What is Noel Wilson's strike rate?

Noel Wilson has won 127 of 1,872 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Noel Wilson do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 28 wins from 248 runners (11.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Noel Wilson?

Barry McHugh, with 141 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5.7%).

What is Noel Wilson's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 1,863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Noel Wilson

1,872 runners in the lifetime window · 209 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 101 days ago 92% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

127–1,872

Wins / Runs

6.8%

Strike rate

n=1,872

369 (20%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=1,863 · 0.82 incl. margin

−578.09

£1 level stake

n=1,872 at SP · −30.9%

£754k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

2.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,872 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 18.8% when favourite Barry McHugh: 5.7% from 141 Claiming riders: 8.1% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (11.3%, n=248), clear of the yard's 6.8% baseline. It is weakest at Haydock (0% over 32 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.8% (n=289, Fair A/E 0.56). The market has consistently overbet new recruits from other stables on their first run: 2.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.46 and −67.00 to a £1 stake over 103 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Barry McHugh rides 8% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.7%, A/E 0.83). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14.1%, n=156). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1.9% over 155 runners, 4.9pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Hotham (GB) — 11 wins from 92 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.8%−4.0

n=289 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −224.90

New recruits · first run for the yard

2.9%−3.9

n=103 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −67.00

Debutants · first career start

3.6%−3.2

n=84 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −27.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.2%−2.6

n=71 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −51.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.2%−1.6

n=96 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −51.00

When favourite

18.8%

n=85 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −32.30

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.1%+1.3

n=669 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −79.05

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.8

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ashley Hamblett 18.6% vs 6.8% · n=59

With Lee Enstone 18.4% vs 6.8% · n=38

Off a 0-7-day break 14.1% vs 6.8% · n=156

At Musselburgh 11.3% vs 6.8% · n=248

Off a 61-180-day break 1.9% vs 6.8% · n=155

At Haydock 0% vs 6.8% · n=32

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,717 118 6.9% −530.09

Hurdle 113 5 4.4% −71.50

NH Flat 23 3 13% +34.00

Chase 19 1 5.3% −10.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 548 39 7.1% −165.42

Good to Firm 512 39 7.6% −97.30

Standard (AW) 368 26 7.1% −163.30

Good to Soft 253 13 5.1% −56.17

Soft 155 6 3.9% −90.00

Heavy 31 2 6.5% −15.00

Firm 5 2 40% +9.10

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Musselburgh 248 28 11.3% +4.85

Ayr 156 11 7.1% −92.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 155 8 5.2% −103.17

Catterick 153 13 8.5% −10.00

Thirsk 126 6 4.8% +34.00

Southwell (AW) 119 13 10.9% +0.37

Redcar 116 4 3.4% −95.30

Ripon 102 5 4.9% −77.84

Beverley 78 6 7.7% +5.75

Hamilton 72 4 5.6% −37.00

Newcastle 70 4 5.7% −22.00

Newcastle (AW) 66 2 3% −47.00

York 60 4 6.7% +13.00

Doncaster 56 2 3.6% −30.00

Pontefract 36 2 5.6% −27.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 745 66 8.9% −131.89

Class 5 592 29 4.9% −246.70

Class 4 345 20 5.8% −164.00

Class 3 100 5 5% −20.50

Class 2 69 5 7.2% −1.50

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 7 8 2 25% −0.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 108 21 19.4% 0.75 −37.08

2nd–3rd fav 242 40 16.5% 1.09 −19.01

4th–6th fav 538 44 8.2% 1.08 −53.00

7th+ in betting 984 22 2.2% 0.78 −469.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

Under 6f 654 67 10.2% −2.32

6f – 7f 608 23 3.8% −419.84

1m – 1m1f 201 12 6% −101.65

1m2f – 1m4f 199 14 7% +47.72

1m5f – 2m 123 8 6.5% −40.50

2m1f – 2m4f 44 1 2.3% −35.50

2m5f – 3m 35 2 5.7% −18.00

Over 3m 8 0 0% −8.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 216 24 11.1% −37.50

2009 241 18 7.5% −99.65

2010 231 14 6.1% −71.75

2011 194 18 9.3% +20.00

2012 159 11 6.9% −68.63

2013 102 5 4.9% −49.15

2014 68 5 7.4% +15.33

2015 102 2 2% −89.67

2016 103 3 2.9% −77.00

2017 133 15 11.3% +123.85

2018 125 10 8% −53.92

2019 111 1 0.9% −105.00

2024 1 0 0% −1.00

2025 50 0 0% −50.00

2026 36 1 2.8% −34.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,338 104 7.8% −346.87

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 649 55 8.5% −182.57

11-13 runners 604 27 4.5% −317.92

14-16 runners 248 18 7.3% +21.00

5-7 runners 237 24 10.1% −14.22

17+ runners 112 2 1.8% −65.00

2-4 runners 22 1 4.5% −19.38

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hotham (GB)from Henry Candy 68 8 23 19 May 12

