What is Gay Kelleway's strike rate?

Gay Kelleway has won 367 of 4,033 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Gay Kelleway do best at?

Bath by strike rate: 9 wins from 66 runners (13.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Gay Kelleway?

Luke Morris, with 412 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 40 (9.7%).

Is Gay Kelleway in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Gay Kelleway's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 3,996 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Gay Kelleway

4,033 runners in the lifetime window · 383 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 7 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

367–4,033

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=4,033

1,043 (26%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=3,996 · 0.81 incl. margin

−1,003.38

£1 level stake

n=4,031 at SP · −24.9%

£2.87m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 210 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). New recruits from other yards win at 11% first time out (161 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,033 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 30.4% when favourite Luke Morris: 9.7% from 412 New recruits: 10.6% Claiming riders: 9.8% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Ascot (0% over 65 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.3% (n=86, Fair A/E 0.56). Debutants are the standout value angle: 7.3% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.62 and +95.33 to a £1 stake over 206 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −286.83 to a £1 stake over 495 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Luke Morris rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.7%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.9% over 104 runners, 7.2pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Unibet 3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield (AW) (Apr 2015, £93,375). The stable star of the record: Mukha Magic (GB) — 12 wins from 74 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.8%−4.3

n=495 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −286.83

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.6%+1.5

n=161 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −44.25

Debutants · first career start

7.3%−1.8

n=206 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +95.33

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.7%−0.4

n=196 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +18.05

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.1%+1.0

n=199 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −23.29

When favourite

30.4%

n=250 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −38.01

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.8%+0.7

n=1,206 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −220.85

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.3%−6.8

n=86 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −71.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 16% vs 9.1% · n=394

With George Baker 19.5% vs 9.1% · n=41

At Ascot 0% vs 9.1% · n=65

With Hollie Doyle 18.6% vs 9.1% · n=43

Off a break of 180+ days 1.9% vs 9.1% · n=104

At Goodwood 0% vs 9.1% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,982 366 9.2% −978.38

Hurdle 34 1 2.9% −8.00

NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Chase 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,184 230 10.5% −307.01

Good to Firm 689 57 8.3% −221.88

Good 463 31 6.7% −244.80

Good to Soft 303 23 7.6% −124.59

Soft 271 13 4.8% −127.35

Heavy 72 8 11.1% +40.50

Firm 51 5 9.8% −18.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 543 59 10.9% −6.08

Lingfield (AW) 430 45 10.5% −86.06

Southwell (AW) 412 52 12.6% −38.22

Kempton (AW) 353 32 9.1% −83.45

Yarmouth 266 33 12.4% −38.73

Chelmsford (AW) 260 22 8.5% −102.05

Brighton 229 22 9.6% −66.40

Newmarket 120 4 3.3% −60.25

Leicester 112 10 8.9% −47.46

Newcastle (AW) 111 13 11.7% −8.85

Newmarket 98 4 4.1% −35.50

Windsor 83 4 4.8% −54.25

Lingfield 78 4 5.1% −49.00

Bath 66 9 13.6% −10.42

Ascot 65 0 0% −65.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,426 170 11.9% −64.71

Class 5 1,345 124 9.2% −404.39

Class 4 608 36 5.9% −307.51

Class 3 230 17 7.4% −101.37

Class 2 191 8 4.2% −17.00

Class 1 86 2 2.3% −71.00

Class 7 24 2 8.3% −15.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 307 92 30% 1.05 −33.01

2nd–3rd fav 849 133 15.7% 0.97 −110.07

4th–6th fav 1,531 103 6.7% 0.87 −363.90

7th+ in betting 1,344 39 2.9% 0.85 −496.40

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,440 122 8.5% −383.93

1m2f – 1m4f 894 92 10.3% −135.49

1m – 1m1f 885 75 8.5% −312.30

Under 6f 496 54 10.9% −62.48

1m5f – 2m 283 23 8.1% −81.18

2m1f – 2m4f 26 1 3.8% −19.00

2m5f – 3m 8 0 0% −8.00

Over 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 391 48 12.3% −114.85

2009 315 24 7.6% −156.37

2010 184 21 11.4% −1.57

2011 212 17 8% −91.26

2012 240 14 5.8% −103.63

2013 153 22 14.4% +24.19

2014 183 17 9.3% −34.90

2015 210 16 7.6% −55.63

2016 245 24 9.8% −41.81

2017 262 15 5.7% −114.59

2018 286 28 9.8% −10.47

2019 215 13 6% −131.53

2020 225 24 10.7% −7.35

2021 216 13 6% −74.81

2022 199 24 12.1% +11.40

2023 192 20 10.4% −59.12

2024 157 14 8.9% −6.58

2025 81 8 9.9% +3.50

2026 67 5 7.5% −38.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,705 232 8.6% −900.67

