What is David Nicholls's strike rate?

David Nicholls has won 552 of 4,748 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Nicholls do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 32 wins from 147 runners (21.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Nicholls?

Adrian Nicholls, with 1,823 runners since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 232 (12.7%).

What is David Nicholls's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 4,699 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Nicholls

4,748 runners in the lifetime window · 416 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Feb 2017 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

552–4,748

Wins / Runs

11.6%

Strike rate

n=4,748

1,415 (30%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=4,699 · 0.94 incl. margin

−570.26

£1 level stake

n=4,747 at SP · −12.0%

£6.81m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 470 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). In Group and Graded company the record reads 16% (221 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,748 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Apr 33.3% when favourite Adrian Nicholls: 12.7% from 1,823 Group/Graded: 16.3% Sent off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (21.8%, n=147), Southwell (AW) (19.5%, n=375) and Cagnes-Sur-Mer (22.6%, n=31) — all clear of the yard's 11.6% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 16.3% (n=221, Fair A/E 1.21), but debutants struggle at 6.5% (n=139, Fair A/E 1.07). Adrian Nicholls rode 38% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.7%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well in Class 6 (19.7%, n=797). The record read poorly in Class 2 — 5.3% over 884 runners, 6.3pts below the baseline. 49 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock (Sep 2009, £163,810). The stable star of the record was Fremen (USA) — 20 wins from 66 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Nov–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.1%−3.5

n=643 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −203.85

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.7%−3.9

n=234 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −81.59

Debutants · first career start

6.5%−5.1

n=139 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +2.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.2%−2.4

n=87 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −22.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.5%+0.9

n=136 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −13.25

When favourite

33.3%

n=463 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +10.26

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10%−1.6

n=1,018 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −189.21

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

16.3%+4.7

n=221 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −15.91

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 6 19.7% vs 11.6% · n=797

At Hamilton 21.8% vs 11.6% · n=147

On last-time-out winners 19.3% vs 11.6% · n=545

At Southwell (AW) 19.5% vs 11.6% · n=375

In Class 2 5.3% vs 11.6% · n=884

At Cagnes-Sur-Mer 22.6% vs 11.6% · n=31

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 99.9% of the archive so far (as at 6 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,746 552 11.6% −568.26

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,344 133 9.9% −213.60

Good to Firm 1,298 149 11.5% −237.58

Standard (AW) 879 146 16.6% +167.25

Good to Soft 621 57 9.2% −203.27

Soft 460 58 12.6% −76.56

Heavy 105 5 4.8% −55.50

Firm 41 4 9.8% +49.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 375 73 19.5% +185.96

Thirsk 345 30 8.7% −136.75

Catterick 325 46 14.2% −25.89

Ripon 269 27 10% −74.55

Doncaster 264 14 5.3% −99.13

York 240 16 6.7% −55.50

Musselburgh 237 28 11.8% −42.17

Ayr 237 19 8% −93.59

Redcar 232 29 12.5% −70.63

Wolverhampton (AW) 229 37 16.2% +6.17

Beverley 204 29 14.2% +81.16

Haydock 196 22 11.2% +15.23

Hamilton 147 32 21.8% +36.19

Chester 140 8 5.7% −93.00

Newcastle 132 8 6.1% −53.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,193 155 13% +3.81

Class 4 1,031 99 9.6% −180.50

Class 2 884 47 5.3% −337.87

Class 6 797 157 19.7% +48.19

Class 3 574 48 8.4% −106.63

Class 1 222 36 16.2% −16.91

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 565 172 30.4% 1.12 −15.41

2nd–3rd fav 1,101 192 17.4% 1.11 −27.05

4th–6th fav 1,364 125 9.2% 1.10 −114.80

7th+ in betting 1,717 63 3.7% 0.92 −413.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tax Free (IRE) 72 8 23 18 Aug 14

Inxile (IRE) 66 12 24 16 Sep 15

Indian Trail (GB)from David Elsworth 66 2 12 31 Aug 13

Imperial Legend (IRE)then Alan Brown 61 6 20 4 Jan 17

Mujaadel (USA)from Ed Dunlop 61 7 14 24 Sep 13

Greenhead High (GB)from Jane Chapple-Hyam 60 7 24 20 Jan 15

Fol Hollow (IRE)then T Hogan 58 7 21 30 Aug 12

Tajneed (IRE)from D K Weld 56 9 21 1 May 14

Layla's Hero (IRE)then Roger Teal 51 13 21 27 Jun 16

Indego Blues (GB) 50 5 10 19 Sep 16

Keys of Cyprus (GB) 50 7 11 2 Jan 13

Kimberella (GB)from Michael Attwater · then Richard Fahey 49 6 16 21 Nov 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 416 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 22 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Bryan Smart (3) and Mark Johnston (3); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Mme J Bidgood (3) and Ruth Carr (2); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1613161311101311981614

