What is Paul Midgley's strike rate?

Paul Midgley has won 621 of 6,926 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Midgley do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 29 wins from 216 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Midgley?

Graham Lee, with 848 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 89 (10.5%).

Is Paul Midgley in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 12 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Paul Midgley's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 6,881 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Midgley

6,926 runners in the lifetime window · 472 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.3% of 333 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 7 Nov 2026.

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

621–6,926

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=6,926

1,797 (26%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=6,881 · 0.84 incl. margin

−1,710.95

£1 level stake

n=6,926 at SP · −24.7%

£5.88m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 360 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99).

Deterministic profile computed from 6,926 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 27.5% when favourite Graham Lee: 10.5% from 848 Claiming riders: 9.1% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 1.1% (n=189, Fair A/E 0.35). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.48 and −83.75 to a £1 stake over 105 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Graham Lee rides 12% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.5%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14.9%, n=498). The record reads poorly on Firm going — 0% over 41 runners, 9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.30 across 67 runners (1.5% strike, −44.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap at Musselburgh (Jun 2017, £62,250). The stable star of the record: Silvanus (IRE) — 14 wins from 110 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.4%−2.6

n=856 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −238.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

5%−4.0

n=259 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −162.75

Debutants · first career start

1.1%−7.9

n=189 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −167.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.4%−1.6

n=135 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −46.87

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.7%−0.3

n=218 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −36.25

When favourite

27.5%

n=473 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −38.79

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.1%+0.1

n=1,101 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −108.86

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.8%−5.2

n=105 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −83.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15.5% vs 9% · n=613

With debutants 1.1% vs 9% · n=189

With Jason Hart 18.1% vs 9% · n=72

Off a 0-7-day break 14.9% vs 9% · n=498

On Firm going 0% vs 9% · n=41

In Hurdle races 1.5% vs 9% · n=67

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 6,854 620 9% −1,661.95

Hurdle 67 1 1.5% −44.00

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Firm 1,982 192 9.7% −576.38

Good 1,832 160 8.7% −539.38

Standard (AW) 1,442 114 7.9% −328.18

Good to Soft 823 77 9.4% −77.53

Soft 659 69 10.5% −87.73

Heavy 147 9 6.1% −60.75

Firm 41 0 0% −41.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Beverley 618 58 9.4% −226.16

Newcastle (AW) 581 56 9.6% −109.07

Southwell (AW) 526 43 8.2% −112.74

Pontefract 481 53 11% +3.33

Thirsk 472 39 8.3% −144.25

Redcar 446 35 7.8% −166.20

Ripon 410 45 11% −59.59

Catterick 395 42 10.6% −45.92

Doncaster 393 25 6.4% −185.42

Musselburgh 361 42 11.6% −68.81

York 333 16 4.8% −66.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 239 10 4.2% −82.12

Nottingham 216 29 13.4% −46.69

Hamilton 178 22 12.4% +35.37

Haydock 171 12 7% −75.55

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,339 207 8.8% −572.83

Class 6 1,928 193 10% −470.84

Class 4 1,516 140 9.2% −265.15

Class 3 601 55 9.2% −147.08

Class 2 402 18 4.5% −176.80

Class 1 105 4 3.8% −83.75

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 597 155 26% 1.03 −59.55

2nd–3rd fav 1,272 208 16.4% 1.07 −95.90

4th–6th fav 2,112 160 7.6% 0.92 −491.00

7th+ in betting 2,945 98 3.3% 0.90 −1,064.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

Under 6f 3,699 401 10.8% −420.80

6f – 7f 2,264 158 7% −931.31

1m – 1m1f 465 32 6.9% −151.74

1m2f – 1m4f 374 26 7% −141.60

1m5f – 2m 90 2 2.2% −73.50

2m1f – 2m4f 28 2 7.1% +14.00

2m5f – 3m 6 0 0% −6.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 342 24 7% −102.11

2009 496 45 9.1% −67.63

2010 484 27 5.6% −220.02

2011 493 51 10.3% −19.43

2012 476 33 6.9% −172.88

2013 276 19 6.9% −138.87

2014 253 29 11.5% −18.31

2015 193 19 9.8% −36.87

2016 320 28 8.8% −125.25

2017 375 35 9.3% −30.75

2018 418 39 9.3% −107.03

2019 341 35 10.3% −92.56

2020 306 36 11.8% −32.07

2021 360 33 9.2% −78.10

2022 344 36 10.5% −18.64

2023 409 29 7.1% −218.84

2024 382 45 11.8% −68.54

2025 370 34 9.2% −63.05

2026 288 24 8.3% −100.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,659 535 9.5% −1,151.04

