What is James Ferguson's strike rate?

James Ferguson has won 171 of 1,219 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Ferguson do best at?

Salisbury by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 runners (23.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for James Ferguson?

Daniel Muscutt, with 519 runners since 2008 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 89 (17.1%).

What is James Ferguson's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 1,214 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

James Ferguson

1,219 runners in the lifetime window · 207 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 108 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

171–1,219

Wins / Runs

14%

Strike rate

n=1,219

434 (36%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=1,214 · 0.88 incl. margin

−265.50

£1 level stake

n=1,219 at SP · −21.8%

£2.99m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

19%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,219 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr Fresh horses: 14.1% 39.2% when favourite Daniel Muscutt: 17.1% from 519 Sends off the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (21.5%, n=135), clear of the yard's 14% baseline. It is weakest at Windsor (4.5% over 44 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 9.3% (n=107, Fair A/E 0.75). Daniel Muscutt rides 43% of the entries and edges the yard's average (17.1% vs 14%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (24.5%, n=49). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Oct 2021, £127,545). The stable star of the record: Drama (GB) — 5 wins from 19 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

14.1%+0.1

n=220 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −22.77

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.2%−3.8

n=49 · A/E 0.71 · £1 +2.25

Debutants · first career start

9.5%−4.5

n=158 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −31.94

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.3%−4.7

n=107 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −42.92

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

27.3%+13.3

n=11 · A/E 2.63 · £1 +6.20

When favourite

39.2%

n=189 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +5.36

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.2%−2.8

n=116 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −17.76

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

13%−1.0

n=54 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +8.60

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Oisin Murphy 25% vs 14% · n=56

On last-time-out winners 22.2% vs 14% · n=158

Over 1m5f – 2m 24.5% vs 14% · n=49

At Wolverhampton (AW) 21.5% vs 14% · n=135

At Windsor 4.5% vs 14% · n=44

At Haydock 4.7% vs 14% · n=43

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 598 100 16.7% −96.91

Good 223 29 13% −40.75

Good to Firm 216 22 10.2% −59.06

Good to Soft 92 10 10.9% −46.11

Soft 77 9 11.7% −17.17

Heavy 11 1 9.1% −3.50

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 152 23 15.1% −33.65

Wolverhampton (AW) 135 29 21.5% +15.95

Southwell (AW) 85 16 18.8% −25.81

Chelmsford City (AW) 78 8 10.3% −22.63

Lingfield (AW) 74 8 10.8% −43.57

Newcastle (AW) 74 16 21.6% +12.80

Yarmouth 61 8 13.1% −10.78

Windsor 44 2 4.5% −35.90

Haydock 43 2 4.7% −36.62

Newbury 37 6 16.2% +31.48

Newmarket 37 4 10.8% +5.50

Newmarket 36 3 8.3% −16.50

Doncaster 36 7 19.4% −3.61

York 32 4 12.5% −12.88

Salisbury 30 7 23.3% +7.43

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 491 72 14.7% −87.61

Class 4 336 43 12.8% −105.74

Class 6 177 33 18.6% −9.65

Class 2 89 7 7.9% −40.40

Class 3 72 9 12.5% −30.70

Class 1 54 7 13% +8.60

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 213 77 36.2% 1.14 −5.14

2nd–3rd fav 349 53 15.2% 0.89 −85.96

4th–6th fav 395 33 8.4% 1.04 −74.40

7th+ in betting 262 8 3.1% 0.94 −100.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Diderot (GB)from G M Lyons · then Julie Camacho 21 3 10 7 Feb 25

First Folio (GB)from H-F Devin · then Julie Camacho 21 3 5 7 Oct 23

Papagei (GB)then Thomas Gibney 20 3 8 23 Oct 25

Dibble Dabble (GB) 20 3 7 4 Sep 25

Drama (GB) 19 5 8 1 Oct 25

Bernalda (GB) 16 2 6 17 Nov 25

Menalippe (IRE) 16 2 4 11 Jul 23

Karakula Dancer (GB)then Martin Dunne 15 3 8 6 Jul 26

Wonder Legend (IRE) 15 5 9 2 Aug 25

Shabu Shabu (IRE)then Matt Crawley 14 1 4 25 Apr 26

Deauville Legend (IRE) 14 3 6 13 Jul 24

Cyclonite (USA) 13 2 8 27 Jun 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 207 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Jamie Osborne (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

