What is Brian Ellison's strike rate?

Brian Ellison has won 1,212 of 10,312 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Brian Ellison do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 88 wins from 426 runners (20.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Brian Ellison?

Ben Robinson, with 1,721 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 171 (9.9%).

Is Brian Ellison in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Brian Ellison's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 10,261 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Brian Ellison

10,312 runners in the lifetime window · 830 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.1% of 504 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 2 Nov 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,212–10,312

Wins / Runs

11.8%

Strike rate

n=10,312

3,233 (31%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=10,261 · 0.86 incl. margin

−2,481.11

£1 level stake

n=10,312 at SP · −24.1%

£13.5m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 540 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 17% first time out (434 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 10,312 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 36.1% when favourite Ben Robinson: 9.9% from 1,721 New recruits: 17.3% Claiming riders: 12.3% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sedgefield (20.7%, n=426), clear of the yard's 11.8% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 17.3% (n=434, Fair A/E 1.32), but debutants struggle at 5.7% (n=383, Fair A/E 0.82). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 7.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −190.89 to a £1 stake over 367 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Ben Robinson rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.9%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. 25 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2016, £148,000). The stable star of the record: John Forbes (GB) — 13 wins from 74 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.8%−3.0

n=1,476 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −476.56

New recruits · first run for the yard

17.3%+5.5

n=434 · A/E 1.32 · £1 +60.47

Debutants · first career start

5.7%−6.1

n=383 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −81.35

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.9%−3.9

n=367 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −190.89

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.1%−0.7

n=479 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −93.79

When favourite

36.1%

n=1,184 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −42.67

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.3%+0.5

n=3,008 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −571.81

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.4%−4.4

n=338 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −118.22

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Sedgefield 20.7% vs 11.8% · n=426

With Brian Hughes 21.3% vs 11.8% · n=235

On last-time-out winners 18.5% vs 11.8% · n=1,218

With Megan Carberry 21.9% vs 11.8% · n=96

With Danny Cook 18.6% vs 11.8% · n=656

With Cam Hardie 3.7% vs 11.8% · n=163

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 7,132 742 10.4% −1,783.63

Hurdle 2,058 288 14% −500.44

Chase 857 137 16% −115.12

NH Flat 265 45 17% −81.92

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 2,766 300 10.8% −920.95

Standard (AW) 2,460 299 12.2% −481.73

Good to Firm 1,578 165 10.5% −326.94

Good to Soft 1,558 193 12.4% −322.95

Soft 1,518 182 12% −423.96

Heavy 415 72 17.3% +4.42

Firm 17 1 5.9% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 913 81 8.9% −291.04

Southwell (AW) 695 113 16.3% −98.79

Wolverhampton (AW) 661 81 12.3% −77.19

Musselburgh 514 53 10.3% −168.38

Newcastle 495 62 12.5% −172.93

Beverley 485 42 8.7% −57.88

Catterick 464 82 17.7% +16.62

Doncaster 445 33 7.4% −176.21

Sedgefield 426 88 20.7% −45.67

York 420 27 6.4% −73.92

Carlisle 372 54 14.5% −56.83

Redcar 317 24 7.6% −208.28

Market Rasen 314 47 15% −15.56

Ayr 287 39 13.6% −44.35

Thirsk 283 27 9.5% −61.32

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 2,972 376 12.7% −779.88

Class 5 2,657 325 12.2% −448.34

Class 6 1,987 267 13.4% −508.15

Class 3 1,224 137 11.2% −351.06

Class 2 1,001 70 7% −230.64

Class 1 386 26 6.7% −162.97

Class 7 11 1 9.1% −8.62

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,386 465 33.5% 1.11 −86.56

2nd–3rd fav 2,616 435 16.6% 1.00 −296.55

4th–6th fav 3,164 227 7.2% 0.90 −866.00

7th+ in betting 3,146 85 2.7% 0.76 −1,232.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 2,209 299 13.5% −611.76

6f – 7f 2,143 211 9.8% −648.66

1m2f – 1m4f 1,742 200 11.5% −432.73

1m – 1m1f 1,456 154 10.6% −330.06

2m1f – 2m4f 1,258 198 15.7% −131.46

Under 6f 901 70 7.8% −175.29

2m5f – 3m 448 59 13.2% −107.71

Over 3m 155 21 13.5% −43.44

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 333 32 9.6% −127.96

2009 408 44 10.8% −53.72

2010 452 70 15.5% −6.20

2011 546 85 15.6% −88.72

2012 696 95 13.6% −103.03

2013 801 105 13.1% −37.08

2014 863 100 11.6% −252.63

2015 788 91 11.5% −289.93

2016 713 109 15.3% −98.19

2017 665 65 9.8% −228.50

2018 542 61 11.3% −183.16

2019 446 57 12.8% −141.67

2020 440 46 10.5% −157.07

2021 489 49 10% −211.38

2022 455 46 10.1% −142.79

2023 384 41 10.7% −125.67

2024 444 47 10.6% +77.78

2025 441 44 10% −126.04

2026 406 25 6.2% −185.15

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 7,344 808 11% −1,681.71

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 3,341 399 11.9% −721.09

11-13 runners 2,764 266 9.6% −732.03

5-7 runners 2,118 352 16.6% −399.53

14-16 runners 1,176 103 8.8% −273.85

17+ runners 669 28 4.2% −310.42

2-4 runners 244 64 26.2% −44.19

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mon Brav (GB)from Declan Carroll 68 6 22 22 Sep 16

