What is Tony Carroll's strike rate?

Tony Carroll has won 1,403 of 14,574 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tony Carroll do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 140 wins from 1,047 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tony Carroll?

George Downing, with 1,067 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 80 (7.5%).

Is Tony Carroll in form?

In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 9.4%. That is in line with the baseline of 9.6% since 2008.

What is Tony Carroll's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 14,504 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tony Carroll

14,574 runners in the lifetime window · 862 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.6% of 1,256 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.2–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 11 Nov 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,403–14,574

Wins / Runs

9.6%

Strike rate

n=14,574

4,010 (28%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=14,504 · 0.85 incl. margin

−3,817.30

£1 level stake

n=14,574 at SP · −26.2%

£9.85m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 770 runners a season, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99).

Deterministic profile computed from 14,574 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 32.6% when favourite George Downing: 7.5% from 1,067 Claiming riders: 10.1% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0.4% (n=263, Fair A/E 0.15). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 4.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.54 and −141.50 to a £1 stake over 218 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. George Downing rides 7% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (7.5% vs 9.6%, A/E 0.94). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18.1%, n=1,153). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 90 runners, 9.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.49 across 607 runners (2.3% strike, −376.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Investec Specialist Bank 'Dash' at Epsom Downs (Jun 2014, £62,250). The stable star of the record: Pour La Victoire (IRE) — 17 wins from 114 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.4%−5.2

n=1,790 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −908.04

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.8%−0.8

n=568 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −112.87

Debutants · first career start

0.4%−9.2

n=263 · A/E 0.15 · £1 −257.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.6%−5.0

n=218 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −141.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.7%+1.1

n=661 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −123.09

When favourite

32.6%

n=1,105 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −11.85

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.1%+0.5

n=5,035 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −1,174.08

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.3%−5.3

n=47 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −28.70

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 18.1% vs 9.6% · n=1,153

On last-time-out winners 17.7% vs 9.6% · n=1,411

With debutants 0.4% vs 9.6% · n=263

Off a break of 180+ days 2.3% vs 9.6% · n=607

With Rossa Ryan 17.7% vs 9.6% · n=277

In NH Flat races 0% vs 9.6% · n=90

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 12,456 1227 9.9% −3,355.58

Hurdle 1,515 121 8% −394.51

Chase 513 55 10.7% +22.79

NH Flat 90 0 0% −90.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 7,061 687 9.7% −1,985.19

Good 2,442 219 9% −422.03

Good to Firm 2,232 255 11.4% −415.32

Good to Soft 1,266 103 8.1% −439.29

Soft 1,036 77 7.4% −403.59

Heavy 322 29 9% −115.26

Firm 215 33 15.3% −36.62

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 2,554 249 9.7% −747.41

Kempton 1,847 154 8.3% −667.92

Lingfield 1,304 133 10.2% −416.04

Brighton 1,047 140 13.4% −257.16

Southwell (AW) 762 81 10.6% −41.51

Bath 749 88 11.7% −161.86

Chepstow 624 53 8.5% −207.92

Windsor 590 47 8% −150.34

Leicester 518 51 9.8% −76.92

Chelmsford (AW) 455 48 10.5% −102.72

Nottingham 230 14 6.1% −88.75

Warwick 223 14 6.3% −91.25

Goodwood 221 22 10% +9.53

Newbury 219 13 5.9% −101.79

Lingfield 208 26 12.5% −38.43

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 6,861 723 10.5% −1,682.24

Class 5 3,925 368 9.4% −1,125.09

Class 4 2,407 195 8.1% −660.93

Class 3 662 56 8.5% −107.12

Class 2 328 24 7.3% −96.00

Class 7 314 30 9.6% −115.22

Class 1 59 2 3.4% −40.70

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,347 418 31% 1.13 −20.11

2nd–3rd fav 2,939 448 15.2% 0.95 −524.99

4th–6th fav 4,712 374 7.9% 0.97 −1,080.20

7th+ in betting 5,576 163 2.9% 0.87 −2,192.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 4,591 435 9.5% −1,160.17

1m – 1m1f 2,573 229 8.9% −792.53

1m2f – 1m4f 2,528 236 9.3% −944.40

Under 6f 2,059 254 12.3% −184.21

1m5f – 2m 1,827 166 9.1% −511.05

2m1f – 2m4f 656 57 8.7% −125.51

2m5f – 3m 302 24 7.9% −81.18

Over 3m 38 2 5.3% −18.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 641 45 7% −237.79

