What is Matthew J Smith's strike rate?

Matthew J Smith has won 158 of 1,793 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Matthew J Smith do best at?

Bellewstown by strike rate: 10 wins from 52 runners (19.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Matthew J Smith?

Robbie Colgan, with 161 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (6.8%).

Is Matthew J Smith in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Matthew J Smith's Fair A/E?

1.23, from 1,793 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Matthew J Smith

1,793 runners in the lifetime window · 152 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

158–1,793

Wins / Runs

8.8%

Strike rate

n=1,793

429 (24%)

Placed

1.23

Fair A/E

n=1,793 · 0.98 incl. margin

−315.69

£1 level stake

n=1,793 at SP · −17.6%

£2.41m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.23). New recruits from other yards win at 13% first time out (71 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,793 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug Fresh horses: 10.7% 25.6% when favourite Robbie Colgan: 6.8% from 161 New recruits: 12.7% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Bellewstown (19.2%, n=52) and Downpatrick (16%, n=50) — all clear of the yard's 8.8% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 12.7% (n=71, Fair A/E 2.20), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=83, Fair A/E 0.00). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 10.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.85 and +66.75 to a £1 stake over 326 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Robbie Colgan rides 9% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (6.8% vs 8.8%, A/E 1.28) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Northfields' Handicap at Curragh (Sep 2019, £88,500). The stable star of the record: Master Matt (GB) — 7 wins from 44 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.7%+1.9

n=326 · A/E 1.85 · £1 +66.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.7%+3.9

n=71 · A/E 2.20 · £1 +3.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−8.8

n=83 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −83.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.2%−1.6

n=83 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −13.67

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.6%−0.2

n=81 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −26.12

When favourite

25.6%

n=125 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −9.68

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.7%−1.1

n=700 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −141.19

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.3%−1.5

n=82 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +29.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.1% vs 8.8% · n=157

At Bellewstown 19.2% vs 8.8% · n=52

With debutants 0% vs 8.8% · n=83

With C&D winners 16% vs 8.8% · n=156

With Peter Carberry 0% vs 8.8% · n=53

At Downpatrick 16% vs 8.8% · n=50

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 817 75 9.2% −171.60

Hurdle 756 67 8.9% −144.34

Chase 161 11 6.8% −59.25

NH Flat 59 5 8.5% +59.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 570 55 9.6% −105.68

Soft 524 45 8.6% −55.82

Standard (AW) 250 26 10.4% −23.02

Good to Soft 198 15 7.6% −34.42

Heavy 189 11 5.8% −75.00

Good to Firm 62 6 9.7% −21.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 241 24 10% −39.02

Navan 145 12 8.3% −60.99

Galway 137 12 8.8% −43.25

Fairyhouse 115 7 6.1% −28.50

Punchestown 115 5 4.3% −47.50

Curragh 96 4 4.2% −50.00

Leopardstown 86 4 4.7% −27.00

Down Royal 64 9 14.1% +17.50

Kilbeggan 64 7 10.9% +8.00

Naas 61 5 8.2% −19.75

Gowran Park 59 2 3.4% −40.00

Listowel 53 5 9.4% +17.00

Bellewstown 52 10 19.2% +17.66

Limerick 50 4 8% +6.75

Downpatrick 50 8 16% +24.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 84 6 7.1% +27.50

Class 2 12 1 8.3% +0.00

Class 3 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 5 1 1 100% +12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 141 34 24.1% 1.07 −11.18

2nd–3rd fav 303 53 17.5% 1.26 +9.99

4th–6th fav 384 37 9.6% 1.35 +21.50

7th+ in betting 965 34 3.5% 1.23 −336.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 427 40 9.4% +9.66

1m5f – 2m 403 29 7.2% −131.92

1m2f – 1m4f 289 31 10.7% −42.02

2m5f – 3m 264 28 10.6% −6.92

1m – 1m1f 159 11 6.9% −34.50

6f – 7f 155 11 7.1% −60.50

Under 6f 56 6 10.7% −18.49

Over 3m 40 2 5% −31.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2012 2 0 0% −2.00

2013 33 6 18.2% +17.00

2014 63 7 11.1% −2.25

2015 60 8 13.3% +15.50

2016 51 6 11.8% +46.50

2017 139 9 6.5% −75.50

2018 122 9 7.4% −15.75

2019 142 20 14.1% +25.35

2020 169 22 13% +39.81

2021 212 16 7.5% −98.75

2022 268 21 7.8% −45.84

2023 187 12 6.4% −55.42

2024 124 9 7.3% −42.84

2025 120 7 5.8% −58.50

2026 101 6 5.9% −63.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,188 124 10.4% −115.20

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 608 62 10.2% −92.12

11-13 runners 453 42 9.3% −11.49

17+ runners 438 25 5.7% −177.65

8-10 runners 201 21 10.4% −43.76

5-7 runners 80 7 8.8% −3.67

2-4 runners 13 1 7.7% +13.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bigz Belief (IRE)then Barry Brennan 58 4 15 1 Sep 24

