What is Tristan Davidson's strike rate?

Tristan Davidson has won 159 of 1,128 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tristan Davidson do best at?

Kelso by strike rate: 7 wins from 33 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tristan Davidson?

Harry Reed, with 292 runners since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (16.8%).

Is Tristan Davidson in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tristan Davidson's Fair A/E?

1.14, from 1,124 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tristan Davidson

1,128 runners in the lifetime window · 123 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

159–1,128

Wins / Runs

14.1%

Strike rate

n=1,128

393 (35%)

Placed

1.14

Fair A/E

n=1,124 · 0.98 incl. margin

−164.50

£1 level stake

n=1,128 at SP · −14.6%

£1.29m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

19.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.14). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 17% (69 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,128 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 32.6% when favourite Harry Reed: 16.8% from 292 Headgear returns: 17.4% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

It is weakest at Wetherby (2.3% over 43 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 17.4% (n=69, Fair A/E 1.46), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −95.00 to a £1 stake over 174 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Harry Reed rides 26% of the entries and edges the yard's average (16.8% vs 14.1%, A/E 1.27) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (27.8%, n=97) and off a 0-7-day break (23.2%, n=82). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 5.4% over 74 runners, 8.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Iris Dancer (GB) — 13 wins from 82 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.9%−7.2

n=174 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −95.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.6%−4.5

n=94 · A/E 0.83 · £1 +14.50

Debutants · first career start

3.4%−10.7

n=29 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −24.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−14.1

n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

17.4%+3.3

n=69 · A/E 1.46 · £1 −9.80

When favourite

32.6%

n=144 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −8.81

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.4%−0.7

n=231 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −35.43

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−14.1

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 27.8% vs 14.1% · n=97

With first-time headgear 0% vs 14.1% · n=30

At Wetherby 2.3% vs 14.1% · n=43

On last-time-out winners 22.2% vs 14.1% · n=158

Off a 0-7-day break 23.2% vs 14.1% · n=82

Off a break of 180+ days 5.4% vs 14.1% · n=74

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 687 97 14.1% −81.39

Hurdle 318 45 14.2% −27.48

Chase 83 15 18.1% −23.33

NH Flat 40 2 5% −32.30

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 337 48 14.2% −110.79

Standard (AW) 247 30 12.1% −2.55

Good to Soft 185 23 12.4% −1.25

Soft 176 23 13.1% −51.67

Good to Firm 97 27 27.8% +36.85

Heavy 86 8 9.3% −35.09

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 171 18 10.5% +10.20

Ayr 133 16 12% −26.99

Hamilton 95 20 21.1% −1.37

Carlisle 84 10 11.9% −21.05

Catterick 74 11 14.9% −11.25

Musselburgh 52 8 15.4% −10.43

Hexham 48 10 20.8% +34.12

Wolverhampton (AW) 43 6 14% −5.75

Wetherby 43 1 2.3% −37.00

Newcastle 41 6 14.6% −5.25

Kelso 33 7 21.2% +4.13

Sedgefield 32 6 18.8% −6.05

Southwell (AW) 29 4 13.8% −8.75

Cartmel 28 8 28.6% +24.12

Perth 24 1 4.2% −21.12

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 370 55 14.9% −80.11

Class 4 348 48 13.8% −61.15

Class 6 295 42 14.2% −38.48

Class 3 75 10 13.3% +35.12

Class 2 34 4 11.8% −13.88

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 175 54 30.9% 1.12 −9.81

2nd–3rd fav 289 60 20.8% 1.23 −0.19

4th–6th fav 371 34 9.2% 1.05 −67.00

7th+ in betting 293 11 3.8% 1.05 −87.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 278 32 11.5% −67.82

1m5f – 2m 160 18 11.3% −26.50

2m1f – 2m4f 152 24 15.8% −32.74

2m5f – 3m 143 25 17.5% −4.54

1m2f – 1m4f 133 24 18% +1.47

Under 6f 132 18 13.6% +12.58

1m – 1m1f 84 9 10.7% −43.50

Over 3m 46 9 19.6% −3.45

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2011 1 0 0% −1.00

2013 6 2 33.3% +6.50

2014 15 1 6.7% −9.00

2015 14 2 14.3% −6.25

2016 21 0 0% −21.00

2017 18 0 0% −18.00

2018 45 16 35.6% +39.42

2019 84 17 20.2% +5.75

2020 75 9 12% −6.25

2021 154 24 15.6% −61.50

2022 75 5 6.7% −6.00

2023 130 16 12.3% −5.75

2024 163 14 8.6% −59.25

2025 165 21 12.7% −20.81

2026 162 32 19.8% −1.36

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 948 141 14.9% −108.72

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 444 58 13.1% −44.20

11-13 runners 333 46 13.8% −30.17

5-7 runners 229 47 20.5% −37.94

14-16 runners 80 4 5% −24.50

17+ runners 27 0 0% −27.00

2-4 runners 15 4 26.7% −0.69

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Iris Dancer (GB)from R Mike Smith 82 13 28 20 Sep 26

