What is Adrian McGuinness's strike rate?

Adrian McGuinness has won 517 of 6,568 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian McGuinness do best at?

Dundalk by strike rate: 202 wins from 2,005 runners (10.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian McGuinness?

Adam Caffrey, with 1,087 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (9.7%).

Is Adrian McGuinness in form?

In the last 14 days: 28 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 7.1%. That is in line with the baseline of 7.9% since 2008.

What is Adrian McGuinness's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 6,560 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian McGuinness

6,568 runners in the lifetime window · 431 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.6% of 663 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 5 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 92% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

517–6,568

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=6,568

1,645 (25%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=6,560 · 0.79 incl. margin

−2,135.69

£1 level stake

n=6,568 at SP · −32.5%

£8.92m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 350 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). In Group and Graded company the record reads 10% (180 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 6,568 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 27.8% when favourite Adam Caffrey: 9.7% from 1,087 Group/Graded: 10% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Laytown (AW) (15.3%, n=72), clear of the yard's 7.9% baseline. Debutants struggle at 3% (n=165, Fair A/E 0.82). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −96.00 to a £1 stake over 160 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Adam Caffrey rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.7%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 6 (14.3%, n=105). The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 0% over 64 runners, 7.9pts below the baseline. 19 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2021, £178,563). The stable star of the record: Bubbly Bellini (IRE) — 15 wins from 123 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.7%−1.2

n=631 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −323.90

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.1%−0.8

n=254 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −112.63

Debutants · first career start

3%−4.9

n=165 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −75.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.8%−4.1

n=160 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −96.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.6%−2.3

n=302 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −103.50

When favourite

27.8%

n=388 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −28.57

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.3%−0.6

n=3,162 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −956.65

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10%+2.1

n=180 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −22.70

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 14.9% vs 7.9% · n=510

Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 7.9% · n=64

With Stephen Mooney 0.9% vs 7.9% · n=109

At Laytown (AW) 15.3% vs 7.9% · n=72

With Oisin Orr 16.2% vs 7.9% · n=37

In Class 6 14.3% vs 7.9% · n=105

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 6,056 483 8% −1,951.98

Hurdle 443 31 7% −133.71

Chase 42 3 7.1% −23.00

NH Flat 27 0 0% −27.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,238 230 10.3% −759.74

Good 1,576 115 7.3% −389.25

Soft 1,351 87 6.4% −378.75

Heavy 544 25 4.6% −305.24

Good to Firm 448 31 6.9% −169.62

Good to Soft 389 29 7.5% −111.09

Firm 22 0 0% −22.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 2,005 202 10.1% −687.10

Curragh 616 26 4.2% −349.42

Leopardstown 427 19 4.4% −197.75

Naas 299 20 6.7% −36.50

Gowran Park 287 29 10.1% −31.17

Navan 284 15 5.3% −113.50

Fairyhouse 251 15 6% −117.26

Galway 247 18 7.3% −31.75

Cork 234 14 6% −94.75

Bellewstown 225 16 7.1% −66.62

Down Royal 182 13 7.1% −66.12

Tipperary 153 13 8.5% −50.00

Limerick 142 11 7.7% −34.17

Roscommon 131 11 8.4% −42.50

Ballinrobe 129 13 10.1% −16.37

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 184 18 9.8% −26.70

Class 6 105 15 14.3% −25.39

Class 2 48 1 2.1% −14.00

Class 3 28 2 7.1% −10.50

Class 5 26 3 11.5% −11.25

Class 4 22 3 13.6% +1.50

Class 7 21 0 0% −21.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 497 123 24.7% 1.08 −65.81

2nd–3rd fav 1,139 168 14.7% 1.06 −194.18

4th–6th fav 1,710 135 7.9% 1.00 −313.70

7th+ in betting 3,222 91 2.8% 0.80 −1,562.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 2,598 233 9% −690.62

1m – 1m1f 1,693 128 7.6% −499.42

1m2f – 1m4f 990 63 6.4% −523.47

1m5f – 2m 509 41 8.1% −117.36

Under 6f 506 33 6.5% −235.70

2m1f – 2m4f 207 19 9.2% −4.12

2m5f – 3m 64 0 0% −64.00

Over 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 254 14 5.5% −145.50

2009 221 11 5% −119.50

2010 168 13 7.7% −42.12

2011 181 8 4.4% −105.00

2012 234 20 8.5% −28.67

2013 197 9 4.6% −78.00

2014 180 16 8.9% −10.62

2015 237 16 6.8% −82.00

2016 239 16 6.7% −116.75

2017 295 24 8.1% −117.31

2018 370 30 8.1% −81.89

2019 420 35 8.3% −200.45

2020 391 37 9.5% −81.82

2021 539 43 8% −157.38

2022 505 39 7.7% −48.81

2023 540 49 9.1% −155.93

2024 546 50 9.2% −175.64

2025 520 37 7.1% −201.13

2026 531 50 9.4% −187.17

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,190 390 7.5% −1,698.05

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 2,340 152 6.5% −959.03

11-13 runners 1,697 147 8.7% −543.03

17+ runners 1,113 46 4.1% −459.17

8-10 runners 1,026 116 11.3% −203.42

5-7 runners 363 45 12.4% +23.75

2-4 runners 29 11 37.9% +5.21

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bubbly Bellini (IRE)from Lee Smyth 123 15 39 2 Feb 18

