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Trainer profile

Olly Williams

618 runners in the lifetime window · 59 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
26–618
Wins / Runs
4.2%
Strike rate
n=618
95 (15%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=614 · 0.61 incl. margin
−342.30
£1 level stake
n=618 at SP · −55.4%
£224k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69). New recruits from other yards win at 6% first time out (33 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 618 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar Duran Fentiman: 8.5% from 82 New recruits: 6.1% Claiming riders: 4.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (8.1%, n=160), clear of the yard's 4.2% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 0% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −175.85 to a £1 stake over 279 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Duran Fentiman rides 13% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.5% vs 4.2%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 85 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.00 across 84 runners (0% strike, −84.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Tricky Dicky (GB) — 7 wins from 41 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.2%−3.0
n=82 · A/E 0.34 · £1 −48.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.1%+1.9
n=33 · A/E 1.81 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.2
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.2
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.2
n=40 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −40.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=28 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −7.80
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.3%+0.1
n=279 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −175.85

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 9.1% vs 4.2% · n=88
At Southwell (AW) 8.1% vs 4.2% · n=160
With Duran Fentiman 8.5% vs 4.2% · n=82
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 4.2% · n=85
In Hurdle races 0% vs 4.2% · n=84
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 4.2% · n=58
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 495 25 5.1% −227.30
Hurdle 84 0 0% −84.00
NH Flat 20 0 0% −20.00
Chase 19 1 5.3% −11.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 263 13 4.9% −97.30
Good 136 2 1.5% −121.00
Good to Firm 91 3 3.3% −62.50
Good to Soft 59 1 1.7% −56.75
Soft 54 4 7.4% −32.75
Heavy 15 3 20% +28.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW) 160 13 8.1% +5.70
Newcastle (AW) 50 0 0% −50.00
Market Rasen 41 0 0% −41.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 36 0 0% −36.00
Doncaster 33 0 0% −33.00
Beverley 32 0 0% −32.00
Catterick 31 2 6.5% −17.50
Yarmouth 28 2 7.1% −21.00
Leicester 24 1 4.2% −20.00
Redcar 21 2 9.5% +15.75
Thirsk 21 0 0% −21.00
Southwell 17 0 0% −17.00
Nottingham 17 2 11.8% +0.00
Wetherby 15 0 0% −15.00
Pontefract 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 324 18 5.6% −103.20
Class 5 180 7 3.9% −126.50
Class 4 81 1 1.2% −79.60
Class 3 24 0 0% −24.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 8 25.8% 0.98 −10.80
2nd–3rd fav 64 5 7.8% 0.53 −34.50
4th–6th fav 165 9 5.5% 0.88 −74.00
7th+ in betting 358 4 1.1% 0.35 −223.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Going Native (GB)from Ed Walker 47 4 12 4 Apr 21
Lincoln Red (GB) 44 3 12 7 Nov 23
Mickey Mongoose (GB)from Charlie Johnston 41 4 6 29 Oct 26
Tricky Dicky (GB)then Roger Fell 41 7 19 7 Mar 19
Muhib (GB)from John & Thady Gosden 30 0 4 26 Oct 26
Viking Way (IRE) 29 1 7 27 Nov 20
Foursome (GB)from William Haggas · then Daragh Bourke 28 1 6 16 Sep 24
Essential (GB)from George Scott 28 1 5 21 Jan 20
Cubanista (GB)from Pam Sly 23 0 6 21 Jul 25
Raspberry (GB) 16 1 2 28 Aug 21
Inexorable (GB) 15 0 1 4 Jun 21
New Tale (GB) 13 0 1 1 Apr 18
All 59 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 59 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Pam Sly (4) and Ed Walker (2); 26 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard, most often for Nick Kent (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
2717073430704
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDuran Fentiman
13% of all rides
8.5% SR · A/E 1.33
RiderRWSR£1
Duran Fentiman 82 7 8.5% +55.75
Jack Mitchell 30 2 6.7% −23.00
Connor Murtagh 30 1 3.3% −15.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→
26
Archived wins
£224k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 6 wins
Tricky Dicky (GB) — Betway Handicap Southwell (AW) · Mar 2019 · Class 4
£5,531
Fenlander (GB) — CopyBet BOG Now For Cheltenham Tomorrow Handicap Stakes Newmarket · Oct 2026 · Class 5
£5,234
Mickey Mongoose (GB) — BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap (Div 2) Southwell (AW) · Feb 2025 · Class 6
£4,711
Notable horses
Tricky Dicky (GB) Going Native (GB) Mickey Mongoose (GB) Lincoln Red (GB) Fenlander (GB) Viking Way (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 14% · 7–50
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,883 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Speightstown (USA) 8.5% · 4–47
Progeny have won 14.1% of 1,837 runs since 2008 (165 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 105.
Monsieur Bond (IRE) 6.8% · 3–44
Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,981 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.
Lope De Vega (IRE) 9.8% · 4–41
Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,208 runs since 2014 (1,107 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.
Too Darn Hot (GB) 0% · 0–30
Progeny have won 14% of 2,356 runs since 2023 (322 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.4% from 117.
Society Rock (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29
Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,837 runs since 2017 (175 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 233.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 618 · newest first

The latest 50 of 618 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 August 2015 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 26 Newmarket Fenlander (GB)J: Warren Fentiman 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 100/30F
29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mickey Mongoose (GB)J: Duran Fentiman AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 28/1
26 Oct 26 Leicester Fenlander (GB)J: Shay Farmer Jumping's Back At Leicester Tuesday 17th November Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 1st 3/1
26 Oct 26 Leicester Muhib (GB)J: Shay Farmer Fireworks Festival Here Saturday 7th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 10/1
22 Oct 26 Newmarket Fenlander (GB)J: Warren Fentiman CopyBet BOG Now For Cheltenham Tomorrow Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 1st 11/2
15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mickey Mongoose (GB)J: Duran Fentiman Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 9/1
13 Oct 26 Leicester Fenlander (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 3rd 13/2
06 Oct 26 Leicester Fenlander (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Mario & Traci Plough Duxford Last Orders Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 12/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Muhib (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Watch All Races Live On Racingtv Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 8/1
28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mickey Mongoose (GB)J: Cian Horgan Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 33/1
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Fenlander (GB)J: Christian Howarth Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 40/1
24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Southern Warrior (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 40/1
14 Sep 26 Thirsk Muhib (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Constant Security Services Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good · 12 ran 4th 11/1
03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Southern Warrior (IRE)J: Warren Fentiman Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 150/1
20 Aug 26 Newcastle (AW) Muhib (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Harry Potter Droneart Show Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 16/1
16 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Southern Warrior (IRE)J: Jude Fernandes Gb Civil Engineering Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Apprentice Training Race - Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 100/1
12 Aug 26 Beverley Mickey Mongoose (GB)J: Duran Fentiman Clearanswer Call Centres Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 13th 33/1
04 Aug 26 Catterick Muhib (GB)J: Warren Fentiman Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 3rd 7/1
21 Jul 26 Nottingham Southern Warrior (IRE)J: Warren Fentiman Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 66/1
17 Jul 26 Pontefract Muhib (GB)J: Joe Bradnam Babs Woolford Memorial Apprentice Classified StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 2nd 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 15 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Olly Williams's strike rate?
Olly Williams has won 26 of 618 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Olly Williams do best at?
Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 160 runners (8.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Olly Williams?
Duran Fentiman, with 82 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (8.5%).
Is Olly Williams in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Olly Williams's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 614 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).