What is Lee Smyth's strike rate?

Lee Smyth has won 48 of 1,010 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lee Smyth do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 11 wins from 69 runners (15.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Lee Smyth?

Chris Hayes, with 76 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (13.2%).

What is Lee Smyth's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 1,008 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Lee Smyth

1,010 runners in the lifetime window · 119 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jul 2024 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

48–1,010

Wins / Runs

4.8%

Strike rate

n=1,010

136 (14%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=1,008 · 0.80 incl. margin

−302.45

£1 level stake

n=1,010 at SP · −29.9%

£397k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 10% (39 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,010 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb Chris Hayes: 13.2% from 76 Headgear returns: 10.3%

The read

The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (15.9%, n=69) and Sligo (10.3%, n=39) — all clear of the yard's 4.8% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 10.3% (n=39, Fair A/E 2.17), but new recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=63, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −218.80 to a £1 stake over 481 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Chris Hayes rides 8% of the entries and beats the yard's average (13.2% vs 4.8%, A/E 1.70) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (10.6%, n=113). The stable star of the record: Adams Barbour (IRE) — 7 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.8%−2.0

n=180 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −17.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−4.8

n=63 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −63.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−4.8

n=57 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −57.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.1%+0.3

n=59 · A/E 2.13 · £1 −12.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.3%+5.5

n=39 · A/E 2.17 · £1 −10.00

When favourite

34.8%

n=23 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +3.55

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.5%−1.3

n=481 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −218.80

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.8

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Wolverhampton (AW) 15.9% vs 4.8% · n=69

With Chris Hayes 13.2% vs 4.8% · n=76

On last-time-out winners 13.5% vs 4.8% · n=52

Off a 0-7-day break 10.6% vs 4.8% · n=113

With C&D winners 10% vs 4.8% · n=160

At Sligo 10.3% vs 4.8% · n=39

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 968 48 5% −260.45

Hurdle 29 0 0% −29.00

NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Chase 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 456 31 6.8% +29.05

Good 205 4 2% −164.50

Soft 134 5 3.7% −85.00

Good to Firm 119 5 4.2% −54.50

Good to Soft 61 3 4.9% +7.50

Heavy 35 0 0% −35.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 379 20 5.3% +8.95

Down Royal 80 2 2.5% −67.50

Ayr 75 4 5.3% −0.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 69 11 15.9% +28.10

Hamilton 44 2 4.5% −18.00

Bellewstown 44 1 2.3% −33.00

Curragh 43 0 0% −43.00

Sligo 39 4 10.3% +9.00

Navan 38 2 5.3% −2.00

Naas 35 0 0% −35.00

Leopardstown 31 0 0% −31.00

Fairyhouse 29 0 0% −29.00

Gowran Park 27 1 3.7% −23.75

Tipperary 12 0 0% −12.00

Roscommon 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 111 10 9% −10.15

Class 5 76 5 6.6% +0.00

Class 1 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 4 15 1 6.7% −4.00

Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 7 2 1 50% +8.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 27 10 37% 1.56 +9.05

2nd–3rd fav 73 9 12.3% 0.98 −22.50

4th–6th fav 188 14 7.4% 0.99 −46.00

7th+ in betting 722 15 2.1% 0.76 −243.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 330 15 4.5% −127.05

1m – 1m1f 295 18 6.1% −23.75

1m2f – 1m4f 183 5 2.7% −60.00

Under 6f 124 9 7.3% −64.65

1m5f – 2m 61 1 1.6% −10.00

2m1f – 2m4f 15 0 0% −15.00

2m5f – 3m 2 0 0% −2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 16 1 6.3% −5.00

2009 96 6 6.3% −27.50

2010 86 2 2.3% −68.00

2011 47 1 2.1% −41.50

2012 43 1 2.3% −38.00

2013 55 2 3.6% −34.50

2014 64 3 4.7% −16.50

2015 84 5 6% −20.00

2016 58 3 5.2% −14.50

2017 79 4 5.1% −6.50

2018 87 5 5.7% −40.65

2019 38 1 2.6% −4.00

2020 34 2 5.9% +88.00

2021 76 7 9.2% −12.75

2022 93 5 5.4% −7.05

2023 34 0 0% −34.00

2024 20 0 0% −20.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 727 43 5.9% −54.45

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 365 14 3.8% −145.25

11-13 runners 305 20 6.6% +77.75

8-10 runners 178 10 5.6% −112.45

17+ runners 87 0 0% −87.00

5-7 runners 68 3 4.4% −33.00

2-4 runners 7 1 14.3% −2.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Norville (IRE)from David Evans 53 3 11 9 May 17

Cheers Buddy (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 49 6 11 18 Aug 17

