What is David Thompson's strike rate?

David Thompson has won 145 of 2,669 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Thompson do best at?

Fakenham by strike rate: 9 wins from 82 runners (11%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Thompson?

Tony Kelly, with 117 runners since 2008 — 4% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (6.8%).

Is David Thompson in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is David Thompson's Fair A/E?

0.82, from 2,662 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Thompson

2,669 runners in the lifetime window · 229 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

145–2,669

Wins / Runs

5.4%

Strike rate

n=2,669

573 (22%)

Placed

0.82

Fair A/E

n=2,662 · 0.70 incl. margin

−1,101.08

£1 level stake

n=2,669 at SP · −41.3%

£1.18m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 140 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.82).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,669 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 20.8% when favourite Tony Kelly: 6.8% from 117 Sends off the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −513.55 to a £1 stake over 1,245 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tony Kelly rides 4% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The stable star of the record: Cusack (GB) — 10 wins from 57 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.6%−0.8

n=373 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −114.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.3%−1.1

n=163 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −45.50

Debutants · first career start

3.3%−2.1

n=61 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −39.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.6%−0.8

n=65 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −36.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.3%+0.9

n=159 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −85.55

When favourite

20.8%

n=77 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −22.47

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.4%+0.0

n=1,245 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −513.55

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.4

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 13.8% vs 5.4% · n=152

With Connor Beasley 12.5% vs 5.4% · n=72

With Rhys Elliott 12.3% vs 5.4% · n=57

With Clifford Lee 12.5% vs 5.4% · n=48

With Aled Beech 12.5% vs 5.4% · n=48

With Sean Kirrane 11.4% vs 5.4% · n=88

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,749 101 5.8% −654.90

Hurdle 611 23 3.8% −323.38

Chase 220 20 9.1% −42.80

NH Flat 89 1 1.1% −80.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 741 59 8% −142.39

Good 692 35 5.1% −290.72

Good to Firm 409 12 2.9% −294.84

Soft 366 19 5.2% −99.25

Good to Soft 359 15 4.2% −215.38

Heavy 96 5 5.2% −52.50

Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 529 43 8.1% −68.67

Catterick 244 8 3.3% −138.50

Redcar 236 9 3.8% −104.17

Sedgefield 175 12 6.9% −61.75

Newcastle 132 3 2.3% −80.00

Carlisle 122 7 5.7% −47.67

Southwell (AW) 108 10 9.3% −17.05

Hexham 100 3 3% −80.38

Musselburgh 89 6 6.7% −36.17

Thirsk 87 3 3.4% −57.00

Fakenham 82 9 11% +20.62

Cartmel 81 4 4.9% −45.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 80 5 6.3% −37.00

Wetherby 80 5 6.3% −37.50

Hamilton 76 5 6.6% −29.62

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,237 75 6.1% −382.98

Class 5 823 45 5.5% −393.18

Class 4 515 22 4.3% −273.92

Class 3 52 2 3.8% −35.00

Class 2 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 7 19 1 5.3% +7.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 101 20 19.8% 0.86 −28.89

2nd–3rd fav 368 42 11.4% 0.76 −152.19

4th–6th fav 825 52 6.3% 0.87 −274.00

7th+ in betting 1,375 31 2.3% 0.79 −646.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 554 34 6.1% −230.22

1m2f – 1m4f 479 25 5.2% −194.51

1m – 1m1f 417 26 6.2% −67.92

1m5f – 2m 399 15 3.8% −232.00

2m1f – 2m4f 398 15 3.8% −231.88

2m5f – 3m 233 14 6% −86.05

Under 6f 123 9 7.3% −65.25

Over 3m 66 7 10.6% +6.75

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 75 4 5.3% −46.00

2009 115 3 2.6% −91.50

2010 101 1 1% −94.50

2011 110 3 2.7% −59.00

2012 97 6 6.2% −23.38

2013 105 7 6.7% +8.75

2014 132 4 3% −108.25

2015 152 5 3.3% −89.25

2016 130 5 3.8% −63.00

2017 135 11 8.1% −29.34

2018 150 7 4.7% −59.25

2019 182 12 6.6% −11.17

2020 151 8 5.3% −61.17

2021 174 7 4% −90.17

2022 180 16 8.9% −32.43

2023 190 8 4.2% −84.25

2024 189 18 9.5% −14.17

2025 195 16 8.2% −81.12

2026 106 4 3.8% −71.88

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,046 123 6% −672.24

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 926 61 6.6% −272.47

11-13 runners 912 39 4.3% −514.92

5-7 runners 379 27 7.1% −172.26

14-16 runners 361 15 4.2% −58.88

17+ runners 65 1 1.5% −61.00

2-4 runners 26 2 7.7% −21.55

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Visitant (GB) 73 6 26 26 May 25

