Skip to content
Trainer profile

John Nallen

342 runners in the lifetime window · 54 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 8 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
36–342
Wins / Runs
10.5%
Strike rate
n=342
128 (37%)
Placed
0.98
Fair A/E
n=341 · 0.78 incl. margin
−65.12
£1 level stake
n=342 at SP · −19.0%
£534k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13.6%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).

Deterministic profile computed from 342 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep 33.3% when favourite Sean D Bowen: 7.8% from 77 Sends off the favourite in 10% of races
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (2.2% over 45 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Sean D Bowen rides 23% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (7.8% vs 10.5%, A/E 0.84). The yard also reads well on Good going (16%, n=81) and off a 15-30-day break (14.6%, n=96). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 2.2% over 45 runners, 8.3pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes at Listowel (Sep 2025, £26,550). The stable star of the record: Cristal Clere (IRE) — 5 wins from 43 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.9%−2.6
n=63 · A/E 0.87 · £1 +1.38
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+6.2
n=6 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
8.2%−2.3
n=49 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −26.70
First-time headgear · true-first definition
12.5%+2.0
n=8 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −6.10
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
18.2%+7.7
n=11 · A/E 2.07 · £1 +3.33
When favourite
33.3%
n=33 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −6.11
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.4%−0.1
n=183 · A/E 1.08 · £1 +12.34
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%−3.4
n=14 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −7.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Dundalk (AW) 2.2% vs 10.5% · n=45
On Standard (AW) going 2.2% vs 10.5% · n=45
With horses switching code 18% vs 10.5% · n=50
Over 6f – 7f 4.2% vs 10.5% · n=48
On Good going 16% vs 10.5% · n=81
Off a 15-30-day break 14.6% vs 10.5% · n=96
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 92.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 164 13 7.9% −3.17
Hurdle 112 13 11.6% −38.58
NH Flat 55 7 12.7% −23.99
Chase 11 3 27.3% +0.62

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 115 11 9.6% +8.84
Good 81 13 16% +4.39
Heavy 49 7 14.3% +0.75
Standard (AW) 45 1 2.2% −41.75
Good to Soft 33 2 6.1% −25.25
Good to Firm 18 2 11.1% −11.10
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 45 1 2.2% −41.75
Roscommon 29 4 13.8% −7.34
Listowel 28 4 14.3% −5.00
Gowran Park 25 3 12% +10.50
Cork 24 4 16.7% +8.68
Galway 18 3 16.7% +64.33
Killarney 17 1 5.9% −10.50
Tipperary 16 1 6.3% −12.75
Punchestown 13 0 0% −13.00
Curragh 13 1 7.7% −3.00
Navan 12 1 8.3% −10.10
Limerick 12 1 8.3% −9.90
Naas 11 1 9.1% −6.50
Fairyhouse 10 1 10% +1.00
Ballinrobe 10 2 20% −2.88

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 14 1 7.1% −7.50
Class 3 4 1 25% −2.71
Class 4 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 38 13 34.2% 1.13 −2.11
2nd–3rd fav 78 12 15.4% 0.94 −15.84
4th–6th fav 118 7 5.9% 0.76 −64.17
7th+ in betting 108 4 3.7% 1.21 +17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Cristal Clere (IRE) 43 5 17 1 Nov 26
Mercurial (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 38 1 16 1 Nov 26
Pinball Wizard (IRE)from Clive Cox · then John C McConnell 26 1 10 21 May 25
Firebrand (GER)then John Patrick Ryan 23 2 10 4 Oct 26
Minella Mate (IRE) 17 2 9 9 May 26
Minella For Value (IRE)then John Butler 16 5 11 5 Oct 13
Minella Tweet (IRE)then Paul Henderson 15 1 1 15 May 16
Minella Rockett (IRE) 12 3 7 30 Oct 26
Minella Hollow (IRE) 10 4 5 31 Oct 26
Minella Buoy (GB)then Gary Hanmer 9 0 4 20 Sep 26
Minella Reception (IRE)then Rebecca Curtis 9 1 4 31 Jul 13
Minella Special (IRE)then Paul Henderson 9 0 1 12 Aug 11
All 54 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 54 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Dascombe (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

35 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul Henderson (4) and Evan Williams (2); 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00018811101815977
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean D Bowen
23% of all rides
7.8% SR · A/E 0.84
RiderRWSR£1
Sean D Bowen 77 6 7.8% −26.50
Seamie Heffernan 34 2 5.9% −23.17
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
36
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£534k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cristal Clere (IRE) — Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) Listowel · Sep 2025 · Listed
£26,550
Minella Rockett (IRE) — Tote Every Day Is A Money-Back Day Handicap Galway (IRE) · Jul 2026
£15,601
Minella Rockett (IRE) — TRM BIOACTIVE Energy Boost Handicap Naas (IRE) · Aug 2026
£15,000
Notable horses
Cristal Clere (IRE) Minella For Value (IRE) Minella Hollow (IRE) Minella Rockett (IRE) Firebrand (GER) Minella Mate (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
King's Theatre (IRE) 10.5% · 6–57
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Harzand (IRE) 11.4% · 5–44
Progeny have won 13.4% of 1,108 runs since 2020 (141 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.1% from 126. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.8% from 250. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9% from 122.
Prince Of Lir (IRE) 2.6% · 1–38
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,388 runs since 2020 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.
Old Vic (GB) 16.1% · 5–31
Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).
Dark Angel (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Shantou (USA) 8.3% · 2–24
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,843 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 357 · newest first

The latest 50 of 357 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Cristal Clere (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 14th 33/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Mercurial (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 4th 8/1
31 Oct 26 Wetherby Minella Hollow (IRE)J: Harry Skelton 6 Horses Challenge At Bet365 Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 1st 2/7F
30 Oct 26 Wetherby Minella Rockett (IRE)J: Daniel King Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 15/8F
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Minella Rockett (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Roscommon Rated Race10.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/4J
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Mercurial (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Guinness Handicap7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 3rd 5/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Cristal Clere (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap9f · Yielding · 10 ran 8th 16/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Firebrand (GER)J: Alan O'Sullivan Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 2nd 100/30
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Minella Hollow (IRE)J: Daniel King BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 3rd 16/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Minella Hollow (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon14f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 6th 10/1
22 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Cristal Clere (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 25/1
22 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Mercurial (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap7f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 9/1
20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Minella Buoy (GB)J: Daniel King Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 15/8F
15 Sep 26 Punchestown (IRE) Minella Rockett (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Punchestown Premiere Weekend November 21st & 22nd Race9f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 5/4F
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Firebrand (GER)J: Alan O'Sullivan Kenny Developments Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 1st 100/30
31 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Minella Buoy (GB)J: W J Lee Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap12f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 10th 4/1J
31 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Mercurial (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Lidan Handicap7.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 11/1
23 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Minella Rockett (IRE)J: Reese Holohan TRM BIOACTIVE Energy Boost Handicap10.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 7/2J
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Minella Moon Shine (IRE)J: Daniel King ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 4th 100/30
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Minella Hollow (IRE)J: Daniel King ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div I)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 1st 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 1, 2 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1, 2 did not run) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Nallen's strike rate?
John Nallen has won 36 of 342 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Nallen do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 45 runners (2.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Nallen?
Sean D Bowen, with 77 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.8%).
Is John Nallen in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Nallen's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 341 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).