What is Michael Attwater's strike rate?

Michael Attwater has won 319 of 4,899 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Attwater do best at?

Bath by strike rate: 20 wins from 163 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Attwater?

William Carson, with 508 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (5.7%).

Is Michael Attwater in form?

In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 13.3%. That is above the baseline of 6.5% since 2008.

What is Michael Attwater's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 4,880 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Attwater

4,899 runners in the lifetime window · 324 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.7% of 361 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

In form — 2 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

319–4,899

Wins / Runs

6.5%

Strike rate

n=4,899

1,014 (21%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=4,880 · 0.78 incl. margin

−1,649.60

£1 level stake

n=4,899 at SP · −33.7%

£2.61m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 260 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91). The yard is in form now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,899 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 27.8% when favourite William Carson: 5.7% from 508 Claiming riders: 7.5% Sends off the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Bath (12.3%, n=163), clear of the yard's 6.5% baseline. It is weakest at Ascot (0% over 77 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 1.4% (n=138, Fair A/E 0.78). The market has consistently overbet a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.47 and −66.50 to a £1 stake over 141 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is firing: 2 winners from 15 runners in the last 14 days (13.3%, 6.8pts above the 6.5% baseline). William Carson rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.7%, A/E 0.78). The yard also reads well on Heavy going (13.6%, n=44). The stable star of the record: Salient (GB) — 11 wins from 128 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.8%−3.7

n=668 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −365.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.3%−3.2

n=181 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −91.00

Debutants · first career start

1.4%−5.1

n=138 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −88.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.6%−3.9

n=116 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −46.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

2.8%−3.7

n=141 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −66.50

When favourite

27.8%

n=144 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −13.93

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.5%+1.0

n=1,241 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −369.86

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.5

n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With David Egan 21.3% vs 6.5% · n=47

At Bath 12.3% vs 6.5% · n=163

At Ascot 0% vs 6.5% · n=77

On last-time-out winners 11.2% vs 6.5% · n=331

On Heavy going 13.6% vs 6.5% · n=44

With Ian Mongan 13.3% vs 6.5% · n=45

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,825 318 6.6% −1,609.60

Hurdle 62 1 1.6% −28.00

NH Flat 11 0 0% −11.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 3,088 208 6.7% −872.03

Good to Firm 702 39 5.6% −409.34

Good 580 28 4.8% −315.10

Good to Soft 233 16 6.9% −51.59

Soft 194 15 7.7% −76.67

Firm 58 7 12.1% +5.50

Heavy 44 6 13.6% +69.63

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 1,359 93 6.8% −388.07

Kempton (AW) 967 49 5.1% −345.92

Brighton 370 34 9.2% −123.09

Wolverhampton (AW) 332 35 10.5% −84.95

Chelmsford (AW) 328 22 6.7% −55.50

Windsor 195 18 9.2% −58.43

Goodwood 190 10 5.3% −109.00

Bath 163 20 12.3% +25.32

Sandown 144 2 1.4% −110.00

Lingfield 134 5 3.7% −42.25

Epsom 128 6 4.7% −75.50

Southwell (AW) 92 8 8.7% −0.89

Ascot 77 0 0% −77.00

Newbury 62 4 6.5% −19.50

Salisbury 55 4 7.3% +2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 2,245 157 7% −648.22

Class 5 1,453 95 6.5% −520.68

Class 4 691 39 5.6% −272.15

Class 3 223 8 3.6% −114.00

Class 2 186 13 7% −55.68

Class 7 71 6 8.5% −22.17

Class 1 26 0 0% −26.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 188 47 25% 0.96 −31.68

2nd–3rd fav 681 99 14.5% 0.94 −144.55

4th–6th fav 1,539 114 7.4% 0.96 −312.37

7th+ in betting 2,491 59 2.4% 0.75 −1,161.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,831 111 6.1% −746.19

1m2f – 1m4f 962 59 6.1% −345.22

1m – 1m1f 924 55 6% −239.30

Under 6f 908 85 9.4% −201.14

1m5f – 2m 241 7 2.9% −125.25

2m1f – 2m4f 22 1 4.5% −15.50

2m5f – 3m 11 1 9.1% +23.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 217 16 7.4% −95.59

2009 210 11 5.2% −129.90

2010 214 9 4.2% −128.75

2011 257 23 8.9% +33.75

2012 232 17 7.3% −13.13

2013 201 14 7% −92.45

2014 206 12 5.8% −86.75

2015 232 13 5.6% −127.12

2016 253 19 7.5% −48.00

2017 240 25 10.4% +9.90

2018 263 5 1.9% −235.70

2019 267 23 8.6% −28.43

2020 252 16 6.3% −79.55

2021 340 16 4.7% −114.09

2022 300 21 7% −68.42

2023 321 19 5.9% −214.08

2024 259 16 6.2% −122.17

2025 349 24 6.9% −49.50

2026 286 20 7% −59.62

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,034 274 6.8% −1,147.77

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,950 124 6.4% −562.71

11-13 runners 1,611 70 4.3% −702.17

5-7 runners 849 98 11.5% −114.48

14-16 runners 364 13 3.6% −240.00

17+ runners 75 0 0% −75.00

2-4 runners 50 14 28% +44.76

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Salient (GB)from John Akehurst 128 11 30 18 Feb 17

