What is James Evans's strike rate?

James Evans has won 172 of 1,848 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Evans do best at?

Market Rasen by strike rate: 13 wins from 71 runners (18.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for James Evans?

Dougie Costello, with 180 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (14.4%).

Is James Evans in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is James Evans's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 1,837 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

James Evans

1,848 runners in the lifetime window · 161 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 5 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

172–1,848

Wins / Runs

9.3%

Strike rate

n=1,848

493 (27%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=1,837 · 0.91 incl. margin

−555.27

£1 level stake

n=1,845 at SP · −30.1%

£1.44m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,848 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 32.5% when favourite Dougie Costello: 14.4% from 180 Claiming riders: 9.8% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fakenham (24.2%, n=33) and Market Rasen (18.3%, n=71) — all clear of the yard's 9.3% baseline. It is weakest at Warwick (0% over 56 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 1.5% (n=65, Fair A/E 0.55). Dougie Costello rides 10% of the entries and beats the yard's average (14.4% vs 9.3%, A/E 1.38) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.6% over 125 runners, 7.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Masqool (IRE) — 12 wins from 69 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.4%−3.9

n=369 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −154.17

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.4%−5.9

n=89 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −61.00

Debutants · first career start

1.5%−7.8

n=65 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −60.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.4%−1.9

n=54 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −37.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.8%−4.5

n=84 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −47.67

When favourite

32.5%

n=114 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +8.43

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.8%+0.5

n=752 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −188.78

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.3

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.6% vs 9.3% · n=168

At Fakenham 24.2% vs 9.3% · n=33

With Joe Leavy 19.7% vs 9.3% · n=142

At Market Rasen 18.3% vs 9.3% · n=71

At Warwick 0% vs 9.3% · n=56

Off a break of 180+ days 1.6% vs 9.3% · n=125

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 973 95 9.8% −283.19

Hurdle 493 31 6.3% −202.73

Chase 312 43 13.8% −14.23

NH Flat 70 3 4.3% −55.12

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 642 69 10.7% −168.44

Good 471 34 7.2% −217.52

Good to Soft 312 25 8% −55.67

Soft 255 28 11% −66.22

Good to Firm 125 13 10.4% −19.75

Heavy 41 3 7.3% −25.67

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 218 19 8.7% −49.17

Southwell (AW) 153 21 13.7% −20.65

Kempton (AW) 131 8 6.1% −78.25

Lingfield (AW) 84 12 14.3% −8.62

Uttoxeter 83 12 14.5% −17.25

Market Rasen 71 13 18.3% +4.96

Southwell 71 4 5.6% −28.00

Huntingdon 60 6 10% +6.70

Hereford 57 3 5.3% −6.67

Warwick 56 0 0% −56.00

Worcester 53 5 9.4% −18.00

Leicester 52 3 5.8% −38.43

Stratford 50 4 8% −20.42

Chepstow 48 0 0% −48.00

Chelmsford (AW) 48 8 16.7% −6.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 556 50 9% −177.84

Class 4 551 54 9.8% −162.59

Class 6 488 47 9.6% −148.59

Class 3 156 12 7.7% −58.25

Class 2 75 7 9.3% −3.50

Class 7 13 2 15.4% +1.50

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 136 39 28.7% 1.11 −6.82

2nd–3rd fav 338 73 21.6% 1.34 +54.05

4th–6th fav 604 44 7.3% 0.90 −127.50

7th+ in betting 767 16 2.1% 0.67 −475.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 359 34 9.5% −122.79

2m5f – 3m 317 37 11.7% −55.22

1m5f – 2m 288 20 6.9% −110.30

1m2f – 1m4f 226 26 11.5% −27.00

2m1f – 2m4f 222 16 7.2% −81.64

1m – 1m1f 190 14 7.4% −99.65

Over 3m 123 9 7.3% −43.17

Under 6f 123 16 13% −15.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 62 5 8.1% −31.25

2009 124 4 3.2% −101.75

2010 160 12 7.5% −51.17

2011 114 9 7.9% −60.10

2012 110 12 10.9% +11.08

2013 93 9 9.7% −23.00

2014 80 7 8.8% −43.79

2015 68 5 7.4% −23.17

2016 85 7 8.2% −7.88

2017 60 6 10% −30.75

2018 47 3 6.4% −15.50

2019 60 6 10% −33.42

2020 58 5 8.6% −23.00

2021 106 9 8.5% −46.38

2022 137 18 13.1% −12.42

2023 144 21 14.6% +24.50

2024 159 16 10.1% −72.92

2025 117 14 12% +6.15

2026 64 4 6.3% −20.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,474 149 10.1% −348.05

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 642 62 9.7% −212.41

11-13 runners 599 47 7.8% −160.67

5-7 runners 291 45 15.5% +1.28

14-16 runners 238 9 3.8% −163.00

17+ runners 51 3 5.9% −16.00

2-4 runners 27 6 22.2% −4.47

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Masqool (IRE)from Saeed bin Suroor · then Tony Carroll 69 12 29 27 Dec 25