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,437 139 9.7% −329.83

11-13 runners 1,081 71 6.6% −219.97

5-7 runners 998 120 12% −177.64

14-16 runners 335 16 4.8% −216.20

2-4 runners 99 20 20.2% −10.74

17+ runners 83 1 1.2% −49.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Moveonup (IRE) 76 6 15 18 Jan 24

Layline (IRE)from Marco Botti 76 9 21 5 Sep 15

Mukha Magic (GB) 74 12 23 5 Dec 23

Stosur (IRE) 73 5 20 25 Jan 19

Eastern Gift (GB)from Richard Hannon Snr 59 3 23 13 Jan 12

Ubla (IRE)from Hugo Palmer 55 8 14 2 Sep 20

Uphold (GB)from Jamie Osborne 54 4 13 26 Jun 17

Scale Force (GB) 50 4 15 14 Aug 22

Cosmelli (ITY) 46 4 11 26 Jun 21

Hawaana (IRE)from Eve Johnson Houghton 46 4 17 12 Dec 12

Swing Alone (IRE) 44 4 15 17 Aug 15

Yeah Baby Yeah (IRE) 42 4 14 28 Jul 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 383 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 18 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Eve Johnson Houghton (2) and Marco Botti (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Jim & Suzi Best (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

13121291078117769

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLuke Morris

10% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 0.97

RiderRWSR£1

Luke Morris 412 40 9.7% −118.98

David Probert 170 17 10% −30.88

Robert Winston 96 11 11.5% +2.25

Daniel Muscutt 91 12 13.2% +41.17

Neil Callan 91 14 15.4% +4.83

Kylie Manser 83 2 2.4% −73.00

Hayley Turner 78 10 12.8% +28.23

George Rooke 75 12 16% +24.89

Micky Fenton 73 10 13.7% +4.25

Shane Kelly 70 3 4.3% −50.50

Robert Havlin 61 3 4.9% −31.50

Adam Beschizza 60 8 13.3% +18.45

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

435

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.43m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 48 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lightscameraction (IRE) — Unibet 3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes Lingfield (AW) · Apr 2015 · Class 2

£93,375

Cosmelli (ITY) — Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for The Northumberland Plate) Newcastle (AW) · Jun 2018 · Class 2

£46,688

Vortex (GB) — Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Jun 2005 · Group 3

£29,000

Notable horses

Mukha Magic (GB) Layline (IRE) Ubla (IRE) Boundless Prospect (USA) Court Drive (IRE) Bienheureux (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Phoenix Reach (IRE) 5.2% · 9–173

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,950 runs since 2010 (140 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 178. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.1% from 257.

Zebedee (GB) 7.8% · 10–129

Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2014 (435 horses).

Mayson (GB) 11.9% · 13–109

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,396 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Oasis Dream (GB) 7.5% · 8–106

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,045 runs since 2008 (1,507 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

King's Best (USA) 10.2% · 10–98

Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.

Pastoral Pursuits (GB) 10.2% · 9–88

Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,220 runs since 2009 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,837 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,837 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Court Drive (IRE)J: Robert Havlin Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 33/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Miss Mambo (IRE)J: Sean Kirrane Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 50/1

04 Nov 26 Musselburgh India Gold (IRE)J: Shane Gray Thank You For The Fun Gweedore Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 22/1

04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Off Spin (IRE)J: David Allan Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 9/2

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) King David (IRE)J: Clifford Lee AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 5/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket India Gold (IRE)J: Clifford Lee German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 11th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Miss Mambo (IRE)J: Jack Callan Fireworks Festival Here Saturday 7th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 33/1

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Court Drive (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Infobond Turnkey & Personnel Services Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 15/2

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth India Gold (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Seadell Shops & Holiday Chalets Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 12/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Als Dawn (GB)J: Tyler Heard Each Way Extra At bet365 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 6th 250/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Miss Mambo (IRE)J: Benoit de la Sayette Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 10th 12/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Court Drive (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Mj Church Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 6/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Als Dawn (GB)J: Tyler Heard Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 12th 400/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Faster Love (GB)J: Jack Mitchell EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 7th 100/1

06 Oct 26 Brighton King David (IRE)J: Charles Bishop Matchbook Monthly Bet- Builder Rebate Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 9/1

28 Sep 26 Brighton King David (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Play Your Multiples At matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 11/2

24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Court Drive (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 5/1

16 Sep 26 Yarmouth Court Drive (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Eastern Power Systems Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 3/1F

07 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Miss Mambo (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 5/2F

01 Sep 26 Brighton King David (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Download The Matchbook App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 2/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 8 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Gay Kelleway's strike rate?: Gay Kelleway has won 367 of 4,033 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Gay Kelleway do best at?: Bath by strike rate: 9 wins from 66 runners (13.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Gay Kelleway?: Luke Morris, with 412 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 40 (9.7%).
Is Gay Kelleway in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Gay Kelleway's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 3,996 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.