Pavers Star (GB) 62 5 15 8 Oct 16

Kinloch Pride (GB) 43 6 16 11 May 19

Red Skipper (IRE)then John Price 43 3 15 13 Jan 12

Demolition (GB)from C A Cyzer 40 7 17 25 Sep 13

Our Place In Loule (GB) 38 5 13 14 Oct 19

Ridley Didley (IRE) 38 5 15 26 Oct 11

Pavershooz (GB) 35 5 13 20 Aug 12

Ingleby Star (IRE)from David Barron · then Ian McInnes 35 6 13 16 Apr 11

Stolt (IRE)then Linda Stubbs 35 3 7 22 Oct 10

Longroom (GB)from Mme Christiane Head · then Paul Midgley 34 6 11 16 Nov 19

Ghostly Arc (IRE) 29 2 9 16 Jul 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 209 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Ryan (3) and David Barron (2); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul Midgley (2) and Philip Kirby (2); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131087778564411

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBarry McHugh

8% of all rides
5.7% SR · A/E 0.83

RiderRWSR£1

Barry McHugh 141 8 5.7% −59.50

Duran Fentiman 129 7 5.4% −52.00

Phil Dennis 95 9 9.5% −40.65

Gary Bartley 78 9 11.5% +6.50

Daniel Tudhope 69 5 7.2% −36.25

Ashley Hamblett 59 11 18.6% +23.50

Joey Haynes 58 4 6.9% −9.57

Neil Farley 56 5 8.9% −10.00

Paddy Mathers 51 2 3.9% +51.00

Wilson Renwick 42 2 4.8% −23.50

Tony Hamilton 38 1 2.6% −32.00

Lee Enstone 38 7 18.4% +9.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

167

Archived wins

£1.01m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 24 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Pavershooz (GB) — Giles Insurance Heritage Handicap Ayr · Jul 2009 · Class 2

£25,904

Pavershooz (GB) — Tote Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Heritage Handicap Musselburgh · Jun 2009 · Class 2

£24,924

Nanton (USA) — John Smith's Straight-Mile Championship Final (Handicap) Redcar · Sep 2006 · Class 2

£18,696

Notable horses

Hotham (GB) Dodaa (USA) Demolition (GB) Kinloch Pride (GB) Ingleby Star (IRE) Longroom (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 7.6% · 11–145

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Kyllachy (GB) 10.1% · 9–89

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Tagula (IRE) 10.4% · 8–77

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,561 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.

Komaite (USA) 11.8% · 8–68

Progeny have won 10.1% of 447 runs since 2008 (27 horses).

Pastoral Pursuits (GB) 8.1% · 5–62

Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,219 runs since 2009 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.

Captain Rio (GB) 5.8% · 3–52

Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,515 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,515 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 28 July 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Jul 26 Beverley Walk On Walk On (IRE)J: Ethan Tindall Hoof Hustle Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 12/1

25 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Breeze Star (IRE)J: Alex Jary Jimmy Tindall Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 50/1

25 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Ellie's De Vega (GB)J: Billy Garritty Jimmy Tindall Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 5/2F

19 Jul 26 Redcar Bobbys Pride (IRE)J: Ethan Tindall Try Racing TV For Free Now Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 100/1

17 Jul 26 Hamilton Brandenburg (GB)J: David Egan Hamish MacGregor Memorial Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 1st 1/1F

16 Jul 26 Thirsk Queenies Pal (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Don't Miss Summer Family Days @thirskraces Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 13th 80/1

15 Jul 26 Catterick Quercus (IRE)J: Shane Gray Le Veinard 2026. Racing And Info Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 40/1

06 Jul 26 Ayr Ellie's De Vega (GB)J: Ryan Sexton 25% Off Lunch At Western House Hotel HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 5th 4/1C

05 Jul 26 Ayr Bobbys Pride (IRE)J: William Pyle Sunday Roast At westernhousehotel Available Now HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 11 ran 10th 100/1

04 Jul 26 Beverley Walk On Walk On (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton Happy Birthday Roy Archer HandicapClass 6 · 7.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 2nd 10/1

27 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Skinny Malinka (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton Pertemps Network Educational HandicapClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 11th 80/1

20 Jun 26 Doncaster Master Richard (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Free Tips On attheraces.com HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 3rd 16/1

20 Jun 26 Ayr Ellie's De Vega (GB)J: Barry McHugh Talk To Thompsons HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 10/3

20 Jun 26 Ayr Queenies Pal (GB)J: Mark Winn Dalcon Civil Engineering Classified StakesClass 6 · 7f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 33/1

19 Jun 26 Ayr Walk On Walk On (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton Outcider HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 40/1

19 Jun 26 Ayr Alpha Platoon (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton Magners Original Cider Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 50/1

11 Jun 26 Catterick Alpha Platoon (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 125/1

08 Jun 26 Carlisle Skinny Malinka (IRE)J: Jamie Gormley Follow Racing TV On X HandicapClass 5 · 9f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 80/1

08 Jun 26 Carlisle Breeze Star (IRE)J: Jamie Gormley Watch Racing TV Live HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 25/1

05 Jun 26 Musselburgh Bobbys Pride (IRE)J: Jamie Gormley Travis Perkins Scotland HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 6 ran 5th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel Wilson's strike rate?: Noel Wilson has won 127 of 1,872 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel Wilson do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 28 wins from 248 runners (11.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Noel Wilson?: Barry McHugh, with 141 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5.7%).
What is Noel Wilson's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 1,863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.