What is Michael Herrington's strike rate?

Michael Herrington has won 261 of 2,483 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Herrington do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 8 wins from 43 runners (18.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Herrington?

Tom Eaves, with 622 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8.4%).

Is Michael Herrington in form?

In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 33.3%. That is above the baseline of 10.5% since 2008.

What is Michael Herrington's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 2,475 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Herrington

2,483 runners in the lifetime window · 137 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 2.6% of 351 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 3 Nov 2026.

In form — 6 winners last 14 days Runners today 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

261–2,483

Wins / Runs

10.5%

Strike rate

n=2,483

781 (32%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=2,475 · 0.90 incl. margin

−550.86

£1 level stake

n=2,483 at SP · −22.2%

£2.31m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

18.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 130 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). The yard is in form now — 6 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,483 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 30.2% when favourite Tom Eaves: 8.4% from 622 Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet new recruits from other stables on their first run: 4.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.63 and −81.62 to a £1 stake over 114 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is firing: 6 winners from 18 runners in the last 14 days (33.3%, 22.8pts above the 10.5% baseline). Tom Eaves rides 25% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (8.4% vs 10.5%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.2% over 90 runners, 8.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 2: Fair A/E 0.30 across 84 runners (2.4% strike, −71.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Good Earth (IRE) — 13 wins from 79 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.3%−4.2

n=255 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −115.46

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.4%−6.1

n=114 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −81.62

Debutants · first career start

0%−10.5

n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−10.5

n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −35.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.4%−1.1

n=138 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −47.13

When favourite

30.2%

n=212 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −12.79

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.4%−1.1

n=395 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −108.13

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.5

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.9% vs 10.5% · n=256

With David Probert 22.2% vs 10.5% · n=63

With Jason Hart 19.8% vs 10.5% · n=121

Off a break of 180+ days 2.2% vs 10.5% · n=90

With first-time headgear 0% vs 10.5% · n=35

In Class 2 2.4% vs 10.5% · n=84

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,463 260 10.6% −540.36

NH Flat 20 1 5% −10.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,620 182 11.2% −338.27

Good to Firm 331 37 11.2% −93.25

Good 263 16 6.1% −136.50

Good to Soft 135 16 11.9% +76.33

Soft 111 8 7.2% −45.42

Heavy 22 2 9.1% −12.75

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 506 53 10.5% −155.14

Southwell (AW) 497 72 14.5% +1.17

Newcastle (AW) 380 31 8.2% −100.04

Chelmsford City (AW) 102 12 11.8% −34.42

Kempton (AW) 97 11 11.3% −38.67

Redcar 93 6 6.5% −34.80

Doncaster 92 9 9.8% −30.50

Beverley 71 5 7% −35.30

Thirsk 53 2 3.8% −25.00

Yarmouth 50 5 10% +28.50

Carlisle 48 5 10.4% −3.50

Pontefract 44 6 13.6% +8.88

Leicester 43 8 18.6% +7.80

York 42 3 7.1% −9.50

Catterick 38 2 5.3% −19.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,110 125 11.3% −207.26

Class 5 734 74 10.1% −195.69

Class 4 386 42 10.9% −21.29

Class 3 153 15 9.8% −61.12

Class 2 84 2 2.4% −71.50

Class 7 11 3 27.3% +11.00

Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 245 69 28.2% 1.09 −25.17

2nd–3rd fav 512 99 19.3% 1.22 +19.81

4th–6th fav 778 65 8.4% 0.97 −150.50

7th+ in betting 948 28 3% 0.82 −395.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,322 138 10.4% −288.58

1m – 1m1f 572 61 10.7% −60.41

Under 6f 374 40 10.7% −120.44

1m2f – 1m4f 162 16 9.9% −85.93

1m5f – 2m 50 5 10% +2.00

2m1f – 2m4f 3 1 33.3% +2.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2009 2 0 0% −2.00

2010 58 4 6.9% −37.50

2011 40 3 7.5% −21.00

2012 29 1 3.4% −18.00

2013 60 6 10% −30.40

2014 110 10 9.1% −52.62

2015 88 6 6.8% −14.50

2016 114 12 10.5% −24.00

2017 123 11 8.9% −46.25

2018 119 11 9.2% −41.75

2019 137 15 10.9% −7.67

2020 137 12 8.8% −58.62

2021 166 10 6% −88.63

2022 224 18 8% −54.00

2023 207 25 12.1% −52.85

2024 255 29 11.4% +6.74

2025 312 33 10.6% −77.31

2026 302 55 18.2% +69.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,208 242 11% −378.07

