What is John Bridger's strike rate?

John Bridger has won 207 of 3,434 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Bridger do best at?

Folkestone by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 runners (12.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Bridger?

William Carson, with 595 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 47 (7.9%).

What is John Bridger's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 3,413 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Bridger

3,434 runners in the lifetime window · 165 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2023 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

207–3,434

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=3,434

677 (20%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=3,413 · 0.81 incl. margin

−1,331.76

£1 level stake

n=3,434 at SP · −38.8%

£1.20m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 180 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,434 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 26.2% when favourite William Carson: 7.9% from 595 New recruits: 6.3% Claiming riders: 6.2% Sends off the favourite in 2% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (10.9%, n=331) and Epsom (12.1%, n=91) — all clear of the yard's 6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 1.1% (n=89, Fair A/E 0.84). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −197.00 to a £1 stake over 297 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. William Carson rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (12.4%, n=298) and on Heavy going (14.1%, n=64). The stable star of the record: Megalala (IRE) — 20 wins from 148 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2%−4.0

n=297 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −197.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.3%+0.3

n=63 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −19.38

Debutants · first career start

1.1%−4.9

n=89 · A/E 0.84 · £1 +62.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.9%−3.1

n=69 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −27.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.1%−0.9

n=99 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −61.50

When favourite

26.2%

n=84 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −15.17

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.2%+0.2

n=1,171 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −495.55

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.0

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Soft going 12.4% vs 6% · n=298

On Heavy going 14.1% vs 6% · n=64

On last-time-out winners 11.8% vs 6% · n=211

At Brighton 10.9% vs 6% · n=331

On Soft going 11.1% vs 6% · n=262

At Epsom 12.1% vs 6% · n=91

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,373 206 6.1% −1,282.76

Hurdle 44 1 2.3% −32.00

NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Chase 8 0 0% −8.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,591 69 4.3% −836.26

Good to Firm 650 37 5.7% −271.67

Good 520 24 4.6% −146.37

Good to Soft 298 37 12.4% +17.62

Soft 262 29 11.1% −53.66

Heavy 64 9 14.1% −10.92

Firm 49 2 4.1% −30.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 812 33 4.1% −410.63

Lingfield (AW) 750 36 4.8% −396.63

Windsor 393 29 7.4% −53.25

Brighton 331 36 10.9% −85.04

Lingfield 303 27 8.9% +21.09

Goodwood 243 14 5.8% −123.80

Salisbury 182 6 3.3% −112.50

Newbury 99 5 5.1% −37.50

Epsom 91 11 12.1% −7.00

Sandown 54 2 3.7% −23.50

Bath 35 1 2.9% −31.25

Folkestone 31 4 12.9% −5.25

Fontwell 26 1 3.8% −14.00

Chelmsford (AW) 21 0 0% −21.00

Ascot 21 2 9.5% +10.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,611 98 6.1% −564.45

Class 5 1,264 69 5.5% −561.26

Class 4 359 29 8.1% −105.55

Class 7 94 6 6.4% −38.00

Class 3 70 5 7.1% −26.50

Class 2 32 0 0% −32.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 110 26 23.6% 0.95 −22.42

2nd–3rd fav 396 68 17.2% 1.14 −31.84

4th–6th fav 967 70 7.2% 0.95 −273.50

7th+ in betting 1,961 43 2.2% 0.73 −1,004.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,311 66 5% −639.00

1m2f – 1m4f 770 48 6.2% −235.62

1m – 1m1f 652 46 7.1% −240.67

Under 6f 605 45 7.4% −147.47

1m5f – 2m 58 1 1.7% −43.00

2m1f – 2m4f 18 0 0% −18.00

2m5f – 3m 10 0 0% −10.00

Over 3m 10 1 10% +2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 243 7 2.9% −133.50

2009 269 13 4.8% −129.00

2010 260 10 3.8% −146.00

2011 273 25 9.2% −55.88

2012 275 17 6.2% −121.00

2013 238 11 4.6% −141.58

2014 247 24 9.7% −43.87

2015 256 18 7% −94.42

2016 236 17 7.2% −99.00

2017 239 18 7.5% −95.62

2018 214 17 7.9% −57.75

2019 214 8 3.7% −111.17

2020 144 9 6.3% −52.88

2021 177 11 6.2% +68.91

2022 134 2 1.5% −104.00

2023 15 0 0% −15.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,833 194 6.8% −1,002.80

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,271 92 7.2% −287.13

11-13 runners 1,208 50 4.1% −610.75

5-7 runners 545 48 8.8% −205.63

14-16 runners 355 10 2.8% −202.00

2-4 runners 33 7 21.2% −4.25

17+ runners 22 0 0% −22.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pharoh Jake (GB) 147 12 45 11 Mar 20

Welsh Inlet (IRE)from Stuart Williams 125 10 33 24 Oct 17

Shifting Star (IRE)from Walter Swinburn 124 11 37 9 Jan 19

Megalala (IRE) 122 19 42 23 Oct 17

Choral Festival (GB)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt 109 12 40 27 Oct 16

