What is Roger Fell's strike rate?

Roger Fell has won 354 of 3,648 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Roger Fell do best at?

Redcar by strike rate: 32 wins from 235 runners (13.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Roger Fell?

Ben Curtis, with 569 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 71 (12.5%).

Is Roger Fell in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Roger Fell's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 3,630 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Roger Fell

3,648 runners in the lifetime window · 284 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 1.5% of 269 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

Last runner 8 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

354–3,648

Wins / Runs

9.7%

Strike rate

n=3,648

1,011 (28%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=3,630 · 0.86 incl. margin

−839.38

£1 level stake

n=3,648 at SP · −23.0%

£3.83m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,648 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 30.8% when favourite Ben Curtis: 12.5% from 569 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

It is weakest at York (3.8% over 211 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 1.9% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.42). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −197.12 to a £1 stake over 366 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Ben Curtis rides 16% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.5% vs 9.7%, A/E 1.08) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17%, n=512). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 1.9% over 53 runners, 7.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 3: Fair A/E 0.55 across 345 runners (4.9% strike, −190.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2018, £93,375). The stable star of the record: Dapper Man (IRE) — 16 wins from 98 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.2%−4.5

n=366 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −197.12

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.5%−1.2

n=201 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −27.12

Debutants · first career start

4.3%−5.4

n=93 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −40.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.3%−3.4

n=80 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −32.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.6%−0.1

n=167 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −27.87

When favourite

30.8%

n=292 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −24.97

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.7%+0.0

n=954 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −224.47

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

1.9%−7.8

n=52 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −45.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 17% vs 9.7% · n=512

With Daniel Tudhope 17.2% vs 9.7% · n=93

At York 3.8% vs 9.7% · n=211

In Class 1 1.9% vs 9.7% · n=53

In Group / Graded races 1.9% vs 9.7% · n=52

In Class 3 4.9% vs 9.7% · n=345

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,601 351 9.7% −828.88

Hurdle 37 2 5.4% −26.50

Chase 5 1 20% +21.00

NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,157 101 8.7% −226.14

Good 815 73 9% −208.68

Good to Firm 745 89 11.9% −129.47

Soft 442 40 9% −105.30

Good to Soft 402 41 10.2% −145.79

Heavy 86 10 11.6% −23.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 618 44 7.1% −249.07

Southwell (AW) 331 40 12.1% +40.67

Thirsk 255 14 5.5% −113.42

Redcar 235 32 13.6% −30.17

Beverley 223 21 9.4% −39.45

York 211 8 3.8% −81.50

Ripon 189 19 10.1% −57.02

Catterick 187 18 9.6% −60.00

Doncaster 174 21 12.1% +11.13

Wolverhampton (AW) 153 12 7.8% +5.35

Pontefract 139 18 12.9% −43.15

Ayr 125 14 11.2% −44.24

Haydock 111 12 10.8% −48.09

Carlisle 108 13 12% −21.88

Hamilton 104 14 13.5% −49.16

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,123 106 9.4% −357.08

Class 6 1,000 120 12% −50.55

Class 4 834 92 11% −180.75

Class 3 345 17 4.9% −190.00

Class 2 283 17 6% −13.00

Class 1 53 1 1.9% −46.00

Class 7 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 353 106 30% 1.19 −18.56

2nd–3rd fav 746 107 14.3% 0.91 −177.82

4th–6th fav 1,159 92 7.9% 0.96 −277.00

7th+ in betting 1,390 49 3.5% 0.99 −366.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dapper Man (IRE)from D K Weld · then Roger Fell & Sean Murray 98 16 31 11 May 23

Muntadab (IRE)from David Loughnane · then Roger Fell & Sean Murray 75 12 26 27 May 23