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 955 112 11.7% −188.36

11-13 runners 931 82 8.8% −218.36

5-7 runners 255 44 17.3% −28.02

14-16 runners 246 15 6.1% −89.00

17+ runners 82 5 6.1% −27.00

2-4 runners 14 3 21.4% −0.12

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Street Poet (IRE)from Sir Michael Stoute 86 12 33 14 Jan 23

Steelriver (IRE)from James Bethell 81 11 34 3 Oct 22

Good Earth (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 79 13 32 30 Oct 26

Kodebreaker (IRE)from Kevin Ryan 68 4 25 13 Jan 26

Mishaal (IRE)from Roger Varian 60 5 25 24 Jun 18

Bay Of Naples (IRE)from Mark Johnston 59 4 22 20 Apr 25

Anif (IRE)from David Evans 55 8 18 10 Apr 25

Duke Cosimo (GB)from David Barron 54 4 17 14 Sep 19

Soames Forsyte (GB)from Kevin Philippart De Foy 53 7 15 17 Oct 26

Glorious Charmer (GB)from Ed Walker 52 5 20 19 Feb 24

Powdering (IRE)from Kevin Ryan 50 8 19 26 Oct 26

Kommander Kirkup (GB)from John Davies 48 4 13 29 Apr 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 137 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 53 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Ryan (6) and Alice Haynes (4); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

6 from 18 33.3% · +22.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days33.3%

Lifetime base10.5%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

151013109101210101289

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Eaves

25% of all rides
8.4% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Eaves 622 52 8.4% −159.85

Dylan Hogan 124 18 14.5% +30.37

Jason Hart 121 24 19.8% +22.92

Phil Dennis 90 4 4.4% −67.50

Paul Mulrennan 86 7 8.1% −43.00

David Probert 63 14 22.2% +25.96

Connor Planas 59 7 11.9% +15.50

P J McDonald 51 7 13.7% +24.38

Jack Mitchell 48 6 12.5% −7.75

Robert Winston 45 8 17.8% +0.38

Andrew Mullen 41 3 7.3% −23.00

Andrea Pinna 40 4 10% −9.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

261

Archived wins

£2.31m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 55 wins

Good Earth (IRE) — Sky Bet Sunday Series Sprint Handicap Sandown · Aug 2023 · Class 3

£20,616

Down To The Kid (IRE) — SBK: No Casino Just Sports Handicap Southwell (AW) · Feb 2026 · Class 4

£18,319

Good Earth (IRE) — cavani.co.uk The Sartorial Sprint Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2023 · Class 3

£16,200

Notable horses

Good Earth (IRE) Street Poet (IRE) Steelriver (IRE) Anif (IRE) Powdering (IRE) Soames Forsyte (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Iffraaj (GB) 13.7% · 16–117

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,985 runs since 2010 (1,092 horses).

Acclamation (GB) 14.7% · 14–95

Progeny have won 10% of 19,707 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Ribchester (IRE) 13.8% · 12–87

Progeny have won 9% of 2,768 runs since 2021 (261 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.1% from 119. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 215.

Poet's Voice (GB) 14% · 12–86

Progeny have won 10% of 6,045 runs since 2015 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 494. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.

Charm Spirit (IRE) 9.8% · 8–82

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,822 runs since 2018 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 134. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 445.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 8% · 6–75

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,483 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,483 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 November 2009 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Evening Blues (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 4/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Elyam (GB)J: Jason Hart Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 15/8F

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Good Earth (IRE)J: Sean Levey 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Down To The Kid (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Nikovo (GB)J: Rowan Scott AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 11/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Raging Raj (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Anthropologist (GB)J: Dylan Hogan All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 1/1F

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Rambuso Creek (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 5/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Lady Roxby (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 4/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Powdering (IRE)J: Charlie Tucker Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 18/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Toastmaster (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 13/8F

26 Oct 26 Leicester Between Me And U (GB)J: David Probert Hamish's Birthday Countdown Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 13/2

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Anthropologist (GB)J: Dylan Hogan All-weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 4/1F

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Feel The Need (GB)J: Sean Levey Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 10/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Papa Cocktail (IRE)J: Jason Hart Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 5/1J

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Optician (GB)J: Jason Hart Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 4/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Irish Nectar (GB)J: Dylan Hogan CopyBet BOG Now For Cheltenham Tomorrow Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 4/9F

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Amelia's Joy (GB)J: David Probert Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 1st 100/30

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Rambuso Creek (IRE)J: Toby Moore Brandford Restaurants & Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 7/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Powdering (IRE)J: David Probert British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 15 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 3) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 5 runs (won 1) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Michael Herrington's strike rate?: Michael Herrington has won 261 of 2,483 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Herrington do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 8 wins from 43 runners (18.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Herrington?: Tom Eaves, with 622 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8.4%).
Is Michael Herrington in form?: In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 33.3%. That is above the baseline of 10.5% since 2008.
What is Michael Herrington's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 2,475 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.