Croeso Cymraeg (GB)from John Spearing 67 12 29 24 Oct 25

Dream Composer (FR)from E J O'Neill · then Tony Carroll 58 10 24 20 Oct 25

Prophete de Guye (FR)from Sean Curran 56 7 27 8 Sep 13

Roc De Guye (FR) 51 8 18 2 Oct 16

Bungle Bay (IRE)from Adrian Paul Keatley 49 8 19 28 Sep 26

Justcallmepete (GB)then Tony Carroll 46 7 17 21 Mar 25

Mintana (GB) 44 6 17 13 Oct 26

Heezagrey (IRE)from Martin Keighley 44 4 19 22 May 14

Kentucky Kingdom (IRE)from William Haggas 41 7 14 7 Dec 23

Phoenix Flight (IRE)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt 41 5 14 9 Oct 14

Shakespeare's Son (GB) 41 1 20 19 Nov 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 161 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 35 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Derek Shaw (2) and Jonjo O'Neill (2); 25 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Carroll (4); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

14149610871378810

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDougie Costello

10% of all rides
14.4% SR · A/E 1.38

RiderRWSR£1

Dougie Costello 180 26 14.4% −38.42

Ben Poste 144 9 6.3% −57.30

Joe Leavy 142 28 19.7% +56.23

Liam Treadwell 138 21 15.2% +19.63

Mark Quinlan 82 9 11% −15.30

Timmy Murphy 50 6 12% −0.42

David Dennis 50 3 6% −32.92

Fergus Sweeney 48 2 4.2% −34.00

Robert Kirk 44 3 6.8% −15.25

Tabitha Worsley 43 2 4.7% −0.50

Raul Da Silva 42 8 19% +7.25

Felix De Giles 39 6 15.4% −10.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

179

Archived wins

£1.48m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Dream Composer (FR) — Aston Martin 'Dash' Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Epsom Downs · Jun 2024 · Class 2

£50,960

Dream Composer (FR) — Sky Bet Request A Bet Handicap Pontefract · Aug 2024 · Class 2

£25,770

Dream Composer (FR) — William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap Goodwood · May 2023 · Class 2

£25,770

Notable horses

Masqool (IRE) Croeso Cymraeg (GB) Dream Composer (FR) Roc De Guye (FR) Bungle Bay (IRE) Prophete de Guye (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 16.5% · 13–79

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,840 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Dick Turpin (IRE) 17.9% · 12–67

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,368 runs since 2008 (103 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.7% from 247. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.7% from 149. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 271.

Dream Ahead (USA) 17.2% · 10–58

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,694 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Apple Tree (FR) 12.5% · 7–56

Progeny have won 7.7% of 584 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 114.

Bungle Inthejungle (GB) 16.1% · 9–56

Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,235 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 123. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 2.4% from 124.

Naheez (USA) 7.5% · 4–53

Progeny have won 7% of 457 runs since 2008 (55 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,952 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,952 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Landlordtothestars (IRE)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 16/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Liberty Bird (GB)J: Alfie Redman Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 28/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mintana (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Download The Raceday Ready App Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 14/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jammy Jay (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 9/2

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Liberty Bird (GB)J: Sean Levey Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 12/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Marveling (GB)J: Clifford Lee Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 16/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Wonderful Wendy (GB)J: Joe Leavy Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 17/2

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bungle Bay (IRE)J: Joe Leavy Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 100/30

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mintana (GB)J: Joe Leavy Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 12/1

21 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bungle Bay (IRE)J: Joe Leavy Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 12/1

18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Wonderful Wendy (GB)J: Harry Vigors Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 17/2

07 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Marveling (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 14/1

04 Sep 26 Bangor-on-Dee Jammy Jay (GB)J: Ben Poste Kinsey Anniversary Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 1/1F

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mintana (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Book Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Racecourse Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 40/1

29 Aug 26 Chepstow Wonderful Wendy (GB)J: William Cox Free Bets On Attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 7/2

24 Jul 26 Chepstow Brave Byreflection (IRE)J: William Cox Cheeseburger Aaron Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 11/1

24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Jammy Jay (GB)J: Ben Poste Louise Hall Hen Party Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 4th 9/2

21 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Landlordtothestars (IRE)J: Joe Leavy Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 14/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mintana (GB)J: Joe Leavy Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 7/1

07 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Jammy Jay (GB)J: Charlie Deutsch CopyBet Pay First Past The Post Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is James Evans's strike rate?: James Evans has won 172 of 1,848 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Evans do best at?: Market Rasen by strike rate: 13 wins from 71 runners (18.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Evans?: Dougie Costello, with 180 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (14.4%).
Is James Evans in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is James Evans's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 1,837 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.