Coconut Bay (GB)from Hughie Morrison 71 6 23 12 Sep 26

Our Absent Friends (IRE) 65 9 24 16 Oct 26

Pearl Of Qatar (GB)from Brian Ellison 46 7 21 15 Oct 22

Greengage (IRE)from John Joseph Murphy 39 9 18 12 Nov 21

Justatenner (GB)from Barry Murtagh 34 7 15 24 Oct 21

Ecclesiastical (GB)from T G McCourt · then Lisa Williamson 29 6 14 27 Mar 25

Harb (GB)from Peter Crate 26 5 9 12 Oct 26

Runninsonofagun (IRE)from Anthony Mullins 25 2 11 26 Oct 26

Tomorrow's Angel (GB)from Iain Jardine 25 3 9 16 May 23

Leanna Ban (GB)from Eoin Doyle 23 2 8 13 Jan 18

Dandy Lichious (IRE)from Paul W Flynn 21 0 3 11 Aug 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 123 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 49 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Joseph Murphy (8) and Barry J Fitzgerald (2); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Lisa Williamson (2) and Rebecca Menzies (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9102315122212161612157

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Reed

26% of all rides
16.8% SR · A/E 1.27

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Reed 292 49 16.8% −27.61

Jason Hart 144 27 18.8% +24.36

Phil Dennis 113 16 14.2% +5.18

Rowan Scott 107 22 20.6% +28.44

Andrew Mullen 65 9 13.8% −23.00

Jonathan England 31 3 9.7% −17.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

159

Archived wins

£1.29m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 32 wins

Breizh River (FR) — Virgin Bet Auld Reekie Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Jan 2026 · Class 2

£26,015

Breizh River (FR) — Oakmere Homes Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cartmel · Jun 2026 · Class 2

£22,708

Perseus Way (IRE) — Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race) Carlisle · Nov 2026 · Class 2

£18,210

Notable horses

Iris Dancer (GB) Our Absent Friends (IRE) Greengage (IRE) Pearl Of Qatar (GB) Justatenner (GB) Coconut Bay (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 15.1% · 13–86

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,593 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Bated Breath (GB) 8.5% · 6–71

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,162 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 850.

Camacho (GB) 13.8% · 9–65

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,324 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,804 runs since 2009 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.

Teofilo (IRE) 17.8% · 8–45

Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,082 runs since 2011 (908 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7% from 625.

Choisir (AUS) 23.1% · 9–39

Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,128 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,128 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2011 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Perseus Way (IRE)J: Harry Reed Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 3/1J

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Pyramid Place (IRE)J: Harry Reed Dogs Welcome At The Border Minstrel Pub Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 6th 22/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Nobotheratall (IRE)J: Harry Reed High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 4th 9/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Runninsonofagun (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 10th 8/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Eagles Dream (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Market Cross Jewellers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 6th 20/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Divilabother (IRE)J: Harry Reed Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 16th 25/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Jetovango (IRE)J: Harry Reed Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 11th 5/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Breizh River (FR)J: Harry Reed Magnet, Better. By Design Handicap Steeple Chase (Challenger Staying Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 1st 6/4F

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Rewired (GB)J: Harry Reed Download The www.betvickers.com App Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 8th 28/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Our Absent Friends (IRE)J: Jason Hart Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 14th 28/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Nobotheratall (IRE)J: Harry Reed We Buy Cars On The Go Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 18/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Breizh River (FR)J: Harry Reed Bobby Renton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 4th 2/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Runninsonofagun (IRE)J: Jason Hart Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 11/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Harb (GB)J: Jason Hart Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 14/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Perseus Way (IRE)J: Harry Reed Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 2nd 11/1

07 Oct 26 Sedgefield Jetovango (IRE)J: Harry Reed Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 4th 16/1

04 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Divilabother (IRE)J: Harry Reed F Ball Established 1886 Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st 3/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Our Absent Friends (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Watch Race Replays On Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 20/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Eagles Dream (IRE)J: Amie Waugh Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 8th 20/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Runninsonofagun (IRE)J: Alex Jary Christmas Party Day Dancing @Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 24 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tristan Davidson's strike rate?: Tristan Davidson has won 159 of 1,128 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tristan Davidson do best at?: Kelso by strike rate: 7 wins from 33 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tristan Davidson?: Harry Reed, with 292 runners since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (16.8%).
Is Tristan Davidson in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tristan Davidson's Fair A/E?: 1.14, from 1,124 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.