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Trainer profile

Shaun Keightley

515 runners in the lifetime window · 60 individual horses
As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2021 96% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
49–515
Wins / Runs
9.5%
Strike rate
n=515
125 (24%)
Placed
1.17
Fair A/E
n=512 · 1.00 incl. margin
−147.06
£1 level stake
n=515 at SP · −28.6%
£305k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.17). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 19% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 515 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Aug–Sep 43.3% when favourite Josephine Gordon: 11% from 228 Headgear returns: 19.4% Sent off the favourite in 6% of races
The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 19.4% (n=31, Fair A/E 1.97), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). Josephine Gordon rode 44% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11%, A/E 1.25) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (32.3%, n=31) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (19.2%, n=73). The stable star of the record was Trouble Shooter (IRE) — 5 wins from 19 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%−2.6
n=72 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −39.17
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.1%−3.4
n=33 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −15.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.5
n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.5
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
19.4%+9.9
n=31 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +15.25
When favourite
43.3%
n=30 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +10.49
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.4%−1.1
n=131 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −22.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 38% vs 9.5% · n=50
Off a 0-7-day break 32.3% vs 9.5% · n=31
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 19.2% vs 9.5% · n=73
With headgear back on 19.4% vs 9.5% · n=31
With debutants 0% vs 9.5% · n=30
With C&D winners 16.4% vs 9.5% · n=73
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 495 48 9.7% −140.06
Hurdle 12 1 8.3% +1.00
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 383 35 9.1% −95.88
Good 40 5 12.5% −21.42
Good to Firm 34 2 5.9% −27.88
Soft 26 4 15.4% −1.88
Good to Soft 24 2 8.3% −4.00
Heavy 7 1 14.3% +5.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chelmsford City (AW) 106 12 11.3% +13.87
Kempton (AW) 90 10 11.1% −16.67
Wolverhampton (AW) 86 5 5.8% −54.50
Southwell (AW) 55 6 10.9% −9.08
Lingfield (AW) 39 1 2.6% −28.00
Yarmouth 20 4 20% +2.45
Leicester 14 1 7.1% −7.00
Windsor 13 0 0% −13.00
Newmarket 9 2 22.2% +3.62
Newmarket 8 0 0% −8.00
Lingfield 7 0 0% −7.00
Nottingham 7 1 14.3% −0.50
Huntingdon 6 0 0% −6.00
Newbury 6 0 0% −6.00
Newcastle (AW) 6 1 16.7% −0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 251 30 12% −11.30
Class 5 156 11 7.1% −87.01
Class 4 80 6 7.5% −38.75
Class 3 15 1 6.7% −5.00
Class 7 9 1 11.1% −1.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 38 14 36.8% 1.50 +6.82
2nd–3rd fav 89 17 19.1% 1.24 +7.62
4th–6th fav 138 14 10.1% 1.18 +8.50
7th+ in betting 250 4 1.6% 0.56 −170.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Catapult (GB)from Clifford Lines 31 3 8 20 Jul 21
Lilkian (GB)then Darryll Holland 24 4 8 1 Mar 21
Elusif (IRE)from Marco Botti · then Phil McEntee 22 3 4 14 Jan 20
Masked Identity (GB)from Kevin Frost · then Mark Loughnane 21 1 7 22 Jun 21
Rail Dancer (GB)from Richard Rowe · then Phil McEntee 20 2 4 4 Jan 20
Image Of The Moon (GB) 19 2 9 2 Nov 20
Trouble Shooter (IRE)then Richard Guest 19 5 7 23 Oct 19
Silver Nemo (IRE)then Lee Smyth 18 2 7 20 Nov 21
Canimar (GB)from Ed Dunlop · then Seamus Durack 18 0 3 3 Jan 20
San Juan (IRE)then Mark Loughnane 17 3 5 9 Dec 21
Alpine Mistral (IRE) 17 5 6 11 Oct 21
John Joiner (GB)from Peter Hedger 16 0 3 22 Jul 20
All 60 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Clifford Lines (2) and Richard Guest (2); 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

