What is L J Morgan's strike rate?

L J Morgan has won 176 of 1,442 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does L J Morgan do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 12 wins from 49 runners (24.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for L J Morgan?

Adam Wedge, with 390 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (14.1%).

Is L J Morgan in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is L J Morgan's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 1,439 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

L J Morgan

1,442 runners in the lifetime window · 225 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

176–1,442

Wins / Runs

12.2%

Strike rate

n=1,442

359 (25%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=1,439 · 0.97 incl. margin

−167.70

£1 level stake

n=1,442 at SP · −11.6%

£1.66m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 80 runners a season, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). With a claiming rider up the record reads 14% (459 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,442 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 40.8% when favourite Adam Wedge: 14.1% from 390 Claiming riders: 13.7% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (24.5%, n=49) and Perth (22.2%, n=81) — all clear of the yard's 12.2% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 13.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.49 and +214.03 to a £1 stake over 459 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Adam Wedge rides 27% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14.1%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 0% over 47 runners, 12.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.50 across 61 runners (3.3% strike, −42.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Socialist Agenda (GB) — 7 wins from 34 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

11.5%−0.7

n=338 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +30.11

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.8%−4.4

n=129 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −11.44

Debutants · first career start

8.2%−4.0

n=98 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −24.90

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8%−4.2

n=100 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −20.46

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.7%−2.5

n=113 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −29.84

When favourite

40.8%

n=130 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +2.24

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.7%+1.5

n=459 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +214.03

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−12.2

n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 26.1% vs 12.2% · n=180

At Musselburgh 24.5% vs 12.2% · n=49

In Class 1 0% vs 12.2% · n=47

At Perth 22.2% vs 12.2% · n=81

In Group / Graded races 0% vs 12.2% · n=30

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 3.3% vs 12.2% · n=61

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 615 52 8.5% −192.55

Chase 576 100 17.4% +34.52

Flat 155 9 5.8% −5.76

NH Flat 96 15 15.6% −3.91

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 665 87 13.1% +3.78

Good to Soft 289 25 8.7% −162.01

Soft 266 39 14.7% −9.58

Standard (AW) 113 9 8% +34.90

Heavy 84 16 19% −9.79

Good to Firm 25 0 0% −25.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell 232 29 12.5% −104.83

Market Rasen 159 19 11.9% −59.39

Perth 81 18 22.2% +37.08

Sedgefield 59 7 11.9% +58.28

Fakenham 59 7 11.9% −4.45

Leicester 55 11 20% −8.48

Catterick 55 9 16.4% −13.45

Wetherby 53 7 13.2% +6.50

Musselburgh 49 12 24.5% +14.18

Worcester 41 4 9.8% +49.67

Uttoxeter 40 2 5% −32.12

Huntingdon 33 1 3% −4.00

Southwell (AW) 33 5 15.2% +87.37

Kelso 30 5 16.7% −1.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 29 0 0% −29.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 567 74 13.1% −45.90

Class 5 465 63 13.5% −34.91

Class 3 177 26 14.7% −53.13

Class 6 122 7 5.7% +7.24

Class 2 60 5 8.3% −5.00

Class 1 47 0 0% −47.00

Class 7 4 1 25% +11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 150 58 38.7% 1.13 +4.24

2nd–3rd fav 322 70 21.7% 1.23 +15.06

4th–6th fav 504 35 6.9% 0.94 −126.00

7th+ in betting 466 13 2.8% 0.86 −61.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.6% completed · 1,191 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 576 79.5% 15 13 87 1 2

Hurdle 615 85.5% 2 5 80 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Socialist Agenda (GB) 34 7 11 1 Feb 25

