What is Des Donovan's strike rate?

Des Donovan has won 81 of 1,167 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.9% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Des Donovan do best at?

Lingfield by strike rate: 7 wins from 37 runners (18.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Des Donovan?

David Probert, with 119 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (11.8%).

Is Des Donovan in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Des Donovan's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 1,160 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Des Donovan

1,167 runners in the lifetime window · 137 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 13 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

81–1,167

Wins / Runs

6.9%

Strike rate

n=1,167

232 (20%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=1,160 · 0.84 incl. margin

−399.62

£1 level stake

n=1,167 at SP · −34.2%

£485k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 10% first time out (58 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,167 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr 28.8% when favourite David Probert: 11.8% from 119 New recruits: 10.3% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (18.9%, n=37) and Brighton (15%, n=40) — all clear of the yard's 6.9% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 10.3% (n=58, Fair A/E 1.58), but debutants struggle at 1.2% (n=82, Fair A/E 0.42). David Probert rides 10% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.8% vs 6.9%, A/E 1.46) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (13.3%, n=105). The stable star of the record: Tevez (GB) — 7 wins from 67 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.4%−1.5

n=166 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −93.83

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.3%+3.4

n=58 · A/E 1.58 · £1 +3.25

Debutants · first career start

1.2%−5.7

n=82 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −67.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.6%−3.3

n=55 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −40.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.6%+1.7

n=70 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +15.50

When favourite

28.8%

n=52 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −4.20

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.3%−0.6

n=350 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −130.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.9

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 16.9% vs 6.9% · n=77

At Lingfield 18.9% vs 6.9% · n=37

With C&D winners 15.2% vs 6.9% · n=112

With Shane Kelly 16.3% vs 6.9% · n=43

At Brighton 15% vs 6.9% · n=40

Off a 0-7-day break 13.3% vs 6.9% · n=105

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,022 75 7.3% −359.70

Hurdle 107 5 4.7% −6.42

Chase 29 1 3.4% −24.50

NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 511 34 6.7% −255.00

Good to Firm 204 16 7.8% −69.50

Good 200 16 8% −12.12

Soft 115 8 7% +16.50

Good to Soft 80 4 5% −37.50

Heavy 50 2 4% −43.00

Firm 7 1 14.3% +1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 162 9 5.6% −80.50

Kempton (AW) 112 10 8.9% −36.33

Lingfield (AW) 104 8 7.7% −48.00

Yarmouth 76 7 9.2% −1.50

Southwell (AW) 58 1 1.7% −47.00

Chelmsford (AW) 43 3 7% −26.50

Brighton 40 6 15% +24.80

Lingfield 37 7 18.9% +46.50

Leicester 36 4 11.1% −10.12

Dundalk (AW) 31 3 9.7% −15.67

Nottingham 25 3 12% +5.50

Doncaster 22 1 4.5% −14.00

Newmarket 20 0 0% −20.00

Newmarket 18 0 0% −18.00

Limerick 18 1 5.6% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 446 41 9.2% −38.95

Class 5 346 21 6.1% −159.37

Class 4 119 7 5.9% −41.80

Class 3 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 7 8 1 12.5% −6.33

Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 64 17 26.6% 1.08 −7.70

2nd–3rd fav 176 26 14.8% 1.03 −30.92

4th–6th fav 327 21 6.4% 0.89 −118.00

7th+ in betting 600 17 2.8% 1.01 −243.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 447 40 8.9% −102.00

1m – 1m1f 218 10 4.6% −132.25

1m2f – 1m4f 172 6 3.5% −110.00

Under 6f 157 16 10.2% −15.45

1m5f – 2m 106 5 4.7% −16.00

2m1f – 2m4f 57 4 7% −13.92

2m5f – 3m 10 0 0% −10.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2009 75 4 5.3% −17.00

2010 154 18 11.7% +37.25

2011 149 8 5.4% −93.75

2012 72 3 4.2% −41.25

2013 18 2 11.1% −8.50

2014 71 8 11.3% −8.33

2015 85 9 10.6% −11.20

2016 60 3 5% +0.88

2017 83 6 7.2% −51.00

2018 53 1 1.9% −38.00

2019 33 0 0% −33.00

2020 38 0 0% −38.00

2021 43 7 16.3% +20.33

2022 2 0 0% −2.00

2023 4 0 0% −4.00

2024 78 3 3.8% −41.75

2025 100 5 5% −71.50

2026 49 4 8.2% +1.20

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 771 67 8.7% −161.75

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 379 31 8.2% −135.75

11-13 runners 378 26 6.9% −38.25

5-7 runners 180 12 6.7% −120.62

14-16 runners 172 10 5.8% −62.00

17+ runners 47 1 2.1% −36.00

2-4 runners 11 1 9.1% −7.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tevez (GB)from Amy Weaver 67 7 25 17 Nov 17

