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Trainer profile

Michael Butler

629 runners in the lifetime window · 104 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
39–629
Wins / Runs
6.2%
Strike rate
n=629
115 (18%)
Placed
1.04
Fair A/E
n=628 · 0.81 incl. margin
−276.01
£1 level stake
n=629 at SP · −43.9%
£395k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04).

Deterministic profile computed from 629 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul M P Butler: 8.2% from 134
The read

The record is strongest at Fairyhouse (11.4%, n=35), clear of the yard's 6.2% baseline. Debutants struggle at 1.7% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.55). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.62 and −45.38 to a £1 stake over 114 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. M P Butler rides 21% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.2%, A/E 1.29) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (11.4%, n=44). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.6% over 61 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Akinspirit (IRE) — 8 wins from 58 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−3.6
n=114 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −45.38
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.7%−1.5
n=43 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −31.38
Debutants · first career start
1.7%−4.5
n=59 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −46.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.2%−4.0
n=45 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −30.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
2.6%−3.6
n=39 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −22.00
When favourite
25%
n=28 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −6.51
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%−0.9
n=374 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −195.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 15.4% vs 6.2% · n=39
With horses switching code 10.6% vs 6.2% · n=104
On Good to Firm going 11.4% vs 6.2% · n=44
Off a break of 180+ days 1.6% vs 6.2% · n=61
At Fairyhouse 11.4% vs 6.2% · n=35
With debutants 1.7% vs 6.2% · n=59
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 303 17 5.6% −112.50
Flat 208 15 7.2% −106.01
Chase 91 6 6.6% −43.50
NH Flat 27 1 3.7% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 179 9 5% −65.50
Good 172 10 5.8% −99.38
Heavy 93 5 5.4% −33.50
Standard (AW) 71 6 8.5% −33.63
Good to Soft 67 3 4.5% −49.00
Good to Firm 44 5 11.4% +4.00
Firm 3 1 33.3% +1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 69 6 8.7% −31.63
Clonmel 40 4 10% −6.25
Tramore 39 2 5.1% −24.00
Gowran Park 37 3 8.1% −5.50
Limerick 35 1 2.9% −30.00
Fairyhouse 35 4 11.4% +34.50
Cork 31 1 3.2% −25.00
Killarney 27 1 3.7% −24.38
Roscommon 26 2 7.7% −6.00
Navan 26 1 3.8% −9.00
Wexford 25 2 8% −14.00
Tipperary 24 2 8.3% −2.50
Thurles 22 0 0% −22.00
Naas 22 0 0% −22.00
Ballinrobe 21 1 4.8% −14.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 34 7 20.6% 1.03 −12.51
2nd–3rd fav 86 16 18.6% 1.43 +15.00
4th–6th fav 142 8 5.6% 0.83 −67.50
7th+ in betting 367 8 2.2% 0.81 −211.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Akinspirit (IRE)from Eoin Griffin · then Nikki Evans 58 8 18 22 Oct 15
Optical Confusion (IRE) 29 4 10 1 Oct 22
Steps Match (IRE)then Daragh Bourke 28 2 8 25 Jul 24
Florimund (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute 26 3 11 3 Jun 13
Carvelas (IRE)then P J F Murphy 25 1 9 23 Jan 15
Rion Rubette (GB) 24 3 7 1 Nov 26
Preswell Lad (IRE)from Michael Joseph Fitzgerald 24 4 10 30 Jul 15
Repeat That (IRE)then David Harry Kelly 19 1 1 25 Aug 23
Casco Bay (IRE)from P J Prendergast · then David Lewis 16 1 4 26 Aug 11
No Way Pedro (IRE)from R P Cody · then Brian Barr 15 0 2 21 Jul 22
Gudnis Gracious Me (IRE)from J F O'Shea 15 2 2 10 Nov 13
Mosman Park (FR)from John C Shearman · then Gerard Stack 15 2 4 1 Jan 12
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Michael McNiff (2) and Michael Joseph Fitzgerald (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

35 have since run for another yard, most often for John Butler (6) and Eoin Doyle (5); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
4756418855435
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderM P Butler
21% of all rides
8.2% SR · A/E 1.29
RiderRWSR£1
M P Butler 134 11 8.2% −31.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
40
Archived wins
£415k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Rion Rubette (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap Gowran Park · Apr 2026
£17,670
Rion Rubette (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap Gowran Park · Jun 2026
£14,136
Gudnis Gracious Me (IRE) — Roscommon On-course Vets Handicap Chase Roscommon · Sep 2013
£10,350
Notable horses
Akinspirit (IRE) Optical Confusion (IRE) Preswell Lad (IRE) Florimund (GB) Rion Rubette (GB) Steps Match (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 13.8% · 8–58
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,862 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Windsor Knot (IRE) 13.8% · 4–29
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,319 runs since 2011 (81 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 109. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 127.
Court Cave (IRE) 7.1% · 2–28
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,954 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Sadler's Wells (USA) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,636 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.7% from 107.
Cape Cross (IRE) 4% · 1–25
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
New Bay (GB) 12.5% · 3–24
Progeny have won 14.3% of 3,997 runs since 2020 (426 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 690 · newest first

The latest 50 of 690 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Ryans Cleaning Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 4th 18/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Daniel King Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 15/2
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Soft · 16 ran 5th 80/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Destiny Calls (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Navan Racing Festival 14th & 15th November Median Auction Maiden6f · Yielding · 21 ran 8th 28/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Daniel King Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran 1st 12/1
20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Wipeawayyourtears (IRE)J: Alan King Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 9th 20/1
19 Sep 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Racing Again October 2nd & 3rd Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 6th 3/1
17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Destiny Calls (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Yielding · 21 ran 9th 150/1
08 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Mary's Miracle (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Sean Cleary Memorial Fillies Maiden12f · Soft · 17 ran 16th 100/1
08 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Venerini (IRE)J: Orla Tynan BOYLE Sports Apprentice Handicap12f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 80/1
05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Destiny Calls (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden6f · Good · 13 ran 6th 66/1
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Daniel King Clarke's Bar Mullingar Handicap Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 40/1
31 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Wipeawayyourtears (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap12f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 14th 14/1
21 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Irish Stallion Farms EBF Vincent O'Brien Ruby Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 8th 25/1
18 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Venerini (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett District Speciality Coffee Maiden12f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 11th 250/1
16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Paddy Cody Tramore Directors Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 6th 33/1
07 Aug 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap7f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 12/1
24 Jul 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Joshua Halford Tote Maiden Hurdle19f · Good · 15 ran 6th 16/1
13 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Wipeawayyourtears (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Heights Hotel, Killarney Handicap11.5f · Good · 14 ran 9th 8/1
12 Jul 26 Sligo (IRE) Bobby Kirova (GB)J: Joshua Halford Durkin Bros. Electrical Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Butler's strike rate?
Michael Butler has won 39 of 629 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Butler do best at?
Fairyhouse by strike rate: 4 wins from 35 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Butler?
M P Butler, with 134 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (8.2%).
Is Michael Butler in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Michael Butler's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 628 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).