What is Roy Brotherton's strike rate?

Roy Brotherton has won 65 of 1,066 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Roy Brotherton do best at?

Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 77 runners (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Roy Brotherton?

Tom Eaves, with 149 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.1%).

What is Roy Brotherton's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 1,059 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Roy Brotherton

1,066 runners in the lifetime window · 104 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Mar 2023

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

65–1,066

Wins / Runs

6.1%

Strike rate

n=1,066

203 (19%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=1,059 · 0.80 incl. margin

−473.85

£1 level stake

n=1,066 at SP · −44.5%

£295k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 9% (35 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,066 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct 47.2% when favourite Tom Eaves: 8.1% from 149 Headgear returns: 8.6% Sends off the favourite in 3% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=43, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.28 and −167.50 to a £1 stake over 190 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tom Eaves rides 14% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.1% vs 6.1%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (19.5%, n=41) and off a 8-14-day break (10.6%, n=170). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 59 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: War of The Roses (IRE) — 10 wins from 51 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

1.1%−5.0

n=190 · A/E 0.28 · £1 −167.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

1.9%−4.2

n=53 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −48.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−6.1

n=43 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −43.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.1%+0.0

n=33 · A/E 1.87 · £1 −9.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.6%+2.5

n=35 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +52.00

When favourite

47.2%

n=36 · A/E 1.72 · £1 +16.65

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.7%−0.4

n=351 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −159.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.1

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 19.5% vs 6.1% · n=41

On last-time-out winners 17.4% vs 6.1% · n=69

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.1% · n=59

With horses switching code 0% vs 6.1% · n=49

With Jack Mitchell 12.9% vs 6.1% · n=31

Off a 8-14-day break 10.6% vs 6.1% · n=170

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 812 57 7% −344.85

Hurdle 154 3 1.9% −127.50

Chase 77 5 6.5% +21.50

NH Flat 23 0 0% −23.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 521 38 7.3% −201.32

Good 209 7 3.3% −96.75

Good to Firm 120 9 7.5% −34.38

Soft 73 4 5.5% −52.40

Good to Soft 69 1 1.4% −65.00

Firm 46 5 10.9% +1.00

Heavy 28 1 3.6% −25.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 300 20 6.7% −101.53

Southwell (AW) 135 11 8.1% −71.67

Bath 77 7 9.1% −14.75

Chepstow 70 1 1.4% −64.00

Kempton (AW) 59 3 5.1% −38.12

Warwick 55 1 1.8% −50.50

Worcester 42 1 2.4% −29.00

Uttoxeter 35 0 0% −35.00

Stratford 34 1 2.9% −27.00

Leicester 28 0 0% −28.00

Lingfield (AW) 26 4 15.4% +11.00

Windsor 20 1 5% −17.90

Nottingham 19 3 15.8% +16.12

Southwell 17 2 11.8% +2.50

Lingfield 15 3 20% −3.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 482 36 7.5% −167.30

Class 5 385 20 5.2% −251.37

Class 4 143 5 3.5% −42.90

Class 7 25 3 12% +13.72

Class 3 24 1 4.2% −19.00

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 51 23 45.1% 1.77 +30.15

2nd–3rd fav 138 17 12.3% 0.85 −43.00

4th–6th fav 279 14 5% 0.70 −145.00

7th+ in betting 598 11 1.8% 0.70 −316.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 245 13 5.3% −53.75

Under 6f 199 17 8.5% −114.18

1m2f – 1m4f 192 15 7.8% −71.42

1m5f – 2m 178 10 5.6% −110.50

1m – 1m1f 129 5 3.9% −101.50

2m1f – 2m4f 86 3 3.5% +1.00

2m5f – 3m 33 1 3% −24.50

Over 3m 4 1 25% +1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 114 7 6.1% −65.50

2009 86 7 8.1% −41.00

2010 78 8 10.3% −38.75

2011 94 8 8.5% −46.05

2012 101 7 6.9% −32.15

2013 85 3 3.5% −60.00

2014 72 6 8.3% −18.78

2015 83 4 4.8% −29.50

2016 86 4 4.7% −35.12

2017 66 4 6.1% −22.00

2018 56 4 7.1% +44.00

2019 70 2 2.9% −57.50

2020 30 0 0% −30.00

2021 24 1 4.2% −20.50

2022 19 0 0% −19.00

2023 2 0 0% −2.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 808 58 7.2% −285.60

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 417 24 5.8% −188.92

8-10 runners 359 23 6.4% −94.63

5-7 runners 146 16 11% −60.80

14-16 runners 116 1 0.9% −108.00

17+ runners 18 0 0% −18.00

2-4 runners 10 1 10% −3.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Cape of Storms (GB)from Mick Channon 54 7 17 28 Jan 13