Ustath (GB)from Owen Burrows 73 8 20 21 Apr 25

Zylan (IRE)from David Marnane 65 11 22 19 Jul 21

Tadaawol (GB)from Richard Hannon 63 6 19 18 Sep 20

Zihaam (GB)from Kevin Prendergast 62 8 15 14 Sep 22

Kapono (GB)from Amy Murphy 51 5 17 22 Apr 23

Presidential (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast 51 6 17 2 May 22

Cockalorum (IRE)from M Halford 47 6 17 11 May 25

End Zone (GB)from David Simcock 46 4 15 1 Nov 24

Zodiakos (IRE)from Hugo Palmer 46 7 16 5 Oct 20

Spantik (GB)from Archie Watson 44 3 11 26 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 284 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 19 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 50 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Loughnane (6) and Kevin Prendergast (5); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Roger Fell & Sean Murray (9) and Karen Tutty (4); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12851011131189997

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBen Curtis

16% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 1.08

RiderRWSR£1

Ben Curtis 569 71 12.5% −25.80

Tony Hamilton 355 35 9.9% −49.24

Ben Sanderson 329 39 11.9% −32.76

Jonny Peate 243 22 9.1% −32.05

Jason Hart 228 27 11.8% +17.59

Rowan Scott 146 7 4.8% −76.80

Paula Muir 115 6 5.2% −67.88

Callum Rodriguez 113 10 8.8% −56.37

Joanna Mason 101 13 12.9% −15.52

Daniel Tudhope 93 16 17.2% −3.05

Kevin Stott 75 9 12% +7.76

Connor Beasley 69 4 5.8% −43.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

354

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.83m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 58 wins

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£93,375

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Sovereign Path' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Leopardstown · Sep 2017

£88,500

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Bet365 Bunbury Cup Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£74,700

Notable horses

Dapper Man (IRE) Muntadab (IRE) Zylan (IRE) Ustath (GB) Zihaam (GB) Zodiakos (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.6% · 35–277

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,858 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.6% · 27–215

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,968 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kodiac (GB) 9.9% · 18–181

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,593 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 10.5% · 14–133

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,210 runs since 2014 (1,107 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Kyllachy (GB) 13.3% · 17–128

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Cotai Glory (GB) 14% · 17–121

Progeny have won 11.4% of 3,954 runs since 2021 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.6% from 1,420. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 427.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,648 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,648 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 September 2016 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Catterick Bai Tong (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Download The Raceday Ready App Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Kiss Me My Love (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 1st 15/8F

26 Oct 26 Redcar Khafiz (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Jumps Looks Better On Racing Tv Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 8/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Gold Queen Kindly (IRE)J: David Nolan Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 22/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Zarvali (IRE)J: David Nolan Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 6th 12/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Andesite (GB)J: David Nolan William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 33/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Zarvali (IRE)J: Oisin Orr William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 5th 25/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Woodleigh (IRE)J: Mr Jack Loughnane Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 6th 9/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Folkene (FR)J: Callum Shepherd racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 17th 14/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Kiss Me My Love (IRE)J: Kevin Stott racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 2nd 7/2F

16 Oct 26 Redcar Johns Power (GB)J: Joanna Mason Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 8/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Here Comes Louie (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 14/1

10 Oct 26 York Nyman (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 15th 11/1

09 Oct 26 York Big Cyril (IRE)J: Jack Callan Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 19th 50/1

09 Oct 26 York Khafiz (IRE)J: Jason Watson William Hill Gold Weekend Autumn Mile Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Twin And Tonic (GB)J: Cam Hardie Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 200/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Folkene (FR)J: Conor Whiteley Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 8th 9/2

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Alpha Capture (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 5th 7/2J

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Andesite (GB)J: Kevin Stott Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 12th 4/1J

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Gold Queen Kindly (IRE)J: Shane Gray Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 6th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Roger Fell's strike rate?: Roger Fell has won 354 of 3,648 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Fell do best at?: Redcar by strike rate: 32 wins from 235 runners (13.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Fell?: Ben Curtis, with 569 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 71 (12.5%).
Is Roger Fell in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Roger Fell's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 3,630 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.