Cozone (GB)from James Ferguson 55 5 13 28 Oct 26

One Cool Poet (IRE)from A L T Moore · then Liz Doyle 55 5 20 10 Oct 23

Bective Cave (IRE)from A J Whelan 49 6 11 20 Sep 21

Master Matt (GB)from Denis Quinn · then M Halford & T Collins 44 7 15 24 Sep 22

Gretzky (GB)from Robert Alan Hennessy 37 5 8 10 Feb 17

Moonovercloon (IRE)then Declan Queally 36 3 13 14 Oct 25

Empresario (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Jake Thomas Coulson 36 5 12 8 Feb 18

Ronald Pump (GB)then Ciaran Murphy 35 5 13 21 Sep 22

Another Choice (IRE) 34 3 12 29 Sep 25

Flaming Moon (IRE)then Peter John Flood 32 3 10 28 Aug 23

La Hacienda (GB)from Andreas Suborics 30 5 7 3 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 152 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 10 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 29 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (3) and Robert Alan Hennessy (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for Declan Queally (2) and Fergal O'Brien (2); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

95911611101188116

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRobbie Colgan

9% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 1.28

RiderRWSR£1

Robbie Colgan 161 11 6.8% −56.00

James Smith 153 14 9.2% −38.42

Keith Donoghue 111 12 10.8% +1.00

Declan McDonogh 84 9 10.7% +15.33

A E Lynch 83 10 12% +22.75

Sam Ewing 68 9 13.2% −3.27

Kevin Smith 62 4 6.5% −36.00

B J Cooper 57 8 14% +10.75

Leigh Roche 53 3 5.7% −29.50

Peter Carberry 53 0 0% −53.00

Adam Short 49 3 6.1% −5.00

Colin Keane 43 6 14% −17.82

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

158

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.41m

Prize money

2020

Best season · 22 wins

One Cool Poet (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Northfields' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Sep 2019

£88,500

La Hacienda (GB) — JenningsBet Northumberland Vase Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Jul 2023 · Class 2

£38,655

Ronald Pump (GB) — I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Grade B) Fairyhouse · Apr 2019 · Grade B

£32,450

Notable horses

Master Matt (GB) Dartan (GB) Bective Cave (IRE) Rawnaq (IRE) Cozone (GB) One Cool Poet (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Urban Poet (USA) 6.8% · 7–103

Progeny have won 5% of 520 runs since 2014 (38 horses).

Court Cave (IRE) 11.2% · 10–89

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,956 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Pour Moi (IRE) 10.6% · 9–85

Progeny have won 9.9% of 2,696 runs since 2015 (266 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.8% from 380.

Golden Tornado (IRE) 13.1% · 8–61

Progeny have won 10% of 739 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 248. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.8% from 157.

Make Believe (GB) 6.9% · 4–58

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,626 runs since 2019 (298 horses).

Zoffany (IRE) 4.1% · 2–49

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,779 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,793 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,793 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 December 2012 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Final Boss (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 9/2

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Blackjack Hills (IRE)J: James Smith Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 10th 50/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Ella's Gold (IRE)J: James Smith Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 6th 14/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Dyker Heights (IRE)J: Robert Whearty Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 16th 500/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) La La Lucrative (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 23rd 50/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Knockraha Pa (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 3rd 20/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Excuzio Joe (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Punchestown Premiere Weekend Sat 21 & Sun 22 November Handicap8f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 16/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Cozone (GB)J: Robbie Colgan Happy Halloween Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 80/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Final Boss (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Cala Gracioneta (IRE)J: James Smith Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 11/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Banshof (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 18/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) La La Lucrative (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Feel The Rush With 1xBet.ie Handicap7f · Soft · 20 ran 18th 11/2

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Final Boss (IRE)J: James Ryan Feel The Rush With 1xBet.ie Handicap7f · Soft · 20 ran 10th 25/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Cala Gracioneta (IRE)J: James Smith William Hill Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran 5th 15/2

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Ella's Gold (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div I)7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 12/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) La La Lucrative (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Guinness Handicap7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 2nd 4/1

09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Banshof (IRE)J: Jack Cleary View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 12/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Blackjack Hills (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Racing Here On The 12th November Handicap16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 13th 15/2

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Cozone (GB)J: Wesley Joyce Racing Here On The 12th November Handicap16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 12th 28/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Knockraha Pa (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Navan Racing Festival 14th & 15th November Median Auction Maiden6f · Yielding · 21 ran 17th 300/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 12 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Matthew J Smith's strike rate?: Matthew J Smith has won 158 of 1,793 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Matthew J Smith do best at?: Bellewstown by strike rate: 10 wins from 52 runners (19.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Matthew J Smith?: Robbie Colgan, with 161 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (6.8%).
Is Matthew J Smith in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Matthew J Smith's Fair A/E?: 1.23, from 1,793 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.