Commandingpresence (USA)from Ms J S Doyle 92 6 25 15 Sep 14

Pettochside (GB)from Chris Gordon 89 12 34 2 Nov 22

Starwatch (GB) 88 13 25 23 Jun 16

Byrd In Hand (IRE) 87 4 30 3 Jun 16

Silvee (GB) 85 5 13 19 Nov 14

Inquisitress (GB)from James Eustace 83 6 11 8 Dec 12

Fairy Mist (IRE)from Brian Rothwell 74 6 18 20 Jan 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 165 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ms J S Doyle (4) and Jonathan Geake (2); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Rachel Cook & John Bridger (3); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

562688775627

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderWilliam Carson

17% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

William Carson 595 47 7.9% −32.92

Kieran O'Neill 485 34 7% −123.22

Neil Chalmers 280 18 6.4% −91.25

Sean Levey 130 12 9.2% −49.25

Marc Halford 122 6 4.9% −45.00

Mitch Godwin 95 6 6.3% −47.25

Danny Brock 82 4 4.9% −46.50

Aled Beech 72 5 6.9% −36.00

George Rooke 68 4 5.9% −11.00

Liam Jones 59 6 10.2% +43.00

William Twiston-Davies 57 5 8.8% −20.50

Kieren Fox 48 2 4.2% −27.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

252

Archived wins

£1.39m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 25 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Hallingdal (UAE) — Totepool E.b.f. Fillies' Handicap Folkestone · Aug 2009 · Class 3

£9,714

Pettochside (GB) — 188bet.co.uk Handicap Goodwood · Oct 2017 · Class 3

£9,704

Pettochside (GB) — Matchbook Betting Podcast Handicap Goodwood · May 2018 · Class 3

£9,704

Notable horses

Megalala (IRE) Starwatch (GB) Pharoh Jake (GB) Choral Festival (GB) Pettochside (GB) Shifting Star (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Piccolo (GB) 5.9% · 14–239

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Fasliyev (USA) 5.5% · 8–145

Progeny have won 8.3% of 4,140 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.1% from 124.

Byron (GB) 9.3% · 12–129

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,248 runs since 2010 (225 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 172.

Kheleyf (USA) 8% · 10–125

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,547 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Night Shift (USA) 8.9% · 11–124

Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,176 runs since 2008 (140 horses).

Petardia (GB) 15.6% · 19–122

Progeny have won 11.4% of 184 runs since 2008 (6 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.4% from 110.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,279 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,279 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 19 April 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Apr 23 Kempton (AW) Beau Jardine (IRE)J: Luke Morris Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 14/1

19 Apr 23 Kempton (AW) Rhythm Dancer (GB)J: Mollie Phillips Unibet Supporting Safe Gambling Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 7th 250/1

17 Apr 23 Kempton (AW) Be Prepared (GB)J: David Egan More Extra Place Races At Unibet HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 25/1

17 Apr 23 Kempton (AW) Penny Be (GB)J: David Egan Unibet Support Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 8th 150/1

31 Mar 23 Lingfield (AW) Penny Be (GB)J: David Egan talkSPORT Powered By Fans HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 50/1

25 Mar 23 Lingfield (AW) Be Prepared (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Betuk Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 33/1

25 Mar 23 Lingfield (AW) Beau Jardine (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Spreadex Sports In-play Racing Betting HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 50/1

03 Mar 23 Lingfield (AW) Rhythm Dancer (GB)J: George Rooke Huge Daily Boosts Only At BetUK Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 200/1

01 Mar 23 Lingfield (AW) Penny Be (GB)J: George Rooke Spreadex Sports First Goalscorer Insurance Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 125/1

15 Feb 23 Kempton (AW) Raphel Jake (GB)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Unibet Extra Place Offers Every Day Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 7th 125/1

11 Feb 23 Lingfield (AW) Beau Jardine (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Spreadex Sports In-Play Racing Betting HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 22/1

10 Feb 23 Kempton Pearly Girl (GB)J: Shane Quinlan Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 250/1

17 Jan 23 Kempton (AW) Beau Jardine (IRE)J: Miss Arabella Fox Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 9th 40/1

17 Jan 23 Kempton (AW) Raphel Jake (GB)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Unibet Supports Safe Gambling Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 6th 300/1

06 Jan 23 Kempton (AW) The Last Tango (GB)J: Charlie Bennett Unibet Support Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 8th 150/1

31 Dec 22 Lingfield (AW) Elementofsurprise (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Top Odds Every Day With Betuk HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 200/1

21 Dec 22 Lingfield (AW) Pearly Girl (GB)J: James Best Download The At The Races App Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (AWT)Class 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 150/1

19 Dec 22 Kempton (AW) Debbie's Choice (IRE)J: Thore Hammer Hansen Ladbrokes Play '1-2-Free' On Football Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 10th 80/1

14 Dec 22 Kempton (AW) Be Prepared (GB)J: William Carson Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 11th 150/1

14 Dec 22 Kempton (AW) Debbie's Choice (IRE)J: Tyler Heard Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 11th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Bridger's strike rate?: John Bridger has won 207 of 3,434 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Bridger do best at?: Folkestone by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 runners (12.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Bridger?: William Carson, with 595 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 47 (7.9%).
What is John Bridger's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 3,413 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.