Percussion (GB) 29 3 12 3 Apr 25

Hasankey (IRE)from D K Weld 29 4 11 18 Oct 23

We Got Your Back (GB)from Miss Elizabeth Anne Lalor 28 3 9 9 May 26

The Vollan (IRE)from Charlie Longsdon 28 4 7 27 Feb 24

Ulis De Vassy (FR)from Dan Skelton 28 3 5 16 Dec 18

Haasab (IRE) 26 3 10 19 Mar 21

Clear The Runway (IRE) 24 7 8 23 Oct 24

Whistleinthedark (IRE)from Richard Hawker 23 6 8 23 Apr 26

Tardree (IRE) 23 6 13 21 Jun 24

Skipping On (IRE)from W J Burke 23 6 10 11 Mar 21

J'ai Froid (IRE)from Ben Case 22 7 9 13 Mar 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 225 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (3) and Charlie Longsdon (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1320131020111191071011

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAdam Wedge

27% of all rides
14.1% SR · A/E 1.06

RiderRWSR£1

Adam Wedge 390 55 14.1% −135.19

Patrick Cowley 128 23 18% +48.96

Brian Hughes 104 16 15.4% −14.22

Lewis Dobb 100 15 15% −19.55

Tabitha Worsley 64 6 9.4% +24.00

Richie McLernon 43 3 7% −32.90

Ross Chapman 41 4 9.8% −7.59

Danny McMenamin 41 8 19.5% +1.35

Harry Reed 40 4 10% +12.75

David Noonan 34 2 5.9% −24.50

John Kington 33 3 9.1% −12.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

176

Archived wins

£1.66m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 48 wins

J'ai Froid (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Warwick · Jan 2024 · Class 2

£15,609

Socialist Agenda (GB) — bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Feb 2022 · Class 2

£15,609

Go West Young Man (IRE) — Mackie's Summer Sundaes Handicap Chase Perth · Jul 2018 · Class 3

£13,126

Notable horses

Socialist Agenda (GB) Clear The Runway (IRE) Fire Away (IRE) J'ai Froid (IRE) Skipping On (IRE) Whistleinthedark (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Westerner (GB) 13.9% · 10–72

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,853 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Kayf Tara (GB) 15.7% · 11–70

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,754 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Mahler (GB) 14.5% · 10–69

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Sakhee (USA) 9.3% · 4–43

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.

Flemensfirth (USA) 28.6% · 12–42

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Malinas (GER) 14.6% · 6–41

Progeny have won 14.2% of 3,954 runs since 2010 (419 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,442 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,442 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 February 2010 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Cadillac Ranch (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Canine PREMIER FLEX Plus Joint Supplement Etc Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 4th 4/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Scoro (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Christmas Jumper Day Sunday 13th December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 25/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Treshnish Point (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Winter Ladies Night Saturday 27th November 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 10th 500/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Chasing Dawn (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 11th 50/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Ballyearl (FR)J: Alice Stevens Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 5 ran PU 20/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Abu Royal (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 66/1

24 Oct 26 Kelso The Other Mozzie (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin luckytiger.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Nuts Well Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 4 ran 4th 7/1

24 Oct 26 Kelso Achille Des Rocs (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Myles Mcnulty You'Re Never Sixty Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North One Man Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 6/4F

24 Oct 26 Kelso Treshnish Point (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Stay For The After Party 'national Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 66/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Cadillac Ranch (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Vickers Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

17 Oct 26 Stratford Ballyearl (FR)J: Alice Stevens Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 50/1

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Abu Royal (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Moulton Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 8/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Achille Des Rocs (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Blaydon Races Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North One Man Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 100/30

07 Oct 26 Sedgefield Cadillac Ranch (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 18/1

16 Sep 26 Beverley Abu Royal (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Hurn Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 5/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Scoro (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran PU 10/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Achille Des Rocs (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Bill & Teresa Florentines 50th Anniversary Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 100/30

08 Sep 26 Bangor-on-Dee Cadillac Ranch (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 28/1

31 Aug 26 Cartmel Achille Des Rocs (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Furness Rda Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 6/1

31 Aug 26 Cartmel Ballyearl (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Campbell & Rowley Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is L J Morgan's strike rate?: L J Morgan has won 176 of 1,442 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does L J Morgan do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 12 wins from 49 runners (24.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for L J Morgan?: Adam Wedge, with 390 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (14.1%).
Is L J Morgan in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is L J Morgan's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 1,439 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.