33 have since run for another yard, most often for B F Brookhouse (2) and Ciaran Murphy (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

17321521111211141271325

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDaniel Muscutt

43% of all rides
17.1% SR · A/E 1.17

RiderRWSR£1

Daniel Muscutt 519 89 17.1% −17.39

Jonny Peate 65 6 9.2% −33.68

Oisin Murphy 56 14 25% +7.64

Saffie Osborne 43 3 7% −26.40

Cieren Fallon 35 5 14.3% −6.75

Ray Dawson 33 4 12.1% −17.62

Hollie Doyle 33 6 18.2% −15.28

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→

171

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.99m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 33 wins

El Bodegon (IRE) — Criterium de Saint-Cloud (2yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2021 · Group 1

£127,545

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) York · Aug 2022 · Group 2

£113,420

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Jul 2022 · Group 3

£113,420

Notable horses

Drama (GB) Wonder Legend (IRE) Awesomedude (GB) Arabian King (GB) Mack The Knife (IRE) Prince Eric (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sea The Stars (IRE) 22.1% · 17–77

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,969 runs since 2013 (1,115 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 456. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Dark Angel (IRE) 14% · 7–50

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,921 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Australia (GB) 33.3% · 16–48

Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,669 runs since 2018 (566 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Masar (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35

Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,230 runs since 2023 (176 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.6% from 167. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.2% from 134. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 167. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.7% from 220.

Frankel (GB) 15.2% · 5–33

Progeny have won 18% of 7,529 runs since 2016 (880 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.3% from 269.

Wootton Bassett (GB) 15.2% · 5–33

Progeny have won 13% of 5,685 runs since 2015 (790 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,219 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,219 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 November 2019 to 17 July 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Jul 26 Newbury God Given Talent (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Apple Print & Creative Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 6th 20/1

14 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Luan (FR)J: Billy Loughnane Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 13/8F

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Last Flight (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sky Sports Racing Sky 512 HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 22/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Nautical Sky (GB)J: Jonny Peate Cavani Sartorial Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 11/2

06 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Karakula Dancer (GB)J: Liam Wright Roy Grimwood Memorial HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 9/2

06 Jul 26 Lingfield (AW) Whazzimo (GB)J: Daniel Muscutt Follow attheraces On Instagram HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 17/2

26 Jun 26 Newmarket Khuskhas (GB)J: Robert Havlin Air Charter Service HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 20/1

26 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Luan (FR)J: Mr Henry Callan JenningsBet In Newcastle Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 1st 9/2

18 Jun 26 Ascot Celtic Charioteer (GB)J: Jonny Peate Chesham Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th 100/1

18 Jun 26 Yarmouth Yumuri (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Download The QuinnBet App EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 8th 7/1

16 Jun 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Last Flight (GB)J: Liam Wright Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 18/1

16 Jun 26 Ascot God Given Talent (IRE)J: William Buick Coventry Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 21 ran 19th 25/1

13 Jun 26 Leicester Gifts Differing (GB)J: Daniel Muscutt Best Ticket Prices Online At leicester-racecourse.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 8 ran 6th 12/1

13 Jun 26 Bath Whazzimo (GB)J: Jonny Peate Marsha Naify British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 50/1

13 Jun 26 Sandown Flash Of Fire (GB)J: Oisin Murphy BetMGM Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 7th 4/1

11 Jun 26 Nottingham Song Of The Stars (GB)J: Harry Vigors Watch On RacingTV HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 7/2

10 Jun 26 Kempton (AW) Karakula (GB)J: Toby Moore Unibet Supports Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 6th 11/2

10 Jun 26 Yarmouth Cavolo Nero (GB)J: Jonny Peate Royal Ascot On Sky Sports Racing HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 9/2

08 Jun 26 Windsor Nautical Sky (GB)J: Saffie Osborne Network Airline Services HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 8/1

08 Jun 26 Leicester Celtic Charioteer (GB)J: Jonny Peate Go West Live At LeicesterRaces Saturday 4th July Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 1st 9/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is James Ferguson's strike rate?: James Ferguson has won 171 of 1,219 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Ferguson do best at?: Salisbury by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 runners (23.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Ferguson?: Daniel Muscutt, with 519 runners since 2008 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 89 (17.1%).
What is James Ferguson's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 1,214 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.