% 1.08 −38.67

4th–6th fav 216 19 8.8% 1.07 −34.00

7th+ in betting 112 5 4.5% 1.32 −24.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

91.8% completed · 796 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 175 85.1% 8 3 15 0 0

Hurdle 621 93.7% 5 5 27 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Il Va De Soi (FR)then Donald McCain 22 4 8 20 May 26

Brentford Hope (GB)from Richard Hughes 21 6 11 28 Feb 26

Shared (GB)from Harry & Roger Charlton 17 4 6 11 Oct 25

One Horse Town (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 16 5 10 24 Oct 26

Nordic Tiger (FR) 15 3 6 26 Dec 25

Dargiannini (IRE)from Paul Nicholls 14 4 5 25 Apr 26

Monviel (IRE)from Philip Hobbs 14 1 4 3 May 25

Fourofakind (IRE)from J P Murtagh · then Lizzie Quinlan 14 2 7 30 Jun 24

Teddy Blue (GER)from Gary & Josh Moore 13 4 6 25 Apr 26

Pure Carbon (GB) 13 3 7 19 Apr 26

Givemefive (IRE)from J P Murtagh 13 5 8 10 May 25

Hard Frost (FR)from Paul Nicholls 13 1 6 9 May 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 159 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 40 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Oliver Sherwood (6) and Paul Nicholls (6); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Lizzie Quinlan (2) and Sarah-Jayne Davies (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 16 6.3% · −14.7pts vs baseline

Last 14 days6.3%

Lifetime base21%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

17192522253325206192122

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaul O'Brien

65% of all rides
22.5% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

Paul O'Brien 574 129 22.5% −19.76

Alice Stevens 53 13 24.5% +3.53

Harry Reed 31 3 9.7% −16.42

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→

184

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.43m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 71 wins

Le Frimeur (FR) — Channor Real Estate Group Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2026 · Grade 1

£73,625

Washington (GB) — Bar One Racing '100% Football Acca Boost On Self Service Betting Terminals' Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Fairyhouse · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

Teddy Blue (GER) — Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Ascot · Nov 2025 · Class 1

£56,950

Notable horses

Brentford Hope (GB) Ascending Lark (GB) One Horse Town (IRE) Givemefive (IRE) Jasmine Bliss (GB) Il Va De Soi (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Diamond Boy (FR) 17.5% · 7–40

Progeny have won 12% of 2,280 runs since 2008 (286 horses).

Almanzor (FR) 24.2% · 8–33

Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,103 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 149. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.9% from 302.

Westerner (GB) 27.6% · 8–29

Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,843 runs since 2008 (942 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Blue Bresil (FR) 24% · 6–25

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,512 runs since 2008 (458 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 12% · 3–25

Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,989 runs since 2008 (698 horses).

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 29.2% · 7–24

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,855 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 878 · newest first

The latest 50 of 878 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2022 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Pass The Buck (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 11/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Washington (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Bet365 Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 13/8F

29 Oct 26 Stratford King Rolo (GB)J: Paul O'Brien EBF And Charlie Longsdon Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 50/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford Rosie Mahler (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien 4 X 4 Tyres Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 15/2

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Kauto Line (FR)J: Paul O'Brien Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 6/1

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Gallivanted (FR)J: Paul O'Brien Host Your Conference At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 5/2

26 Oct 26 Hereford Our Wee Horse (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 5/6F

26 Oct 26 Hereford Jerseygeordie (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Betting.Bet Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 3rd 1/1F

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Ollierob (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Book Boxing Day At Market Rasen Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 28/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham One Horse Town (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Masterson Holdings Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 3/1

22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Escapeandevade (IRE)J: Calum Hogan bettingsites.co.uk Fast Withdrawal Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Crystello (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien bettingsites.co.uk Quickest Withdrawal Bookies Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 5/2J

21 Oct 26 Worcester Aeropress (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Richard And Ann Hitchings Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (herring Queen Mares' Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 2/1J

21 Oct 26 Worcester Poets Pearl (IRE)J: Harry Reed Richard And Ann Hitchings Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Mares' Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 200/1

21 Oct 26 Worcester Boombox (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Richard And Ann Hitchings Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Mares' Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 13/8

17 Oct 26 Stratford Ignore The Door (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 9/2

13 Oct 26 Hereford Siorai (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran PU 5/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Washington (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 7th 18/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Gallivanted (FR)J: Paul O'Brien Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 3/1F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Dundeelin (IRE)J: Calum Hogan Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Harry Derham's strike rate?: Harry Derham has won 184 of 878 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 21% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Derham do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 35 runners (37.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Harry Derham?: Paul O'Brien, with 574 runners since 2008 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (22.5%).
Is Harry Derham in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.3%. That is below the baseline of 21% since 2008.
What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 878 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.