What is Paul W Flynn's strike rate?

Paul W Flynn has won 236 of 3,337 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul W Flynn do best at?

Dundalk by strike rate: 51 wins from 486 runners (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul W Flynn?

Robert Whearty, with 176 runners since 2008 — 5% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (10.8%).

Is Paul W Flynn in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Paul W Flynn's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 3,335 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul W Flynn

3,337 runners in the lifetime window · 381 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 11.2% of 322 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.2–8.0% over 364 racing days). As at 15 Nov 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

236–3,337

Wins / Runs

7.1%

Strike rate

n=3,337

744 (22%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=3,335 · 0.79 incl. margin

−1,033.54

£1 level stake

n=3,337 at SP · −31.0%

£3.09m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 180 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,337 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.7% 27.5% when favourite Robert Whearty: 10.8% from 176 Claiming riders: 7.3% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (15.1%, n=93), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. Debutants struggle at 2.4% (n=207, Fair A/E 0.79). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 7.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.34 and +55.38 to a £1 stake over 561 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 3.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −111.00 to a £1 stake over 190 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Robert Whearty rides 5% of the entries and edges the yard's average (10.8% vs 7.1%, A/E 1.50) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 4 (19.5%, n=41). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Galway (Jul 2011, £156,600). The stable star of the record: Little Queenie (IRE) — 8 wins from 44 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.7%+0.6

n=561 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +55.38

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.4%−0.7

n=171 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −34.50

Debutants · first career start

2.4%−4.7

n=207 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −120.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.2%−3.9

n=190 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −111.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.1%+0.0

n=253 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +12.58

When favourite

27.5%

n=189 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −17.55

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.3%+0.2

n=1,343 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −354.97

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.3%−2.8

n=70 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −37.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 4 19.5% vs 7.1% · n=41

With Davy Russell 17.6% vs 7.1% · n=34

At Sligo 15.1% vs 7.1% · n=93

With Dylan Browne McMonagle 15.1% vs 7.1% · n=73

With C&D winners 12.4% vs 7.1% · n=274

On last-time-out winners 11.9% vs 7.1% · n=227

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,744 129 7.4% −562.25

Hurdle 1,077 59 5.5% −416.63

Chase 435 45 10.3% −33.66

NH Flat 81 3 3.7% −21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,014 83 8.2% −31.93

Soft 870 44 5.1% −393.55

Standard (AW) 511 54 10.6% −149.91

Good to Soft 331 20 6% −145.67

Heavy 330 15 4.5% −170.17

Good to Firm 253 18 7.1% −118.79

Firm 28 2 7.1% −23.52

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 486 51 10.5% −136.49

Navan 225 13 5.8% −127.67

Roscommon 198 13 6.6% −117.02

Leopardstown 177 10 5.6% −64.67

Cork 158 10 6.3% −54.00

Gowran Park 157 6 3.8% −107.00

Curragh 143 4 2.8% −103.00

Naas 134 6 4.5% −30.00

Limerick 134 11 8.2% −64.67

Ballinrobe 132 11 8.3% −47.09

Galway 128 4 3.1% −82.00

Kilbeggan 125 11 8.8% +27.67

Fairyhouse 121 7 5.8% −7.17

Killarney 103 8 7.8% +72.83

Punchestown 101 4 4% −70.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 64 3 4.7% −31.75

Class 4 41 8 19.5% +127.33

Class 6 31 3 9.7% −19.42

Class 5 21 3 14.3% −7.62

Class 3 11 2 18.2% −4.67

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 244 65 26.6% 1.22 −7.39

2nd–3rd fav 508 67 13.2% 0.96 −134.15

4th–6th fav 858 56 6.5% 0.88 −312.00

7th+ in betting 1,727 48 2.8% 1.01 −580.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 741 52 7% −164.61

2m1f – 2m4f 666 51 7.7% −242.14

1m – 1m1f 546 43 7.9% −98.48

6f – 7f 506 29 5.7% −258.87

1m2f – 1m4f 453 38 8.4% −136.90

2m5f – 3m 301 16 5.3% −55.79

Under 6f 84 4 4.8% −66.25

Over 3m 40 3 7.5% −10.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 125 10 8% −26.00

2009 158 20 12.7% +144.31

2010 211 15 7.1% −98.17

2011 186 14 7.5% −71.79

2012 173 4 2.3% −154.75

2013 141 9 6.4% −54.67

2014 143 5 3.5% −117.50

2015 131 10 7.6% −59.50

2016 118 5 4.2% −75.50

2017 124 9 7.3% −51.50

2018 114 6 5.3% −50.50

2019 130 3 2.3% −78.00

2020 152 7 4.6% −61.67

2021 178 7 3.9% −27.17

2022 225 17 7.6% −132.34

2023 231 24 10.4% +0.56

2024 280 27 9.6% −89.82

2025 246 21 8.5% −35.75

2026 271 23 8.5% +6.22

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,106 173 8.2% −516.84

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 1,191 78 6.5% −395.06

11-13 runners 759 62 8.2% −145.17

17+ runners 734 25 3.4% −487.59

8-10 runners 465 47 10.1% +7.50

5-7 runners 178 22 12.4% −9.34

2-4 runners 10 2 20% −3.88

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Boxer Beat (IRE)from G M Lyons · then Tim Bryce 55 1 17 1 Oct 14

