What is John Butler's strike rate?

John Butler has won 440 of 4,406 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Butler do best at?

Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 48 runners (14.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Butler?

Darragh Keenan, with 266 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (6%).

Is John Butler in form?

In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 10% since 2008.

What is John Butler's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 4,382 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Butler

4,406 runners in the lifetime window · 516 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.9% of 403 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

Last runner yesterday 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

440–4,406

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=4,406

1,166 (27%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=4,382 · 0.89 incl. margin

−1,240.05

£1 level stake

n=4,406 at SP · −28.1%

£3.52m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 230 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 13% (186 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,406 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar Fresh horses: 10.1% 37.9% when favourite Darragh Keenan: 6% from 266 Headgear returns: 12.9% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

It is weakest at Haydock (0% over 51 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.53). A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run are the standout value angle: 12.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.35 and +19.99 to a £1 stake over 186 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 18 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 10pts below the 10% baseline). Darragh Keenan rides 6% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (6% vs 10%, A/E 0.87). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.2%, n=169). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Celebrate ITM's 200th Ire Voucher Winner Fillies' Handicap at York (Aug 2022, £51,540). The stable star of the record: Stand Guard (GB) — 17 wins from 37 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.1%+0.1

n=683 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −39.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.9%−3.1

n=335 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −12.69

Debutants · first career start

3.7%−6.3

n=215 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −95.38

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.5%−2.5

n=147 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +57.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.9%+2.9

n=186 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +19.99

When favourite

37.9%

n=398 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +32.26

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.7%−2.3

n=1,028 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −341.36

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.9%−7.1

n=34 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −29.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Oisin Murphy 31.6% vs 10% · n=38

On last-time-out winners 18.2% vs 10% · n=407

With Billy Loughnane 22.2% vs 10% · n=36

With C&D winners 16.1% vs 10% · n=920

At Haydock 0% vs 10% · n=51

Off a 0-7-day break 17.2% vs 10% · n=169

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,296 429 10% −1,251.00

Hurdle 58 4 6.9% −11.17

NH Flat 35 4 11.4% +5.12

Chase 17 3 17.6% +17.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 3,040 337 11.1% −817.08

Good 430 33 7.7% −101.47

Good to Firm 412 35 8.5% −101.49

Soft 225 14 6.2% −105.63

Good to Soft 224 17 7.6% −66.88

Heavy 66 3 4.5% −43.00

Firm 9 1 11.1% −4.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 883 102 11.6% −210.99

Kempton (AW) 860 89 10.3% −264.75

Lingfield (AW) 506 64 12.6% −138.39

Chelmsford (AW) 345 28 8.1% −119.95

Southwell (AW) 267 32 12% −92.13

Newcastle (AW) 179 22 12.3% +9.13

Yarmouth 176 11 6.3% −55.25

Brighton 102 14 13.7% −9.07

Newmarket 94 8 8.5% −35.63

Nottingham 87 4 4.6% −44.50

Leicester 78 4 5.1% −59.12

Windsor 74 6 8.1% −9.17

York 55 7 12.7% +52.00

Haydock 51 0 0% −51.00

Bath 48 7 14.6% −21.17

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,927 221 11.5% −507.99

Class 5 1,434 141 9.8% −298.68

Class 4 657 50 7.6% −311.50

Class 3 178 13 7.3% −3.50

Class 2 131 8 6.1% −61.12

Class 7 44 6 13.6% −26.59

Class 1 33 1 3% −28.67

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 460 163 35.4% 1.21 +21.14

2nd–3rd fav 797 146 18.3% 1.13 −14.69

4th–6th fav 1,305 92 7% 0.92 −227.50

7th+ in betting 1,844 39 2.1% 0.69 −1,019.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,605 144 9% −629.53

1m – 1m1f 1,194 108 9% −439.09

1m2f – 1m4f 850 94 11.1% −116.49

Under 6f 454 59 13% −16.34

1m5f – 2m 248 29 11.7% −29.93

2m1f – 2m4f 43 5 11.6% −3.67

2m5f – 3m 9 1 11.1% −2.00

Over 3m 3 0 0% −3.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2012 107 12 11.2% −42.70

2013 99 13 13.1% −58.25

2014 136 17 12.5% −70.75

2015 38 8 21.1% +9.35

2016 146 18 12.3% +60.21

2017 297 34 11.4% −51.00

2018 364 33 9.1% −87.13

2019 369 30 8.1% −113.79

2020 277 24 8.7% −58.74

2021 414 34 8.2% −115.13

2022 467 58 12.4% −75.81

2023 531 37 7% −212.36

2024 465 34 7.3% −248.93

2025 362 32 8.8% −138.19

2026 334 56 16.8% −36.83

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,472 361 10.4% −968.82

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,683 181 10.8% −367.04

11-13 runners 1,619 120 7.4% −697.16

5-7 runners 578 79 13.7% −52.20

14-16 runners 418 36 8.6% −117.72

17+ runners 58 4 6.9% −2.00

2-4 runners 50 20 40% −3.93

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Split Elevens (GB) 87 14 40 28 Oct 26