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAdrian Nicholls

38% of all rides
12.7% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Adrian Nicholls 1,823 232 12.7% −457.62

Paul Quinn 278 24 8.6% −13.39

Andrew Mullen 252 25 9.9% +74.63

Billy Cray 215 20 9.3% −54.25

Franny Norton 204 26 12.7% +0.82

Michael O'Connell 159 15 9.4% −65.12

Silvestre De Sousa 147 20 13.6% +67.82

Shirley Teasdale 133 12 9% −34.90

Miss Anna Hesketh 99 12 12.1% +35.50

Joe Fanning 93 13 14% −12.00

Michael Metcalfe 66 6 9.1% −35.38

Paul Mulrennan 63 10 15.9% +30.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

758

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.62m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 101 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Regal Parade (GB) — Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) Haydock · Sep 2009 · Group 1

£163,810

Regal Parade (GB) — Prix Maurice De Gheest (3yo+) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2010 · Group 1

£126,416

Redford (IRE) — totesport.com Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Sep 2010 · Class 2

£93,465

Notable horses

Fremen (USA) Tax Free (IRE) Royal Dignitary (USA) Inxile (IRE) Layla's Hero (IRE) Lucayan Dancer (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mujadil (USA) 7.7% · 14–183

Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,379 runs since 2008 (132 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.

Acclamation (GB) 7.5% · 11–146

Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Tagula (IRE) 14% · 17–121

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,561 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.

Pivotal (GB) 18.1% · 21–116

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,789 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Street Cry (IRE) 13.3% · 13–98

Progeny have won 12.7% of 4,258 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 1,577. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 131.

Bertolini (USA) 13.7% · 13–95

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,643 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,643 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 15 February 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Feb 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Storm Trooper (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Betway Sprint Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 3/1F

14 Feb 17 Newcastle (AW) Noah Amor (IRE)J: Danielle Mooney Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Plus HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 16/1

10 Feb 17 Newcastle (AW) Bay Station (GB)J: Paul Quinn 32Red Casino HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 5 ran 5th 50/1

10 Feb 17 Newcastle (AW) Spike's Princess (IRE)J: Paul Quinn 32Red.com Maiden Auction StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 18/1

27 Jan 17 Newcastle (AW) Spike's Princess (IRE)J: Paul Quinn Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Plus Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 50/1

20 Jan 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Noah Amor (IRE)J: Danielle Mooney Betway HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 9/1

05 Jan 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Storm Trooper (IRE)J: Paddy Aspell Betway Sprint HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 28/1

04 Jan 17 Newcastle (AW) Imperial Legend (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Betway Sprint HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 33/1

17 Dec 16 Deauville (FR) Sovereign Debt (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Prix Luthier () (3yo+) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 29/10

16 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) Imperial Legend (IRE)J: Paul Quinn Betway Sprint HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 25/1

16 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) Pearl Acclaim (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Betway Sprint HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 10/1

16 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) Manatee Bay (GB)J: Tom Eaves Betway Claiming StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 11/4

15 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) Noah Amor (IRE)J: Paul Quinn Betway Sprint HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 11/2

15 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) Storm Trooper (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Betway Sprint HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 20/1

15 Dec 16 Newcastle (AW) More Beau (USA)J: Barry McHugh Betway HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 5/1

08 Dec 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Pearl Acclaim (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Totepool Racecourse Cash Back Available HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 10/1

06 Dec 16 Southwell (AW) Hit The Lights (IRE)J: Paul Quinn Betway HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 11/1

28 Nov 16 Newcastle (AW) Storm Trooper (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Betway Sprint HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 18/1

28 Nov 16 Newcastle (AW) Hit The Lights (IRE)J: Paul Quinn Betway Sprint HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 40/1

24 Nov 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Manatee Bay (GB)J: Barry McHugh Bet totetrifecta HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Nicholls's strike rate?: David Nicholls has won 552 of 4,748 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Nicholls do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 32 wins from 147 runners (21.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Nicholls?: Adrian Nicholls, with 1,823 runners since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 232 (12.7%).
What is David Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 4,699 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.