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Trainer profile

Ian Patrick Donoghue

701 runners in the lifetime window · 136 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 11.0% of 318 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 9 Nov 2026.
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
59–701
Wins / Runs
8.4%
Strike rate
n=701
160 (23%)
Placed
1.09
Fair A/E
n=701 · 0.87 incl. margin
−195.11
£1 level stake
n=701 at SP · −27.8%
£814k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 11% off breaks of two months or more (124 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 701 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 10.5% 25% when favourite Keith Donoghue: 7.2% from 97 Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (0% over 45 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.00). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 10.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.53 and +75.57 to a £1 stake over 124 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Keith Donoghue rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.2%, A/E 0.65). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 0% over 51 runners, 8.4pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: St Denis's Well (IRE) — 6 wins from 31 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.5%+2.1
n=124 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +75.57
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.8%−1.6
n=88 · A/E 0.98 · £1 +12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.4
n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.4%−6.0
n=41 · A/E 0.62 · £1 +0.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.5%+1.1
n=42 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −18.00
When favourite
25%
n=44 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −12.61
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%−0.4
n=289 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −46.22
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.4
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 23% vs 8.4% · n=61
With C&D winners 20% vs 8.4% · n=40
On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 8.4% · n=51
With Conor Stone-Walsh 16.2% vs 8.4% · n=68
With debutants 0% vs 8.4% · n=48
At Dundalk (AW) 0% vs 8.4% · n=45
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 79.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 351 29 8.3% −85.80
Flat 168 7 4.2% −104.62
Chase 152 21 13.8% +14.98
NH Flat 30 2 6.7% −19.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 230 17 7.4% −106.75
Soft 198 23 11.6% −35.11
Good to Soft 127 10 7.9% −64.75
Heavy 90 9 10% +67.50
Standard (AW) 51 0 0% −51.00
Good to Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick 81 10 12.3% −25.43
Fairyhouse 79 8 10.1% −32.80
Down Royal 51 8 15.7% +3.41
Dundalk (AW) 45 0 0% −45.00
Navan 44 4 9.1% +75.50
Punchestown 39 1 2.6% −29.00
Bellewstown 37 4 10.8% −13.75
Leopardstown 33 0 0% −33.00
Wexford 31 4 12.9% +6.25
Kilbeggan 29 1 3.4% −19.00
Gowran Park 22 2 9.1% −8.00
Roscommon 22 3 13.6% +16.00
Galway 22 0 0% −22.00
Limerick 20 1 5% −14.00
Sligo 20 1 5% −15.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 24 0 0% −24.00
Class 5 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 3 5 1 20% +16.00
Class 4 5 2 40% +5.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 65 17 26.2% 1.18 −6.11
2nd–3rd fav 112 19 17% 1.25 +2.00
4th–6th fav 204 16 7.8% 1.01 −72.00
7th+ in betting 320 7 2.2% 0.79 −119.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.9% completed · 503 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 152 80.3% 7 5 17 1 0
Hurdle 351 88.3% 6 2 32 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
St Denis's Well (IRE)from Andrew Lynch 31 6 10 1 Oct 26
Tankardstown Diva (IRE)then T Ellis 21 1 5 23 May 25
Sea Of Doubt (IRE)from Barry J Fitzgerald 20 2 8 5 Oct 26
Colugo (IRE)from James M Barrett 17 0 4 9 Oct 26
Parkgarve (IRE) 17 1 4 21 Aug 26
Lisnamult Lad (IRE)from John C McConnell 17 1 4 10 Jul 26
Portarlington (IRE)from David Kenneth Budds 17 4 4 5 Jun 26
Attitash (IRE)from Jennifer Monaghan 17 0 2 24 Jul 24
Bucaneer's Spirit (IRE)from Jack W Davison 16 1 6 18 Aug 26
Vikki Wall (IRE)from Gavin Cromwell 15 1 1 13 Jul 24
Vaureal (FR)from Colin Bowe 14 2 5 1 Oct 26
Hitthehayson (IRE)from P J Rothwell 13 4 7 4 Jul 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 136 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 40 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gavin Cromwell (3) and Gordon Elliott (3); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
90111555613481311
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKeith Donoghue
14% of all rides
7.2% SR · A/E 0.65
RiderRWSR£1
Keith Donoghue 97 7 7.2% −46.50
Caragh Monaghan 75 3 4% −25.50
Conor Stone-Walsh 68 11 16.2% −13.93
James Smith 49 6 12.2% +50.50
Mr J Dunne 39 3 7.7% −20.67
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
59
Archived wins
£814k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 22 wins
Dunboyne (IRE) — Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase Downpatrick · Mar 2025
£29,500
True Testimony (IRE) — Race And Stay Irish EBF Mares Handicap Chase Fairyhouse · Nov 2025
£17,700
Tellthemi'mhere (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap Sligo · Apr 2023
£15,340
Notable horses
St Denis's Well (IRE) Small Town Hero (IRE) Portarlington (IRE) Hitthehayson (IRE) Midleton Rare (IRE) Sea Of Doubt (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Jukebox Jury (IRE) 13.9% · 5–36
Progeny have won 13.6% of 2,255 runs since 2016 (256 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 5.6% · 2–36
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,063 runs since 2011 (709 horses).
Famous Name (GB) 19.4% · 6–31
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,512 runs since 2016 (102 horses).
Court Cave (IRE) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,962 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Affinisea (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,296 runs since 2022 (207 horses).
Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,890 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 701 · newest first

The latest 50 of 701 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2021 to 8 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Bride Of Arainn (IRE)J: Mr J Dunne Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 3rd 4/1
07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Break My Soul (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Noreside Catering Handicap Steeplechase16f · Good · 7 ran 5th 3/1J
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) La Rocca Lass (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 5th 8/1
30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Court Canyon (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 6th 15/2
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Misterous Flechois (FR)J: Kieren Buckley Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 200/1
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Land Of Punt (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Download The Tote App Handicap Hurdle17f · Soft · 13 ran PU 5/1
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Pat's Legacy (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon William Hill Challenge Series Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 20/1
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Beggars Rock (IRE)J: Mr J Dunne Chapel Down Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 25f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 33/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Misterous Flechois (FR)J: Keith Donoghue Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 14th 150/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Thats It Ruby (IRE)J: James Smith Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 9th 125/1
10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Wee Fallon (IRE)J: James Smith Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 12th 28/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Colugo (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 12/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Profit Surge (IRE)J: James Ryan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 66/1
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Mobile Mamma (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good · 14 ran 5th 13/2
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Thats It Ruby (IRE)J: James Smith Randox Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 100/1
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Thats It Ruby (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 28/1
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Everyday Life (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 5th 6/1
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Sea Of Doubt (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 12th 4/1F
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Thelittleballerina (IRE)J: Mr J Dunne Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 5/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Land Of Punt (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran 8th 100/30F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ian Patrick Donoghue's strike rate?
Ian Patrick Donoghue has won 59 of 701 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ian Patrick Donoghue do best at?
Down Royal by strike rate: 8 wins from 51 runners (15.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ian Patrick Donoghue?
Keith Donoghue, with 97 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (7.2%).
Is Ian Patrick Donoghue in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ian Patrick Donoghue's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 701 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).