Lukoutoldmakezebak (GB)from James Bethell 73 5 19 25 Mar 22

Martin's Brig (IRE)from Iain Jardine 72 7 27 22 Jun 26

Someone Exciting (GB)from Alexandra Dunn 67 5 24 23 Sep 20

John Kirkup (GB)from Michael Dods 66 2 20 5 Nov 25

Coup De Gold (IRE)from William Haggas · then Evan Williams 58 2 16 6 Mar 24

Cusack (GB)from John Davies 57 10 26 12 Oct 26

Dirchill (IRE)from David Barron 53 4 14 24 Oct 22

Shaiyzar (IRE)from Eoin Doyle 53 2 16 15 Sep 20

Bowdler's Magic (GB)from David Nicholls 52 3 19 31 Mar 17

Wheres The Crumpet (GB) 48 4 9 31 Aug 26

Weybridge Light (GB)from Jim Best 47 3 22 30 Mar 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 229 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 50 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Dods (4) and John Davies (3); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard; 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6812344463657

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTony Kelly

4% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 1.05

RiderRWSR£1

Tony Kelly 117 8 6.8% −51.63

Sean Kirrane 88 10 11.4% +5.00

Harrison Shaw 79 5 6.3% −30.00

Connor Beasley 72 9 12.5% +16.50

Paddy Mathers 69 3 4.3% −36.50

Aaron Anderson 67 3 4.5% −10.00

Andrew Mullen 65 2 3.1% −25.00

David Allan 64 5 7.8% −29.26

Joshua Thompson 62 0 0% −62.00

Rhys Elliott 57 7 12.3% +23.38

Adam Nicol 50 3 6% −7.25

Andrew Elliott 48 2 4.2% −24.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

159

Archived wins

£1.25m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 18 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Cusack (GB) — Win 2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Feb 2024 · Class 5

£9,421

Visitant (GB) — Ice & Easy Frozen Alcoholic Slushies Handicap York · Jun 2017 · Class 4

£7,763

Danielsflyer (IRE) — Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Mar 2024 · Class 4

£7,537

Notable horses

Cusack (GB) Martin's Brig (IRE) Glan Y Gors (IRE) Visitant (GB) Lukoutoldmakezebak (GB) Someone Exciting (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mukhadram (GB) 11.9% · 10–84

Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,444 runs since 2018 (199 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.2% from 302.

Assertive (GB) 2.5% · 2–79

Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,569 runs since 2012 (84 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.3% from 159.

Arabian Gleam (GB) 6.8% · 5–73

Progeny have won 7.6% of 524 runs since 2014 (39 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.7% from 237.

Pivotal (GB) 8.2% · 6–73

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,789 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Equiano (FR) 9.7% · 7–72

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,541 runs since 2014 (549 horses).

Notnowcato (GB) 7.5% · 5–67

Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,370 runs since 2011 (226 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.5% from 386. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.6% from 349.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,998 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,998 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2005 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Rock Armour (IRE)J: Jack Power Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran PU 28/1

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Joshua Thompson Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 4th 100/30J

27 Oct 26 Catterick Stormy Pearl (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Celebrating Helen MacKinnon's LX Years Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 9/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Too Much (GB)J: Aiden Brookes Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 6th 16/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Miss Tino (GB)J: Barry McHugh Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 50/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Joshua Thompson Vickers Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 15/2

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Illogical Logic (FR)J: Ellis Collier Celebrating 40 Years Of Vickers Bookmakers Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 4th 3/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Rock Armour (IRE)J: Joshua Thompson Michael And Olivia Watson Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 33/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Miss Tino (GB)J: Barry McHugh Every Race Live On Racing TV Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 5th 200/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Mystic Wave (GB)J: Aiden Brookes Central Employment & Training Partnership Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 100/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Stormy Pearl (GB)J: Connor Beasley Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 28/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Cusack (GB)J: Cam Hardie Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 66/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Rock Armour (IRE)J: Joshua Thompson Hitz Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran UR 40/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Mystic Wave (GB)J: Aiden Brookes Henry Malone 1926 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 150/1

02 Oct 26 Hexham Illogical Logic (FR)J: Ellis Collier Davey Liddle Belated Birthday Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 1st 13/8

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Cusack (GB)J: Gina Mangan Northumbrian Wateraid Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Joshua Thompson House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 9/2

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Too Much (GB)J: Aiden Brookes Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 11/1

09 Sep 26 Redcar Stormy Pearl (GB)J: Cam Hardie Visit Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 11th 15/2

09 Sep 26 Sedgefield Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Joshua Thompson Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 26 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Thompson's strike rate?: David Thompson has won 145 of 2,669 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Thompson do best at?: Fakenham by strike rate: 9 wins from 82 runners (11%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Thompson?: Tony Kelly, with 117 runners since 2008 — 4% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (6.8%).
Is David Thompson in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Thompson's Fair A/E?: 0.82, from 2,662 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.