Liberty's Gift (IRE) 50 5 21 28 Aug 16

Roachdale House (IRE)from D K Weld 47 2 9 4 Oct 20

Moon Dice (IRE) 47 4 9 29 Mar 16

Little Queenie (IRE)from John C McConnell 44 8 19 22 Jul 26

Power Drive (GB)from Charles O'Brien 43 4 9 12 Jun 24

Clever Currency (IRE)from Patrick Neville · then Michael Bell 43 3 11 11 Jun 24

Jackie Ellis (IRE) 43 2 10 28 Aug 17

Try Again (IRE) 42 7 20 4 Oct 20

Na Caith Tobac (HOL)from Gavin Cromwell 38 5 15 30 Sep 22

Golden Sandbanks (GB)from Iain Jardine 37 7 13 29 Jul 24

The Ring Is King (IRE) 37 7 12 13 May 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 381 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (2) and G M Lyons (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

19 have since run for another yard, most often for Denis Gerard Hogan (2); 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 7

Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1146986976576

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRobert Whearty

5% of all rides
10.8% SR · A/E 1.50

RiderRWSR£1

Robert Whearty 176 19 10.8% −25.51

Michael Darcy 169 16 9.5% +3.33

Luke McAteer 125 7 5.6% −32.17

P B Beggy 99 11 11.1% −9.25

Rory Cleary 93 2 2.2% −83.50

L P Dempsey 84 5 6% −26.00

Kevin Sexton 83 7 8.4% −38.75

Leigh Roche 82 7 8.5% +68.00

Colin Keane 81 9 11.1% −7.09

Barry Browne 74 6 8.1% −2.67

Dylan Browne McMonagle 73 11 15.1% +68.25

Keith Donoghue 69 9 13% −6.92

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

236

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.09m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 27 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Moon Dice (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (grade A) Galway · Jul 2011 · Grade A

£156,600

Drunken Sailor (IRE) — Arthur's Day Handicap Galway · Jul 2009

£42,315

Timourid (IRE) — Novibet Guineas Festival Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · May 2023

£29,500

Notable horses

Little Queenie (IRE) Archie Boy (IRE) Try Again (IRE) Golden Sandbanks (GB) The Ring Is King (IRE) The Big Chap (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 9.2% · 10–109

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,649 runs since 2013 (844 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.9% from 330.

Elzaam (AUS) 7.1% · 7–98

Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,533 runs since 2016 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.2% from 328.

Flemensfirth (USA) 6.7% · 6–90

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,297 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Excellent Art (GB) 5.6% · 4–72

Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2011 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.

Policy Maker (IRE) 11.9% · 8–67

Progeny have won 9% of 1,260 runs since 2010 (145 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.4% from 204. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.7% from 128.

Basanta (IRE) 13.8% · 9–65

Progeny have won 8.7% of 368 runs since 2008 (41 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,364 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,364 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 April 2007 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Glamazon (IRE)J: Luke McAteer Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 16/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jazz Forever (IRE)J: Nina Doherty Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 16/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Caffu Zafeen (IRE)J: Nina Doherty Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap6f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 13/2

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) I Ready (IRE)J: Colin Keane Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 11/4

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Lady Quigley (IRE)J: Robert Whearty Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Nursery Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 16/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Caffu Zafeen (IRE)J: Orla Tynan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap6f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 100/30

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Willofthepeople (IRE)J: Ben Kennedy Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 10th 66/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Whatsin The Stars (IRE)J: Nina Doherty Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Jurality (GB)J: Donagh Meyler Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 2nd 11/2

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Soldier Saint (IRE)J: Ben Kennedy Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 7th 11/2

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Nibras Rainbow (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Always Gambling Responsibly With 1xBet.ie Handicap8f · Yielding · 23 ran 11th 22/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Dark Summit (GB)J: J M Sheridan 1xBet.ie Supports The Curragh Handicap10f · Yielding · 24 ran 2nd 16/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Glamazon (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Dine At Gowran Park Handicap7f · Yielding · 13 ran 13th 20/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Nibras Rainbow (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Christmas Festival Tickets On Sale Now Handicap10f · Good · 15 ran 15th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Whatsin The Stars (IRE)J: Shay Wallace Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 100/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Nibras Rainbow (IRE)J: Leigh Roche DNG Excellence Handicap9f · Yielding To Soft · 19 ran 11th 11/2

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Soldier Saint (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good · 17 ran 6th 7/2F

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Jurality (GB)J: Donagh Meyler Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 6th 11/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Pourquoi Poi (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Malone Windows Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 100/30

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) I Ready (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms EBF Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap6f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 5 runs (won 1) · to 13 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul W Flynn's strike rate?: Paul W Flynn has won 236 of 3,337 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul W Flynn do best at?: Dundalk by strike rate: 51 wins from 486 runners (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul W Flynn?: Robert Whearty, with 176 runners since 2008 — 5% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (10.8%).
Is Paul W Flynn in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul W Flynn's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 3,335 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.