Weardiditallgorong (GB)then Pat Phelan 38 3 9 13 Nov 20

Sirjosh (GB) 34 2 5 22 May 11

Menelik (IRE)from Lee Carter 32 4 12 12 Oct 18

Cash In Mind (FR)from E J O'Neill · then John C McConnell 29 0 6 7 Aug 19

Ecliptic Sunrise (GB) 29 2 8 14 Sep 15

An Marcach (IRE)then Dr Richard Newland 27 1 8 6 Jan 22

Liberty Lady (IRE) 26 5 9 12 May 12

Dandyman Port (IRE)from E J O'Neill 24 1 3 23 Aug 19

Indus Valley (IRE)from Adrian McGuinness · then Daniel Steele 24 4 6 24 Jan 18

Moscow Oznick (GB)from Tom Dascombe 22 3 7 11 Feb 12

Daretobedifferent (IRE) 20 1 4 19 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 137 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J P Murtagh (3) and Amy Weaver (2); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard, most often for David Evans (2) and Ken Clutterbuck (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

51411956696638

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Probert

10% of all rides
11.8% SR · A/E 1.46

RiderRWSR£1

David Probert 119 14 11.8% −4.20

Andrea Atzeni 51 3 5.9% −16.50

Shane Kelly 43 7 16.3% −3.33

Cathy Gannon 36 5 13.9% +17.00

Martin Harley 35 2 5.7% −21.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

Archived wins

£485k

Prize money

2010

Best season · 18 wins

Severus (GER) — K Club Handicap Curragh · Jul 2017

£15,990

Dandyman Port (IRE) — Follow Tipperary On Facebook Handicap Tipperary · Aug 2018

£15,375

Severus (GER) — Racing Again June 23rd Handicap Limerick · Jun 2017

£7,084

Notable horses

Tevez (GB) Liberty Lady (IRE) Catherines Call (IRE) Menelik (IRE) Indus Valley (IRE) Weardiditallgorong (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sakhee (USA) 8.8% · 7–80

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.

Oasis Dream (GB) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,026 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Fast Company (IRE) 7.1% · 3–42

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,599 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Statue Of Liberty (USA) 14.6% · 6–41

Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (210 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.6% from 119.

Milan (GB) 2.6% · 1–39

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,867 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Starman (GB) 2.9% · 1–35

Progeny have won 11.9% of 1,155 runs since 2025 (188 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,167 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,167 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2009 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Ryan Kavanagh bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 66/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Mart (GB)J: Rob Hornby Racing Value At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 9th 18/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Virtual Rock (IRE)J: Adam Wedge Over The Rainbow Alison Stretton Birthday Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 6/4F

08 Oct 26 Bath Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 9th 50/1

22 Sep 26 Fontwell Virtual Rock (IRE)J: Shane Fenelon Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st 6/5F

15 Sep 26 Uttoxeter Virtual Rock (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Pip & Chris Emerald Wedding Anniversary Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 1st 33/1

12 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Mart (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 4/1J

10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Mart (GB)J: Rob Hornby Sid Sims, Explosive Staging & Events Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 18/1

10 Sep 26 Epsom Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Tom Queally Under Starters Orders For Fit Show 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 25/1

01 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Mart (GB)J: Ryan Kavanagh Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 5 ran 2nd 7/2

20 Aug 26 Newcastle (AW) Mart (GB)J: Luke Morris Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 33/1

11 Aug 26 Nottingham Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani Oddschecker Free Bets Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 9/1

07 Aug 26 Brighton Mart (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Bet In Over 200 Shops Nationwide With JenningsBet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 5/2F

02 Aug 26 Yarmouth Mart (GB)J: Ryan Kavanagh Price Bailey Llp Norwich "confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Won A Flat Race In 2026)Class 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 6/1

02 Aug 26 Yarmouth Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 9/2

26 Jul 26 Pontefract Miss Magic Dragon (GB)J: Clifford Lee Roy Winstanley Memorial Raising Encephalitis Awareness Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 14/1

13 Jul 26 Lingfield (AW) Taseem (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 200/1

10 Jul 26 Newmarket Daretobedifferent (IRE)J: Gina Mangan Jockey Club Estates HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 50/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Miss Magic Dragon (GB)J: Pat Cosgrave Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 40/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Dontwaryboutathing (IRE)J: Pat Cosgrave Book Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Classified StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 14 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 14 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Des Donovan's strike rate?: Des Donovan has won 81 of 1,167 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.9% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Des Donovan do best at?: Lingfield by strike rate: 7 wins from 37 runners (18.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Des Donovan?: David Probert, with 119 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (11.8%).
Is Des Donovan in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Des Donovan's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 1,160 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.