2009 529 44 8.3% −133.42

2010 559 50 8.9% −174.62

2011 708 70 9.9% −81.65

2012 619 50 8.1% −264.04

2013 679 57 8.4% −258.79

2014 659 76 11.5% −176.56

2015 703 70 10% −157.62

2016 701 57 8.1% −196.47

2017 672 35 5.2% −405.76

2018 631 75 11.9% −108.98

2019 738 81 11% −104.84

2020 780 82 10.5% −159.22

2021 967 82 8.5% −353.46

2022 970 89 9.2% −79.64

2023 997 79 7.9% −300.60

2024 942 106 11.3% −225.22

2025 1,055 130 12.3% −127.81

2026 1,024 125 12.2% −270.81

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 12,164 1222 10% −2,817.43

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 5,393 545 10.1% −1,024.82

11-13 runners 4,707 346 7.4% −1,573.40

5-7 runners 2,658 365 13.7% −629.34

14-16 runners 1,331 83 6.2% −514.62

17+ runners 277 12 4.3% −72.50

2-4 runners 208 52 25% −2.62

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Poetic Force (IRE)from Jonathan Portman 119 16 43 4 Apr 26

Pour La Victoire (IRE)from Nigel Tinkler 114 17 50 4 Aug 21

Boom The Groom (IRE)from W Figge 112 12 31 28 May 24

Under Curfew (GB)from Jedd O'Keeffe 104 9 38 12 May 26

Ocean Legend (IRE)from Julia Feilden 102 16 38 11 Jan 17

Second Collection (GB) 96 11 34 16 Mar 26

Kinkeel (IRE) 90 5 22 8 Mar 13

Recon Mission (IRE)from M D O'Callaghan 86 7 26 8 Oct 26

Baltic Prince (IRE)from Paul Green 81 13 29 17 Apr 21

Kondratiev Wave (IRE)from Kieran P Cotter 80 7 31 31 Oct 26

Fieldsman (USA)from David C Griffiths 79 10 30 1 Apr 24

Madrinho (IRE)from John Butler 79 8 28 9 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 862 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 47 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 53 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Hugo Palmer (2) and John Quinn (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 32 9.4% · −0.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days9.4%

Lifetime base9.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

111210910119109689

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderGeorge Downing

7% of all rides
7.5% SR · A/E 0.94

RiderRWSR£1

George Downing 1,067 80 7.5% −374.51

Luke Morris 900 91 10.1% −258.36

Lee Edwards 865 88 10.2% −156.91

William Carson 848 81 9.6% −235.74

Jack Doughty 726 93 12.8% −161.71

Mollie Phillips 527 56 10.6% −62.19

Tom Marquand 469 64 13.6% −36.20

David Probert 430 33 7.7% −164.70

Rossa Ryan 277 49 17.7% −60.66

Molly Gunn 241 21 8.7% −24.77

Hollie Doyle 226 34 15% +1.25

Clifford Lee 221 31 14% +19.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,537

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.6m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 130 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Caspian Prince (IRE) — Investec Specialist Bank 'Dash' (Heritage Handicap) Epsom Downs · Jun 2014 · Class 2

£62,250

Recon Mission (IRE) — Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap York · Jun 2019 · Class 2

£62,250

Boom The Groom (IRE) — Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) York · Aug 2016 · Class 2

£40,463

Notable horses

Pour La Victoire (IRE) Poetic Force (IRE) Ocean Legend (IRE) Baltic Prince (IRE) Lequinto (IRE) Boom The Groom (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 10.2% · 48–470

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 11.2% · 29–260

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,237 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 961.

Assertive (GB) 6.7% · 16–240

Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,569 runs since 2012 (84 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.3% from 159.

Delegator (GB) 12.2% · 22–181

Progeny have won 10.8% of 1,873 runs since 2016 (109 horses). Weakest on Good going: 7.7% from 260. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.4% from 180.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 8.7% · 15–172

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,873 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Cape Cross (IRE) 7.5% · 12–159

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 16,478 · newest first

The latest 50 of 16,478 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Damzon (GB)J: Molly Gunn Join The Midnite Movement Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 66/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Masego (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 5/2

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Cameclose (IRE)J: Harry Davies Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 8/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Secret Mistral (GB)J: Charlie Tucker Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 40/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Teardrops (GB)J: Charlie Tucker Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Up The Anti (IRE)J: William Carson Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 18/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Infantry Officer (GB)J: William Carson Midnite Building The Future Of Betting Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 66/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Solid Bond (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Midnite Building The Future Of Betting Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 40/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Crown The Future (IRE)J: Charlie Tucker Midnite Building The Future Of Betting Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 13/2

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Upepo (IRE)J: Charlie Tucker All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Charlie Mason (GB)J: Myla Coppins Virgin Bet Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series) (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 13/2

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) North View (GB)J: Molly Gunn Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 33/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Turton (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 80/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Far Far Out (IRE)J: William Carson Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 20/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Hk Fourteen (IRE)J: Hollie Doyle Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 11th 18/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Magic Metallurgy (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 100/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Royal Jet (GB)J: Molly Gunn Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 80/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Port Erin (IRE)J: David Probert Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 6th 14/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Sonic Si (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 14/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Shes Got The Blues (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 3/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 7 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 16 runs (won 1) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tony Carroll's strike rate?: Tony Carroll has won 1,403 of 14,574 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Carroll do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 140 wins from 1,047 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tony Carroll?: George Downing, with 1,067 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 80 (7.5%).
Is Tony Carroll in form?: In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 9.4%. That is in line with the baseline of 9.6% since 2008.
What is Tony Carroll's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 14,504 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.