30 have since run for another yard, most often for Phil McEntee (6) and Mark Loughnane (3); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
121011116992013742
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJosephine Gordon
44% of all rides
11% SR · A/E 1.25
RiderRWSR£1
Josephine Gordon 228 25 11% −59.51
Gavin Ashton 47 3 6.4% −10.67
Molly Presland 31 4 12.9% +11.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
56
Archived wins
£339k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 21 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Masked Identity (GB) — Price Promise At bet365 Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2020 · Class 3
£9,704
Dance Teacher (IRE) — Smarkets British EBF Fifinella Fillies' Handicap Epsom Downs · Aug 2018 · Class 4
£7,116
Trouble Shooter (IRE) — 32Red Handicap Kempton (AW) · Sep 2019 · Class 4
£6,469
Notable horses
Trouble Shooter (IRE) Alpine Mistral (IRE) Lilkian (GB) Catapult (GB) Elusif (IRE) San Juan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Sepoy (AUS) 16.3% · 7–43
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,373 runs since 2016 (279 horses).
Equiano (FR) 9.4% · 3–32
Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,543 runs since 2014 (549 horses).
Havana Gold (IRE) 6.9% · 2–29
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,064 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Dark Angel (IRE) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Captain Gerrard (IRE) 0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,054 runs since 2013 (175 horses).
Elusive Quality (USA) 13.6% · 3–22
Progeny have won 12.3% of 3,387 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 280. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 319.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 623 · newest first

The latest 50 of 623 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 9 December 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Dec 21 Chelmsford City (AW) San Juan (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Racing Is Everyone's Sport Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 13/2
20 Nov 21 Lingfield (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Dougie Costello MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 33/1
06 Nov 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Silver Nemo (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Edward Brown's 80th Birthday HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 11/1
23 Oct 21 Chelmsford City (AW) San Juan (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Chelmsford City Racecourse Membership Available Now HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 5/2
21 Oct 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Silvestre De Sousa Heed Your Hunch At Betway HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 18/1
18 Oct 21 Wolverhampton (AW) You Missed Her (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Cazoo Novice StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 50/1
11 Oct 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Alpine Mistral (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Read Hollie Doyle's Column On attheraces.com HandicapClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 22/1
09 Oct 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Napoleon Warrior (GB)J: Dougie Costello tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 100/1
09 Oct 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 5/1
07 Oct 21 Chelmsford City (AW) San Juan (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon MansionBet Beaten A Head HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 16/1
02 Oct 21 Newmarket Alpine Mistral (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon British EBF Premier Fillies' HandicapClass 2 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 7th 40/1
21 Sep 21 Lingfield (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Gamble Responsibly With Casumo HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 12/1
15 Sep 21 Sandown Alpine Mistral (IRE)J: Richard Kingscote Coln Valley Stud Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 12/1
12 Sep 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Example Here Live 25th September HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 13/2
04 Sep 21 Kempton (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Try Our New Price Boosts At Unibet HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 5th 9/1
21 Aug 21 Lingfield (AW) San Juan (IRE)J: Alex Jary Read Hollie Doyle's Column On attheraces.com Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 4/1
20 Aug 21 Kempton (AW) Napoleon Warrior (GB)J: Joey Haynes Unibet New Instant Roulette Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 11th 500/1
15 Aug 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Salam Ya Faisal (IRE)J: Ray Dawson Tote.co.uk Live Streaming Every Uk Race HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 20/1
12 Aug 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Fox Leicester (IRE)J: Silvestre De Sousa Tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By Sp HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 5/1
11 Aug 21 Kempton (AW) Obsidian Gold (GB)J: Louis Steward Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Shaun Keightley's strike rate?
Shaun Keightley has won 49 of 515 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shaun Keightley do best at?
Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 106 runners (11.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Shaun Keightley?
Josephine Gordon, with 228 runners since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (11%).
What is Shaun Keightley's Fair A/E?
1.17, from 512 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 10 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).