Adams Barbour (IRE) 48 7 13 16 Feb 24

Spirituoso (GB)from George Margarson 31 2 8 2 Dec 22

Glenbank King (IRE)from R K Watson 29 2 3 12 Jun 21

Penelope Pitstop (GB)from Keith Dalgleish 29 0 8 30 Aug 17

Duquesa Beach (IRE) 27 2 8 17 Nov 21

Duncan Of Scotland (IRE) 27 3 8 17 Aug 18

King's Jester (IRE)from J J Lambe · then J J Lambe 27 1 4 9 Sep 11

Silver Nemo (IRE)from Shaun Keightley 25 0 3 21 Jun 24

Obe Brave (GB)from Richard Fahey 22 2 4 2 Jun 10

King's Wharf (IRE)from David Evans · then W P Mullins 18 0 1 26 Sep 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 119 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 35 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Keith Dalgleish (4) and David Evans (2); 25 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard, most often for Adrian McGuinness (5) and J J Lambe (3); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9106345334476

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderChris Hayes

8% of all rides
13.2% SR · A/E 1.70

RiderRWSR£1

Chris Hayes 76 10 13.2% +35.25

Siobhan Rutledge 52 4 7.7% −34.25

D J Moran 45 1 2.2% −34.00

Rory Cleary 41 0 0% −41.00

Robbie Colgan 35 0 0% −35.00

James Sullivan 34 2 5.9% −9.00

Shane B Kelly 32 2 6.3% −1.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→

Archived wins

£397k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 7 wins

Spirituoso (GB) — Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (45-65) Dundalk (AW) · Mar 2022

£8,850

My Brother (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Median Auction Maiden Sligo · Jun 2016

£8,303

Polly Glide (IRE) — British Stallion Studs Captain J C Stewart Ebf Fillies' Handicap Hamilton · Jun 2018 · Class 4

£8,022

Notable horses

Adams Barbour (IRE) Cheers Buddy (IRE) Norville (IRE) Duncan Of Scotland (IRE) Ty Rock Brandy (IRE) Spirituoso (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Elusive City (USA) 5.7% · 3–53

Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,429 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,123.

Epaulette (AUS) 7.7% · 4–52

Progeny have won 9.1% of 3,067 runs since 2017 (221 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 173. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 222.

Elzaam (AUS) 13.7% · 7–51

Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,530 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 327.

Acclamation (GB) 12.2% · 6–49

Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Roderic O'connor (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,341 runs since 2015 (166 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.5% from 126. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.7% from 224. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.3% from 143.

King's Best (USA) 2.9% · 1–35

Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,010 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,010 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 July 2008 to 19 July 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Jul 24 Down Royal Astral Beat (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Proparamedics Handicap (47-65)5f · Good · 12 ran 12th 20/1

21 Jun 24 Down Royal Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Laura Nicholas Memorial Handicap (47-65)7f · Good · 13 ran 10th 50/1

21 Jun 24 Down Royal Astral Beat (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy G Dunlop Electrical Handicap5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 80/1

08 Jun 24 Navan Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (47-70)5f · Good · 16 ran 14th 28/1

08 Jun 24 Navan Just Another (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (47-70)5f · Good · 16 ran 11th 125/1

13 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Purring Along (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1

12 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Gianh River (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Friday 12th July Ladies Day At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 125/1

12 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Grand National Lucky Dip At BetVictor Handicap (47-65)5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 20/1

05 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Gianh River (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Gateway Hotel Dundalk Race & Stay Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 125/1

05 Apr 24 Dundalk (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Gateway Hotel Dundalk Race & Stay Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 66/1

22 Mar 24 Dundalk (AW) Astral Beat (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Sky Bet Request A Bet Handicap (47-65)5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 40/1

16 Feb 24 Dundalk (AW) Adams Barbour (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 8/1

14 Feb 24 Dundalk (AW) Gianh River (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Put The Fun In Fundraising At Dundalk Handicap (47-65)6f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 66/1

14 Feb 24 Dundalk (AW) Adams Barbour (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Put The Fun In Fundraising At Dundalk Handicap (47-65)6f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 20/1

31 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 25/1

26 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) Gianh River (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 150/1

26 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) The Gray Chapter (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Join Us On Our Social Channels Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 100/1

26 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) Adams Barbour (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-65)5f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 16/1

26 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) Astral Beat (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-65)5f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 25/1

16 Jan 24 Dundalk (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Gateway Hotel Dundalk Race & Stay Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)6f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lee Smyth's strike rate?: Lee Smyth has won 48 of 1,010 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lee Smyth do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 11 wins from 69 runners (15.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lee Smyth?: Chris Hayes, with 76 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (13.2%).
What is Lee Smyth's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 1,008 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.