Nietzsche (GB)from William Haggas 66 12 25 5 Dec 22

Snookered (IRE)from Richard Fahey · then Hugh Burns 62 9 18 29 Jan 23

Daaweitza (GB) 61 7 16 22 Nov 11

Lakeman (IRE) 60 4 14 6 Feb 13

Simonside (GB) 59 8 18 24 Apr 13

The Dancing Poet (GB)from Ed Vaughan 56 9 20 30 May 25

Dream Walker (FR)from Ian McInnes 56 9 18 11 Sep 19

Ultimate (GB)from Hughie Morrison 56 6 12 17 Apr 15

Baraweez (IRE)from F Head 55 7 14 24 Jul 20

Serenity Now (IRE) 55 8 24 12 Nov 18

Freddy Robinson (GB) 52 4 22 30 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 830 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 30 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ian McInnes (2) and Paul Murphy (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Marjorie Fife (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 13

Only 13 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

171213101012121211121112

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBen Robinson

17% of all rides
9.9% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Ben Robinson 1,721 171 9.9% −453.00

Danny Cook 656 122 18.6% −125.56

Dale Swift 613 77 12.6% −141.45

Tom Eaves 482 32 6.6% −275.21

Ben Curtis 423 53 12.5% −69.39

Paul Pickard 317 33 10.4% −35.62

Henry Brooke 307 45 14.7% −95.38

Barry McHugh 249 42 16.9% −13.52

Harry Russell 245 22 9% −89.72

Brian Hughes 235 50 21.3% −30.40

Silvestre De Sousa 175 34 19.4% +30.48

Nathan Moscrop 175 10 5.7% −123.49

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,307

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£14.3m

Prize money

2016

Best season · 109 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Orewa (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes Curragh · Sep 2016

£148,000

Moyenne Corniche (GB) — Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2011 · Class 2

£130,725

Baraweez (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. 'Sovereign Path' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Leopardstown · Sep 2014

£90,000

Notable horses

John Forbes (GB) Daaweitza (GB) Nietzsche (GB) Definitly Red (IRE) Apterix (FR) Dontpaytheferryman (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Born To Sea (IRE) 14.3% · 25–175

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,287 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 970. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 867. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.

Cape Cross (IRE) 12.9% · 20–155

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Daawe (USA) 10.7% · 16–149

Progeny have won 9.6% of 167 runs since 2008 (5 horses).

Poet's Voice (GB) 17.2% · 21–122

Progeny have won 10% of 6,045 runs since 2015 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 494. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.

Jet Away (GB) 11.9% · 14–118

Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,534 runs since 2018 (273 horses).

Dubai Destination (USA) 17.1% · 19–111

Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 11,217 · newest first

The latest 50 of 11,217 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Regal Desire (FR)J: Paul Mulrennan Awc Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 20/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Freddy Robinson (GB)J: Faye McManoman Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 22/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Homestrait (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Remembering Kevin Lumb AKA Burnley Kevin Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 6/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sunday River (GB)J: Harry Russell Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 16/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Amantha (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Christmas Parties At Leicester Racecourse - Book Now Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 16/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Miss Veronika (GB)J: Callum Rodriguez Join The Midnite Movement Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 6/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Tolstoy (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 3rd 13/2

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Lir Speciale (IRE)J: William Buick William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 3/1F

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Freddy Robinson (GB)J: Rowan Scott Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Selling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 17/2

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mollisha (IRE)J: George Wood AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 28/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Queen Roslyn (GB)J: Jason Watson Midnite: Built For 2027 Not 2007 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 7/2

21 Oct 26 Newmarket Callianassa (IRE)J: William Buick Copybet Follow Us On X Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 2/1J

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Bonjour Belle (GB)J: Luke Morris AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 25/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Tashkhan (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Wor Faayth (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 9th 66/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Homestrait (IRE)J: Billy Garritty British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 11/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Temple Of Athena (GB)J: Connor Beasley Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 5/1F

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sunday River (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 9/2

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Qila (GB)J: Harry Russell QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 13/8F

16 Oct 26 Haydock Lir Speciale (IRE)J: Rowan Scott M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 9/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 7 runs (won 2) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Brian Ellison's strike rate?: Brian Ellison has won 1,212 of 10,312 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brian Ellison do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 88 wins from 426 runners (20.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Brian Ellison?: Ben Robinson, with 1,721 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 171 (9.9%).
Is Brian Ellison in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Brian Ellison's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 10,261 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.