What is Joseph Parr's strike rate?

Joseph Parr has won 117 of 1,071 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Joseph Parr do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 6 wins from 31 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Joseph Parr?

Harry Burns, with 109 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (7.3%).

Is Joseph Parr in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Joseph Parr's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 1,064 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Joseph Parr

1,071 runners in the lifetime window · 103 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

117–1,071

Wins / Runs

10.9%

Strike rate

n=1,071

331 (31%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=1,064 · 0.80 incl. margin

−340.13

£1 level stake

n=1,071 at SP · −31.8%

£982k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 13% (46 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,071 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 27.9% when favourite Harry Burns: 7.3% from 109 New recruits: 11.1% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (19.4%, n=31), clear of the yard's 10.9% baseline. Debutants struggle at 5.2% (n=58, Fair A/E 1.37). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 8% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −114.90 to a £1 stake over 274 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Harry Burns rides 10% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (7.3% vs 10.9%, A/E 0.77). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (19.1%, n=47) and on Soft going (18.2%, n=55). The stable star of the record: G'daay (GB) — 7 wins from 54 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.9%+0.0

n=129 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −37.43

New recruits · first run for the yard

11.1%+0.2

n=45 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −15.50

Debutants · first career start

5.2%−5.7

n=58 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −19.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

13%+2.1

n=46 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +1.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.7%−2.2

n=46 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −20.67

When favourite

27.9%

n=140 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −30.22

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8%−2.9

n=274 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −114.90

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.9

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With James Doyle 32.3% vs 10.9% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 18.1% vs 10.9% · n=116

With Daniel Muscutt 18.2% vs 10.9% · n=99

Off a 0-7-day break 19.1% vs 10.9% · n=47

On Soft going 18.2% vs 10.9% · n=55

At Nottingham 19.4% vs 10.9% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,063 117 11% −332.13

Hurdle 6 0 0% −6.00

NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 625 69 11% −216.39

Good to Firm 171 22 12.9% −34.24

Good 153 12 7.8% −80.00

Soft 55 10 18.2% +34.50

Good to Soft 53 3 5.7% −33.50

Heavy 11 1 9.1% −7.50

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 164 22 13.4% −36.61

Chelmsford (AW) 136 10 7.4% −67.88

Kempton (AW) 99 14 14.1% −32.79

Lingfield (AW) 99 10 10.1% −35.10

Southwell (AW) 90 11 12.2% −13.51

Yarmouth 65 7 10.8% +2.50

Windsor 39 3 7.7% −27.00

Brighton 38 4 10.5% −27.08

Newmarket 37 3 8.1% −18.25

Newcastle (AW) 37 2 5.4% −30.50

Nottingham 31 6 19.4% +9.91

Leicester 29 3 10.3% −6.75

Sandown 23 2 8.7% −14.75

Epsom Downs 19 4 21.1% −0.12

Newmarket 18 0 0% −18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 419 56 13.4% −82.17

Class 5 383 38 9.9% −146.95

Class 4 205 19 9.3% −86.26

Class 3 39 3 7.7% −3.75

Class 2 22 1 4.5% −18.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 164 47 28.7% 1.03 −18.72

2nd–3rd fav 251 37 14.7% 0.85 −58.91

4th–6th fav 324 23 7.1% 0.88 −103.50

7th+ in betting 332 10 3% 0.93 −159.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

G'daay (GB) 54 7 20 10 Jul 25

Sun Festival (GB)from Roger Ingram 45 4 17 10 Mar 26

Prince Of Bel Lir (IRE)then K R Burke 44 6 13 23 Apr 25

Mc'ted (GB)then Michael Keady 40 6 17 13 Jan 25

Roman Dynasty (IRE) 35 2 13 12 Oct 23

Hello Me (IRE) 32 7 14 11 Nov 23

Kalamunda (GB) 28 5 8 5 Nov 26

The Green Man (IRE)then Danny Brooke 27 4 12 12 Oct 24

Revolucion (GB)then Grace Harris 27 1 9 15 Apr 24

Tennessee Gold (FR) 26 3 7 5 Jul 26

Enigmatic (IRE)from Alan Bailey 26 3 11 4 Nov 22

Lethal Touch (GB)then Mlle Gaelle Gernay 23 4 10 12 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 103 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Bailey (3) and Owen Burrows (3); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

24 have since run for another yard, most often for Michael Scudamore (2); 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 7

Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

755118149131020811

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Burns

10% of all rides
7.3% SR · A/E 0.77

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Burns 109 8 7.3% −61.65

Daniel Muscutt 99 18 18.2% +11.51

Alice Bond 88 6 6.8% −34.00

Jack Mitchell 76 10 13.2% −4.63

Luke Morris 54 4 7.4% −24.75

David Probert 39 5 12.8% −10.50

Dylan Hogan 36 1 2.8% −33.12

James Doyle 31 10 32.3% +10.67

Darragh Keenan 31 2 6.5% +14.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

117

Archived wins

£982k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 25 wins

Enigmatic (IRE) — Volkswagen Van Centre Leeds Optional Claiming Handicap Pontefract · Sep 2021 · Class 2

£16,200

Beauty Viva (GB) — Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2024 · Class 3

£15,462

The Green Man (IRE) — Clean Up With Pps Handicap York · Jun 2023 · Class 4

£10,468

Notable horses

G'daay (GB) Hello Me (IRE) Prince Of Bel Lir (IRE) Mc'ted (GB) Kalamunda (GB) Lucayan (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mehmas (IRE) 11.5% · 9–78

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,219 runs since 2020 (753 horses).

Havana Grey (GB) 7.1% · 4–56

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,599 runs since 2022 (419 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 422.

Garswood (GB) 12.7% · 7–55

Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,922 runs since 2018 (163 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.8% from 133.

Adaay (IRE) 13% · 7–54

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,968 runs since 2020 (192 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6% from 499.

Toronado (IRE) 8.9% · 4–45

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,906 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 199. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.

Prince Of Lir (IRE) 13.6% · 6–44

Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,386 runs since 2020 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,071 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,071 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2020 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Kalamunda (GB)J: Cieren Fallon AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7.5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 12/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Wield (GB)J: Luke Morris Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 10th 25/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Honeymoon Bear (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 25/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Amarachi (IRE)J: Oliver Carmichael Set Your Limits With Unibet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 2nd 5/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Midnight's Dream (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 3/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sonbelievable (GB)J: Tom Marquand Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 2/1F

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Love You More (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 4/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Wield (GB)J: Harry Burns CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 33/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Amarachi (IRE)J: Oliver Carmichael CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 11/2

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Honeymoon Bear (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sacred Rhythm (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Portman Blue (GB)J: Sean Levey Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 11/4F

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sonbelievable (GB)J: Luke Morris Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 100/30

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Midnight's Dream (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 13/8F

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Midnight's Dream (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Download The Raceday Ready App Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 7/4F

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Amarachi (IRE)J: David Egan Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 5/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Little Copper (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Racing TV EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 11th 500/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Honeymoon Bear (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 10th 15/2

05 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Portman Blue (GB)J: David Egan Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 1st 7/4F

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wield (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 3) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Joseph Parr's strike rate?: Joseph Parr has won 117 of 1,071 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Joseph Parr do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 6 wins from 31 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Joseph Parr?: Harry Burns, with 109 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (7.3%).
Is Joseph Parr in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Joseph Parr's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 1,064 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.