Ask The Guru (GB)from Ralph Beckett 99 9 23 27 Aug 20

Prince Of Thebes (IRE)from John Akehurst 85 5 23 7 Jan 13

Nordic Glory (IRE) 77 11 29 8 Oct 26

Bravo Echo (GB)from John Gosden 76 8 22 26 Feb 16

Lawn Ranger (GB) 70 8 21 8 Jun 26

Noble Deed (GB)from William Haggas 61 2 9 17 Feb 21

Music Major (GB)from Kevin Morgan 60 7 21 22 May 21

Bear To Dream (IRE) 58 6 21 30 Jun 26

Big Time Maybe (IRE)from Tom Dascombe · then Phil McEntee 56 5 22 30 Jul 22

Cabeza De Llave (GB) 55 7 21 27 Oct 26

Beat Route (GB) 55 6 19 25 Aug 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 324 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 23 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 41 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Akehurst (5) and Bill Turner (2); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Simon Hodgson (3); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

2 from 15 13.3% · +6.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days13.3%

Lifetime base6.5%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

61011566685564

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderWilliam Carson

10% of all rides
5.7% SR · A/E 0.78

RiderRWSR£1

William Carson 508 29 5.7% −211.71

Kieren Fox 461 25 5.4% −222.25

Robert Havlin 413 27 6.5% −201.58

Paddy Bradley 312 24 7.7% −89.92

Luke Morris 253 18 7.1% −86.20

Mark Coumbe 163 18 11% +28.12

Paul Doe 113 6 5.3% −62.00

Rob Hornby 93 7 7.5% −17.37

Rhys Clutterbuck 87 7 8% −19.05

Callum Shepherd 84 5 6% −19.50

Jim Crowley 77 5 6.5% −33.65

Jemma Marshall 72 2 2.8% −46.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

368

Archived wins

£2.78m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 25 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Bravo Echo (GB) — Sportingbet Supports Heros 'Super 7' Handicap (Final) Lingfield (AW) · Mar 2010 · Class 2

£31,155

George Guru (GB) — Betfred Mobile Lotto Handicap Goodwood · May 2013 · Class 2

£19,407

George Guru (GB) — Ladbrokes Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Mar 2014 · Class 2

£16,173

Notable horses

Salient (GB) Nordic Glory (IRE) Ask The Guru (GB) Bravo Echo (GB) Lawn Ranger (GB) Marmooq (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 6.9% · 15–216

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,968 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Oasis Dream (GB) 8.6% · 15–174

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,031 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 484. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 791.

Fasliyev (USA) 10.2% · 17–166

Progeny have won 8.3% of 4,140 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.1% from 124.

Ishiguru (USA) 10.7% · 16–149

Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.

Zaha (CAN) 2.7% · 3–111

Progeny have won 5.9% of 627 runs since 2008 (72 horses).

Bertolini (USA) 7.8% · 8–103

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,429 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,429 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bessie Wallis (IRE)J: James Glennon Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 20/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Honour Your Dreams (FR)J: Alistair Rawlinson Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 13/2

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Fresh Fade (IRE)J: David Probert ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 18/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket City Of God (IRE)J: William Carson German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 80/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Lovely Jubly (GB)J: Taryn Langley Disability Inc Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Pitney (IRE)J: David Probert Disability Inc Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 5th 9/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Gatlinburg (IRE)J: Seamus Cronin Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 7th 14/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cabeza De Llave (GB)J: David Probert Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/4

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bessie Wallis (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 8/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Venetian Romance (IRE)J: Luke Morris Saisons D'Or 100th Race Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 100/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Stapleford Park (GB)J: Luke Morris Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 12th 66/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Wild Nature (GB)J: Kieren Fox Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 11th 50/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Crack O'nine (GB)J: Kieren Fox Unibet's New Var Goal Guarantee Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 9th 125/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Desdemona (GB)J: William Pyle Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 18/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Arantes Nascimento (GB)J: Kieren Fox CopyBet Proudly Backs UK Horse Racing Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 11/2

19 Oct 26 Bath Pitney (IRE)J: Kieren Fox Elite Racing Club Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 14/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Honour Your Dreams (FR)J: Kieren Fox Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 12/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Berning Hot (IRE)J: William Carson Position Payout At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 13th 4/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Fresh Fade (IRE)J: Kieren Fox bet365 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 11th 25/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Kaaress (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 11th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 1) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Michael Attwater's strike rate?: Michael Attwater has won 319 of 4,899 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Attwater do best at?: Bath by strike rate: 20 wins from 163 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Attwater?: William Carson, with 508 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (5.7%).
Is Michael Attwater in form?: In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 13.3%. That is above the baseline of 6.5% since 2008.
What is Michael Attwater's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 4,880 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.