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,311 240 10.4% −536.35

11-13 runners 2,084 160 7.7% −439.01

5-7 runners 998 133 13.3% −181.62

14-16 runners 964 54 5.6% −356.50

17+ runners 508 22 4.3% −213.50

2-4 runners 61 12 19.7% +16.03

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Silvanus (IRE)from Ian Semple 110 14 33 23 Apr 18

Line Of Reason (IRE)from David Simcock 95 10 25 28 Nov 20

Mr Orange (IRE) 74 11 22 5 Aug 22

Haajes (GB)from John Balding 74 8 22 25 May 15

Another Wise Kid (IRE) 71 9 23 28 Jul 17

Latin Five (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 69 7 20 8 Apr 26

Rub of The Relic (IRE)from P A Blockley 64 5 19 24 Sep 13

Spirit of Coniston (GB)from David Nicholls 62 5 17 10 Sep 12

Dispol Grand (IRE) 61 8 18 31 Oct 12

Toby Tyler (GB) 59 9 16 22 Oct 12

Ventura Express (GB)from Richard Fahey 58 6 20 20 Oct 26

Birkenhead (GB)from Les Eyre 58 7 24 9 May 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 472 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 34 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 46 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Ryan (3) and Richard Fahey (3); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 12

Only 12 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

79551012101187813

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderGraham Lee

12% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Graham Lee 848 89 10.5% −88.57

Micky Fenton 663 49 7.4% −242.99

Paul Mulrennan 476 55 11.6% −102.25

David Nolan 435 44 10.1% −117.52

Paul Pickard 276 23 8.3% +3.13

Kevin Stott 237 30 12.7% −56.39

Barry McHugh 228 17 7.5% −11.90

Tony Culhane 192 20 10.4% +4.62

Jamie Moriarty 183 10 5.5% −90.12

Cam Hardie 172 9 5.2% −73.00

Ben Robinson 161 10 6.2% −55.13

P J McDonald 157 12 7.6% −49.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

662

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.08m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 51 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Line Of Reason (IRE) — William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Musselburgh · Jun 2017 · Class 2

£62,250

Tanasoq (IRE) — Investec Corporate Banking 'dash' Handicap Epsom Downs · Jun 2018 · Class 2

£61,590

Desert Law (IRE) — Investec Corporate Banking 'Dash' (Heritage Handicap) Epsom Downs · Jun 2015 · Class 2

£61,590

Notable horses

Silvanus (IRE) Mr Orange (IRE) Tarboosh (GB) Line Of Reason (IRE) Highland Warrior (GB) Another Wise Kid (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.7% · 41–323

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,984 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kheleyf (USA) 10.3% · 23–224

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,549 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 13% · 21–162

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Acclamation (GB) 9.7% · 14–144

Progeny have won 10% of 19,714 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Camacho (GB) 10.5% · 15–143

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,326 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Orientor (GB) 12.2% · 15–123

Progeny have won 10% of 1,454 runs since 2011 (57 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,617 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,617 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Get Up Everybody (IRE)J: David Nolan Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 8/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Cairdeas (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 14/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Herakles (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 33/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Speeding Bullet (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 6/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Emperor Caradoc (FR)J: David Nolan Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 11/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Almarada Prince (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 11/4F

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Tiriac (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 9/2

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Rock Of England (IRE)J: David Nolan 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 10th 16/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Vingegaard (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 3rd 20/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Run This Way (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 11/2

26 Oct 26 Redcar Run This Way (GB)J: David Nolan Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 5th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Cairdeas (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 12/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mubehir (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 25/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Speeding Bullet (IRE)J: Alex Jary Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 17/2

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Herakles (IRE)J: Jason Hart Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 16/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Ventura Express (GB)J: David Nolan Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 17/2

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Get Up Everybody (IRE)J: David Nolan All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 13/2

20 Oct 26 Hexham Jedhi Knight (GB)J: Tom Midgley Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Rock Of England (IRE)J: Kevin Stott William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 10/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Emerald Harmony (IRE)J: David Nolan Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Midgley's strike rate?: Paul Midgley has won 621 of 6,926 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Midgley do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 29 wins from 216 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Midgley?: Graham Lee, with 848 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 89 (10.5%).
Is Paul Midgley in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 12 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Midgley's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 6,881 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.