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Trainer profile

P J F Murphy

904 runners in the lifetime window · 114 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 96% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
66–904
Wins / Runs
7.3%
Strike rate
n=904
198 (22%)
Placed
1.06
Fair A/E
n=904 · 0.84 incl. margin
−288.56
£1 level stake
n=904 at SP · −31.9%
£716k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (41 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 904 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb 28% when favourite Gavin Ryan: 8.1% from 135 Headgear returns: 12.2% Claiming riders: 9.3% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read

It is weakest at Navan (0% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 12.2% (n=41, Fair A/E 1.62), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=58, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −92.50 to a £1 stake over 152 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Gavin Ryan rides 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.1%, A/E 1.30) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (11%, n=328). The stable star of the record: Craft Irish (IRE) — 5 wins from 16 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−4.7
n=152 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −92.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.5%−3.8
n=57 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −25.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.3
n=58 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −58.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−4.4
n=35 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −27.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.2%+4.9
n=41 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +0.50
When favourite
28%
n=50 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −6.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.3%+2.0
n=312 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −99.46
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 19.4% vs 7.3% · n=62
With C&D winners 13.9% vs 7.3% · n=108
With debutants 0% vs 7.3% · n=58
At Navan 0% vs 7.3% · n=38
With Donagh O'Connor 0% vs 7.3% · n=32
On Standard (AW) going 11% vs 7.3% · n=328
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 870 66 7.6% −254.56
Hurdle 22 0 0% −22.00
Chase 8 0 0% −8.00
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 328 36 11% −81.35
Soft 216 10 4.6% −124.29
Good 191 11 5.8% −43.75
Heavy 80 3 3.8% +0.00
Good to Soft 48 5 10.4% −4.17
Good to Firm 41 1 2.4% −35.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk 316 33 10.4% −79.45
Gowran Park 80 3 3.8% −31.00
Curragh 54 4 7.4% −14.50
Leopardstown 45 2 4.4% −17.50
Cork 43 3 7% −18.50
Naas 38 4 10.5% +5.38
Navan 38 0 0% −38.00
Roscommon 34 3 8.8% −17.92
Limerick 27 2 7.4% +37.00
Bellewstown 27 0 0% −27.00
Galway 27 1 3.7% −22.67
Listowel 26 2 7.7% −10.00
Killarney 22 1 4.5% −18.50
Tipperary 20 1 5% −13.50
Fairyhouse 20 1 5% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 8 2 25% −2.40
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 1 100% +3.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 64 18 28.1% 1.20 −3.72
2nd–3rd fav 124 14 11.3% 0.84 −36.34
4th–6th fav 206 22 10.7% 1.41 −6.50
7th+ in betting 510 12 2.4% 0.80 −242.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Free Solo (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 46 3 11 11 Nov 26
Mint Man (GB) 36 3 16 11 Nov 26
Fairy Foxglove (IRE)from Paul Hickey 33 4 16 18 Nov 16
Desert Friend (IRE)from Mrs Denise Foster 19 2 3 21 Oct 26
Nannys Well (IRE) 19 1 9 29 Nov 17
Un Bacio Ancora (IRE)from C W J Farrell · then James M Barcoe 18 0 2 26 Jul 24
Porterinthejungle (IRE)then Robyn Brisland 18 0 5 12 Feb 21
Asisaid (IRE)then Denis Gerard Hogan 17 2 2 23 Aug 24
Carvelas (IRE)from Michael Butler · then J R Jenkins 17 3 7 16 Mar 18
Mythical Rock (IRE)from James M Barrett · then C Byrnes 16 1 6 30 Jan 26
Craft Irish (IRE) 16 5 7 20 Aug 23
Methgal (IRE)from K R Burke · then Dylan Cunha 15 1 3 30 Jun 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 114 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (2) and James M Barrett (2); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for David Marnane (2); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1312514567851119
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGavin Ryan
15% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 1.30
RiderRWSR£1
Gavin Ryan 135 11 8.1% +5.96
Chris Hayes 128 9 7% −23.22
Luke McAteer 69 8 11.6% −12.75
R. P. Whelan 55 2 3.6% −48.94
Conor Cusack 37 4 10.8% −0.17
Ben Coen 36 4 11.1% −10.50
Donagh O'Connor 32 0 0% −32.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
66
Archived wins
£716k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 8 wins
Mint Man (GB) — Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Curragh (IRE) · Aug 2026
£15,000
Craft Irish (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap Naas · Aug 2023
£11,800
Waka Waka (IRE) — Caulfield Industrial Irish EBF Maiden Galway · Jul 2022
£11,210
Notable horses
Craft Irish (IRE) Fairy Foxglove (IRE) Koybig (IRE) Free Solo (IRE) Mint Man (GB) Carvelas (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Showcasing (GB) 6.1% · 3–49
Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,664 runs since 2014 (1,000 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.
Due Diligence (USA) 7.9% · 3–38
Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,564 runs since 2019 (194 horses).
Cotai Glory (GB) 8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,971 runs since 2021 (391 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 1,433. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 429.
No Nay Never (USA) 2.9% · 1–35
Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,381 runs since 2018 (710 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 187.
Albano (IRE) 12.1% · 4–33
Progeny have won 11.3% of 133 runs since 2010 (9 horses).
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,816 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 904 · newest first

The latest 50 of 904 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 March 2013 to 11 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Free Solo (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 14/1
11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mint Man (GB)J: Chris Hayes Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 12/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Aghadrum Boy (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan BAR 1 Betting Bet Builder Boost Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 25/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dance On Crow (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 150/1
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) One Cool County (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 17/2
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mehman (GB)J: Chris Hayes BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 4/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Free Solo (IRE)J: Chris Hayes See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 10th 10/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Rayastar (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 15/2
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mehman (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Halloween Mid-Term Racing Next Week Apprentice Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 3/1F
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Desert Friend (IRE)J: Conor Cusack Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 11th 33/1
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Ballintogher (IRE)J: Luke McAteer Autumn Racing With 1xBet.ie At The Curragh Handicap6f · Yielding · 17 ran 14th 33/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Cosmic Funk (IRE)J: Conor Cusack Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 6/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Free Solo (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Feel The Rush With 1xBet.ie Handicap7f · Soft · 20 ran 4th 33/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Cosmic Funk (IRE)J: Ben Coen Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div II)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 5/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mehman (GB)J: Gavin Ryan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 3/1F
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Desert Friend (IRE)J: Conor Cusack Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 12/1
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Aghadrum Boy (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 11th 40/1
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Free Solo (IRE)J: Chris Hayes BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 9th 9/1
05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) One Cool County (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Killarney Student Raceday Handicap8f · Soft · 15 ran 4th 40/1
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mehman (GB)J: Conor Cusack View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap6f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · to 29 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is P J F Murphy's strike rate?
P J F Murphy has won 66 of 904 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P J F Murphy do best at?
Naas by strike rate: 4 wins from 38 runners (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for P J F Murphy?
Gavin Ryan, with 135 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (8.1%).
Is P J F Murphy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P J F Murphy's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 904 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).