Filament Of Gold (USA)from Mark Johnston 50 5 16 28 Sep 20

Miracle Garden (GB) 48 5 12 9 May 22

West Coast Dream (GB)from A Oliver 42 3 7 19 Jan 15

Jackie Kiely (GB)from Stef Higgins 41 3 16 15 Nov 11

War of The Roses (IRE) 37 6 14 12 Apr 12

Deise Vu (IRE)from Vincent Laurence Halley 36 4 14 27 Jul 21

Crimson Queen (GB) 35 7 10 4 Sep 13

Love In The Park (GB) 34 4 11 27 Jan 12

Ladydolly (GB) 29 1 8 12 Jan 15

Mamnoon (IRE) 28 1 4 15 Sep 19

Kaaber (USA)then Michael Blake 28 2 5 26 Jun 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Fabre (2) and Hughie Morrison (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Alan Phillips (2); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

4129564479934

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Eaves

14% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 1.26

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Eaves 149 12 8.1% −34.25

David Noonan 50 1 2% −45.00

Paul Mulrennan 49 2 4.1% −38.00

Eoin Walsh 35 2 5.7% −7.00

Mark Coumbe 31 2 6.5% −10.00

Jack Mitchell 31 4 12.9% −10.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£431k

Prize money

2005

Best season · 10 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Savile's Delight (IRE) — Gallagher Handicap Windsor · Jun 2005 · Class 4

£7,027

Magic Glade (GB) — Aktiv Kapital UK Ltd Handicap Chester · Jun 2006 · Class 4

£6,153

Phone In (GB) — totesuper7 Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Oct 2008 · Class 3

£5,139

Notable horses

War of The Roses (IRE) Cape of Storms (GB) Crimson Queen (GB) Jackie Kiely (GB) Blakeshall Quest (GB) Filament Of Gold (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cape Cross (IRE) 9.8% · 8–82

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Red Ransom (USA) 12.5% · 7–56

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,290 runs since 2008 (303 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 13% from 687.

Street Cry (IRE) 10% · 5–50

Progeny have won 12.7% of 4,258 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 1,577. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 131.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 10.4% · 5–48

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,039 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Oasis Dream (GB) 6.3% · 3–48

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,050 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Pivotal (GB) 8.3% · 4–48

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,790 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,535 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,535 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 30 March 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Mar 23 Warwick Dun Bay Creek (GB)J: Ben Poste Watch On Racing TV Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran PU 125/1

26 Feb 23 Hereford Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Richard Patrick Best Odds Guaranteed At Vickers.Bet Everyday Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 4th 6/1

03 Aug 22 Yarmouth Christopher Robin (IRE)J: Mr Harry Phipps Cazoo Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Good · 7 ran 7th 66/1

11 Jul 22 Wolverhampton (AW) Christopher Robin (IRE)J: Mr Harry Phipps Sky Sports Racing Hd Virgin 535 Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1

10 Jul 22 Stratford Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Lilly Pinchin Cotswold Larder Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 9/1

06 Jul 22 Bath Lanzarote Sunshine (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Follow At The Races On Twitter Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 6 ran 6th 150/1

17 Jun 22 Market Rasen Christopher Robin (IRE)J: Lilly Pinchin ABP Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 12/1

14 Jun 22 Stratford Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Lilly Pinchin racingtv/freetrial Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 20/1

11 Jun 22 Worcester Dun Bay Creek (GB)J: Ben Poste Amodil Supplies Ltd Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 50/1

25 May 22 Warwick Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Ainscough Strategic Land Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 4th 9/4

25 May 22 Newton Abbot Christopher Robin (IRE)J: Lilly Pinchin Download The At The Races App Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 33/1

24 May 22 Bath Lanzarote Sunshine (GB)J: Finley Marsh At The Races App Form Study Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 150/1

09 May 22 Wolverhampton (AW) Miracle Garden (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 33/1

02 May 22 Warwick Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Richard Patrick Poundland, Proud Sponsors Of Warwick Racecourse Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 20/1

24 Apr 22 Bath Lanzarote Sunshine (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Cazoo Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 100/1

10 Apr 22 Stratford Eva's Diva (IRE)J: Richard Patrick Happy 90th Birthday John Barnett Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 12/1

11 Mar 22 Leicester Dun Bay Creek (GB)J: Harry Reed CDS Colleague Appreciation Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 100/1

08 Mar 22 Wolverhampton (AW) Miracle Garden (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson MansionBet Proud Partners Of AWC Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 66/1

25 Feb 22 Warwick Dun Bay Creek (GB)J: Ben Poste Oldgoldracing.com - Own Part Of The Action Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 150/1

25 Jan 22 Leicester Dun Bay Creek (GB)J: David Noonan Bet At Racingtv.com Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 9th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Roy Brotherton's strike rate?: Roy Brotherton has won 65 of 1,066 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roy Brotherton do best at?: Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 77 runners (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roy Brotherton?: Tom Eaves, with 149 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.1%).
What is Roy Brotherton's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 1,059 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.