Pillar (GB)from Ralph Beckett · then R K Watson 106 7 46 2 Aug 21

Toufan Express (GB) 91 8 31 20 Dec 13

Distillate (GB) 90 8 25 31 Oct 26

Beau Michael (GB)from Walter Swinburn 90 13 27 7 Sep 14

Specific Gravity (FR)from Sir Henry Cecil 85 8 23 21 Sep 18

Oor Jock (IRE)from John Patrick Shanahan · then P F O'Donnell 84 6 31 28 Jun 18

Skontonovski (GB)from Richard Spencer · then Gerard O'Leary 83 11 29 4 Dec 24

Beau Satchel (GB) 82 9 24 15 Feb 19

Comfort Line (IRE)from Michael Mulvany 80 8 29 4 Nov 26

Sirjack Thomas (IRE)from J P Murtagh 80 7 15 3 Nov 24

Star Harbour (IRE) 75 7 22 21 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 431 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 32 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 48 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Roger Varian (3) and G M Lyons (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Jack W Davison (4) and Dermot A McLoughlin (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

2 from 28 7.1% · −0.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days7.1%

Lifetime base7.9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

121010576889888

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAdam Caffrey

17% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.13

RiderRWSR£1

Adam Caffrey 1,087 105 9.7% −233.25

Cian MacRedmond 643 45 7% −275.42

R. P. Whelan 565 60 10.6% −18.22

Declan McDonogh 308 29 9.4% −91.57

Ian Brennan 292 20 6.8% −85.17

Colin Keane 283 30 10.6% −97.54

R. P. Cleary 228 12 5.3% −132.00

Chris Hayes 203 15 7.4% −48.17

Gavin Ryan 190 19 10% −70.62

Shane Foley 153 14 9.2% −17.25

Sam Coen 138 16 11.6% −10.30

Stephen Mooney 109 1 0.9% −86.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

560

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.58m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 50 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

A Case Of You (IRE) — Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (2yo+) (Sprint Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2021 · Group 1

£178,563

Pierre Royal (IRE) — Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Class 2 Heritage Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2026 · Class 2

£103,080

Current Option (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Sovereign Path' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Leopardstown · Sep 2019

£88,500

Notable horses

Bubbly Bellini (IRE) Beau Michael (GB) Skontonovski (GB) Toufan Express (GB) Beau Satchel (GB) Pivot Bridge (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Medicean (GB) 12.7% · 20–158

Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).

Dandy Man (IRE) 5.9% · 9–153

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,978 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Pivotal (GB) 12.8% · 18–141

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,789 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Kodiac (GB) 3.7% · 5–135

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,595 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Fast Company (IRE) 6.9% · 9–131

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,601 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Mull Of Kintyre (USA) 12.2% · 15–123

Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,010 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,010 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dancing Steve (IRE)J: Camillus Byrne Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 3/1F

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Comfort Line (IRE)J: Cillian Rowan Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 8/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Scarlet Dream (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 14/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Coincidental Glory (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap6f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 12/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thumama Glory (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 100/30

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Go Athletico (FR)J: Camillus Byrne Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Claiming Race6f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 7/2

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Apache Outlaw (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Claiming Race6f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/10F

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Goal Exceeded (GB)J: Camillus Byrne Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 20th 33/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Rock On Johnny (IRE)J: Cillian Rowan Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 15th 100/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Silent Promise (IRE)J: R. P. Cleary Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 12th 150/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Zabriskie Point (GB)J: Harry Vigors Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 10/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Distillate (GB)J: Harry Vigors ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 11/4F

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Serenity Blue (GB)J: Sam Coen Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 13/8F

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Eddie G (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 15/2

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) City House (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/4F

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Blue Anthem (GB)J: Sam Coen View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 7/2

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) One Cool Bear (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 5/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Zabriskie Point (GB)J: Sean Levey AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 4/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Distillate (GB)J: Sean Levey AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 11/10F

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dancing Steve (IRE)J: Camillus Byrne Happy Halloween Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 12 runs (won 2, 2 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 13 runs (won 1, 4 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 7 runs (won 1, 2 did not run) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adrian McGuinness's strike rate?: Adrian McGuinness has won 517 of 6,568 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian McGuinness do best at?: Dundalk by strike rate: 202 wins from 2,005 runners (10.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian McGuinness?: Adam Caffrey, with 1,087 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (9.7%).
Is Adrian McGuinness in form?: In the last 14 days: 28 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 7.1%. That is in line with the baseline of 7.9% since 2008.
What is Adrian McGuinness's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 6,560 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.