Soar Above (GB) 68 8 20 10 Dec 25

Uzincso (GB) 60 8 18 26 Oct 26

Solanna (GB) 59 10 25 30 Oct 26

Weloof (FR)from Ed Dunlop 55 4 14 13 May 24

Martineo (GB)from William Haggas 50 4 16 26 Jun 23

Haveoneyerself (IRE) 50 8 18 4 Oct 22

King Crimson (GB)from Mick Channon 48 5 14 12 Sep 22

Cat Royale (IRE)from Jane Chapple-Hyam 48 3 16 6 Oct 20

Inaam (IRE)from Richard Fahey 47 6 12 13 May 23

Come On Dave (IRE)from David Nicholls 46 9 19 30 Aug 19

Sophar Sogood (IRE)from Paul D'Arcy 43 5 11 15 Dec 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 516 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 18 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 41 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul D'Arcy (4) and William Haggas (3); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Martin Dunne (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 18 0% · −10.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

Lifetime base10%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12121410119121097710

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDarragh Keenan

6% of all rides
6% SR · A/E 0.87

RiderRWSR£1

Darragh Keenan 266 16 6% −117.00

Luke Morris 253 25 9.9% −86.49

Daniel Muscutt 238 35 14.7% −78.17

Adam Kirby 217 36 16.6% −56.61

Liam Keniry 212 22 10.4% −62.67

David Egan 208 27 13% +38.23

George Wood 145 7 4.8% −112.41

Tim Clark 118 5 4.2% −59.00

Grace McEntee 111 8 7.2% −72.05

J F Egan 111 17 15.3% +60.50

Dylan Hogan 85 8 9.4% +16.12

Tom Queally 84 11 13.1% −26.51

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

440

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.52m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 58 wins

Designer (GB) — Celebrate ITM's 200th Ire Voucher Winner Fillies' Handicap York · Aug 2022 · Class 2

£51,540

Designer (GB) — Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies' Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2023 · Class 2

£51,540

Farhan (IRE) — Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2022 · Class 2

£51,540

Notable horses

Stand Guard (GB) Split Elevens (GB) Solanna (GB) Come On Dave (IRE) Soar Above (GB) Uzincso (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Zoffany (IRE) 8.3% · 10–121

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,776 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 12.1% · 12–99

Progeny have won 11.8% of 16,034 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Power (GB) 13.3% · 13–98

Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,725 runs since 2016 (195 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.3% from 353. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.2% from 161.

Ajaya (GB) 16.1% · 14–87

Progeny have won 10.8% of 268 runs since 2020 (17 horses).

Pearl Secret (GB) 12.7% · 10–79

Progeny have won 9.8% of 896 runs since 2020 (73 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13% from 131. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.6% from 307. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.6% from 337.

Red Clubs (IRE) 18.2% · 14–77

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,131 runs since 2011 (143 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.5% from 127.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,406 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,406 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 January 2012 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Foxy Night (IRE)J: David Egan AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 6 ran 4th 16/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Metallo (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 15/8F

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Beechwood Glory (IRE)J: David Egan AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 2/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Solanna (GB)J: Sean Levey German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 22/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Gattino (IRE)J: Sean Levey German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool British Ebf Novice Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only) (Div II)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 50/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Split Elevens (GB)J: David Egan Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 2nd 9/2

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Conciliate (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 7th 22/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Goomah (IRE)J: David Egan Set Your Limits With Unibet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 5th 2/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kaaranah (IRE)J: David Egan Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 5/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Love Alive (GB)J: David Egan Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 14/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Uzincso (GB)J: David Egan Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Fallacious Promise (GB)J: Luke Morris Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 8th 12/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Rastnet (IRE)J: Callum Rodriguez Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 9/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Ghost Story (IRE)J: David Egan William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 2nd 6/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bofa Beach (GB)J: David Egan All-Weather Championship Is Back Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 3/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Rhythm N Rock (IRE)J: Luke Catton CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Spring Bloom (GB)J: David Probert CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 16/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Arbaawy (GB)J: Sean Levey CopyBet Pay First Past The Post Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 4/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sea The Light (IRE)J: Robert Havlin attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 14/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Senor Cortez (IRE)J: Ray Dawson Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 17/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Butler's strike rate?: John Butler has won 440 of 4,406 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Butler do best at?: Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 48 runners (14.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Butler?: Darragh Keenan, with 266 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (6%).
Is John Butler in form?: In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 10% since 2008.
What is John Butler's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 4,382 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.